Friday, May 21, 2010

A weird answer to a question nobody was asking.

"Interleague play for American League teams typically is what a reachable par 5 is for PGA pros: par is a bad score. It's the perfect opportunity to pad your score."

It kind of depends which NL teams you're talking about.

The Royals would probably be pleasantly surprised to go 6-6 in 12 games vs. the Phillies, Dodgers, and Cardinals.


"Indeed, AL playoff berths have been won by beating up National League teams. Last year the four AL playoff teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Angels) played .581 baseball against AL teams but .653 baseball against NL teams."

Must I explain the flawed logic of this conclusion?

I promise you, the .581 winning percentage in 142 games was more important than the .653 winning percentage in 20 games.

Get an abacus and figure it out yourself.


"But get this: AL superiority is about to be diminished, or even wiped out altogether."

I wouldn't draw any grand conclusions based on the overall head-to-head results, anyway, but that's quite a bold prediction, I'll give him that.


"The NL has closed the talent gap on the AL and actually has a shot at winning interleague play, which begins tonight, for first time since 2003. Don't believe it?"

I believe the NL can win more than half the interleague games, yes.

I'm not so sure the NL has closed the talent gap.

Halladay transferred one really great pitcher.

Oh, and Melky Cabrera, of course. He is hitting almost .200 with 0 HRs.


"Guess which league has averaged more runs per game one-quarter of the way through this season? That's right, the league without the DH, the NL. The on-base and slugging percentages are nearly identical."

Maybe the NL has lousy pitchers and lousy fielders.


"In the NL, poor teams of recent years have shown significant improvement this year, especially the Nationals, Padres and Pirates."

Yeah, but ... maybe it's because they're playing lousy NL teams.

Utilizing basic principles of math and stuff, if one team is winning, another team is losing. If the Nationals, Padres, and Pirates are surprisingly good, it means they are beating somebody who's surprisingly bad (Brewers, Astros, and Rockies).

I can do the same thing with AL teams Please note that the Blue Jays are 7 games over .500, when I figured the Blue Jays would win about 40 games this season.



"Two other factors stand out: the declines of the DH and shortstop positions in the AL. DH production has been trending downward for five years. The league is littered with aging DHs who carry a below-average slugging percentage: Travis Hafner, Nick Johnson, Hideki Matsui, Eric Chavez, Pat Burrell (since cut from Tampa Bay) and Ken Griffey. The overall OPS out of the DH spot (.726) is below league average (.733). Think about that for a minute: the league gets to use an extra hitter who doesn't have to play defense, and it fills the spot with below-average hitting."

Fair enough observation on its own, I suppose.

I know that the DH won't even play in half the interleague games and, when the AL rules are used, I also know that the NL DH won't be a full-time DH. So you're comparing current AL players to former AL players instead of comparing current AL players to current NL players.

As for the AL shortstops, they may be declining vis a vis their glory days, but that still doesn't mean '83 Ripken is suiting up for the Mets anytime soon.

Is that the totality of the argument? Hanley Ramirez, who has been in the NL for five years, is better than, say, Alexei Ramirez?

Sold. The NL must be better.


"So go ahead with the usual jokes about the AL being the varsity and the NL being the junior varsity, or the NL teams being the homecoming teams on the AL schedules. But this year interleague play just might be more competitive."

Not for nothing, but is that really a usual joke?

Dog walks into a bar, sits down, and says to the bartender, "I'll have a ... (long pause) ... beer." Bartender says, "The AL is the varsity and the NL is the junior varsity."

Ba dum bum.

1 comment:

Darren Felzenberg said...

Of course, Alexei Ramirez drives in five runs ...