The Yankees are heavy favorites, evidently.

12-1?

OK, fine.

I hope 12 out of 13 experts are correct.

So the Guardians are not a third-round bye?

“They’re way better than anything the Yankees will have faced this year,” Sal said of Cleveland. “The bullpen, the defense, even the lineup, while it’s not as deep as the Yankees, it’s far better than what the Yankees saw with the Royals. So they’re gonna face their toughest challenge.”

He is correct in the sense that the perception is incorrect. The perception is that the AL Central are a bunch of farm teams for the coasts and that the Yankees have an easy path to the World Series.

As for the Yankees' lineup, it's lots of things.

It's effective, as explained many times before, mostly due to walks and home runs. They hit into too many double plays, have trouble hitting situationally, and have a slumpy way of forgetting how to hit with RISP.

One thing it is not is deep.

Even with Gleyber doing the job from the leadoff spot and, in my opinion. a competent catcher who is due for some productivity from the cleanup spot ... the Yankee lineup is basically two great hitters and that's about it.

“They don’t have the starters that Kansas City had...but the Yankees don’t hit in the postseason! That’s been the given. I wish I could say I was encouraged with the first four games of the Yankees postseason...but the Guardians can pitch and play excellent defense, and I don’t think they’re gonna be intimidated at all by the Yankees. This is gonna be a very difficult series...I think the Guardians can win this series very easily.”

The Yankees also have a tendency to beat themselves.

They mostly played "clean" in the first round of the playoffs.

I foresee an infuriating situation where the Guardians score a few tide-turning runs that the Yankees give away. A walk on a pitch clock violation; a catcher's interference; a wild pitch; and an error on a tailor-made GIDP.

 

 

There's a word for fly balls that are almost home runs but caught by the outfielder.

They are known as outs.

Almost fair balls are foul, almost strikes are balls, almost wins are losses.

Besides, I'll take my chances in an extra-innings battle of the bullpens.

When Erik Kratz talks, people listen.

He is certainly entitled to his opinion. The proof is in the pudding and I don't think he's correct in this instance. In any case, the "ex-Yankee" angle is just click bait. When you think of ex-Yankees, Kratz falls somewhere between Mike Jerzembeck and Henry Rodriguez.

It's both. Why can't it be both? It's obviously both.

"You can blame the enigma that is Carlos Rodon, he of three lights-out innings before imploding in the fourth, all you want for the Yankees’ Game 2 loss, but the fact is, he had one bad inning and the bullpen was aces for five behind him."

I mean, he sort of kept his team in the game, if that counts for anything. I suppose it does.

It wasn't a complete disaster. I've seen worse.

But "one bad inning" always means it's a bad start. You don't get credit for almost getting out of an inning.

"To Boomer & Gio, it was the other side, where the Yanks had just five hits entering the ninth and squandered multiple opportunities, that bears the brunt of the loss."

Sure.

Two runs isn't enough.

So in yesterday's game, the offense was bad and the starting pitcher was bad.

The bullpen was excellent. Both games. Zero runs combined.

" '... he pitched much better this year than he did in previous years, and you would think that he’s gonna be a guy that's gonna at least get us through six innings – but they used eight pitchers last night.' ”

Did he pitch much better this year?

He got a lot of wins.

He surged at the end of the year to get his ERA down to around 4.00.

I certainly did not think he would get through six innings.

He pitched 175 innings in 32 starts. A lot of those starts against non-playoff teams. Do the math, kind sir.

The other aspect which unfortunately played out is that the guy seems to be a head case, which is bad news in the playoffs.

Et tu, Clase?

Most Yankee fans envision a disastrous blown save in the playoffs by a second-rate "closer" and they blame Cashman for his unwillingness to spend extravagantly on ... who?

"We don't want another Aroldis Chapman nightmare."

So who's the reliable closer?

There aren't any left.

Score some runs, play good defense, and don't rely on one player to be infallible.

This is a convoluted way of saying it ...

 ... but look around what is happening in the playoffs.

Mariano Rivera isn't walking through that door.

The Yankees already have a good bullpen. It's a strength of the team, not a weakness. That includes Holmes, even though he deserved his demotion.

 

Diaz just blew a save for the Mets in the eighth inning. I'm not surprised at all. We shouldn't forget that he also blew a save in the first game of the Braves doubleheader, setting the stage for Lindor's memorable home run. I don't think Diaz was expected to get a seven-out save today, but he couldn't even get through the eighth.

Now we'll see if the Phillies "closer" can close it out in the ninth.

Hader was "hittable" in the first round, even though most of the runs allowed weren't charged to him.

 

Devin Williams: 1.25 ERA in the regular season, 21.60 ERA in the postseason.

 

I believe in Clase. I also think he's one of a kind of all the current players in MLB. 

So unless you can imagine a scenario where the Guardians are going to trade Clase to the Yankees, the Yankees should feel quite comfortable going with what they've got.

It's just ten innings.

Nine and two-thirds, to be precise.

But the postseason ERA for Clay Holmes is 0.00.

The distrust and anger directed towards this player is overwrought and misguided.

Also, I will predict right now that, at some point in his career, he will allow at least one run in the postseason.

When it happens, the Yankee fans will pounce with a collective, "Told ya so."

Kudos to Peter Sblendorio at the Daily News for noticing that Clay Holmes pitched well in yesterday's game.

Stroman out.

My blog post from September 17:

"So that's five. If you want to put Stroman on the playoff roster, that's six, though I'm not sure why you would do that.

In what possible scenario is Stroman going to be more reliable out of the bullpen than Holmes? In which pitching statistic is Stroman better than Holmes?"

Opinions!

One big surprise over at MLB.com:

"Although the Dodgers won the NL West by five games with MLB's best record (98-64) and have a high-powered lineup featuring Shohei Ohtani (making his postseason debut after the first 50-50 season in MLB history), Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, our experts think the Padres are headed for their second NLDS triumph over Los Angeles in three years."

Oh, I see what he's saying. OK.

“Something magical happened. That moment is as significant in met history as any. You cannot hit a bigger home run. In fact, no one ever has. He is the first player in baseball history to hit a lead-changing home run in the ninth inning or later in a winner-take-all game in the history of the sport. That is a moment that no other fanbase has.”

So while I instantly thought of Gibson and Carter in the World Series, those weren't winner-take-all games.

OK, Mr. McGonigle.

We're good.

 

For the past few months, I have been thinking that the Mets had a better chance than the Yankees to win the World Series. If the Mets make the playoffs. If the Mets get past the first round.

The Mets barely cleared those hurdles, but they cleared those hurdles.

I'm not emotionally hedging, it's just my analysis of the teams.

I don't think the Yankees are getting past the Royals.

A typical take is Andy Martino's, where he acknowledges some of the team's glaring and persistent shortcomings, but minimizes them.

I, on the other hand, predict these shortcomings be amplified in the postseason, and it will be exceedingly frustrating to see a team lose because of unforced errors:

"The Yanks must also squash some of the mistakes that popped up a little too frequently during the season. They’ve blundered on the bases – can’t run into dopey outs with this much firepower in the lineup – and they made 93 errors, the seventh-most in MLB. Of the six teams with more, only one made the playoffs – the Mets, who had 94."

I also specifically predict, while rooting desperately for the opposite, is that the crucible of the playoffs will crush deer-in-the-headlights Volpe. I expect horrible performances at the bat, on the basepaths (assuming he gets on base), and in the field.

The Yankees will not play small ball. I don't even know what Suzyn is talking about. It's whether or not they can homer their way out of sloppy play. It's how many people are on base when they hit their home runs.

Pete Alonso does nothing in big spots.

 

Diaz is the closer.

We know Maton wasn't going to pitch the ninth.

Therefore, Maton wasn't going to get a save.

Therefore, Maton didn't blow a non-existent save.

I know I'm the only person on the planet consistently bugged by the misunderstanding of this particular stat, but it's easy to solve. Anything before the ninth inning is a blown hold.

It really is OK for the official scorer to make a judgment call.

A journeyman middle reliever in the sixth inning with the bases loaded and a one-run lead is not expected to close out the next four innings. If he keeps the game close and merely allows a sac fly, he gets a blown save.

The save stat is silly and arbitrary in its own right.

The blown save stat is not accurate in any way.

Maybe 1/4th of blown saves are actually blown saves -- a game you legitimately expected to win, where your lead in runs exceeded the number of innings remaining, and your closer was pitching.

Also, if people are going to assume that your team lost a game in which you blew the save, then just adjust the stat likewise. Nobody gets a blown save if your team wins the game. Or maybe have a team stat that accounts for this.

Byes in the first round are advantageous.

"Sal says the Mets have the manager in Carlos Mendoza, the star power with Francisco Lindor, and the collection of hitters who know their roles and get it done in big spots, from Jose Iglesias to Tyrone Taylor and Jesse Winker."

I'm not saying the Mets can't win the World Series. I'm not saying the Mets won't win the World Series

I will say that, if the Mets don't win tomorrow, Mendoza's stock plummeted based on one play.

Why wasn't Diaz pitching in the eighth inning, Grady Little? I mean, Carlos Mendoza?

"As everything seems to be coming together, Sal says these Mets have a good shot to be one of the more improbable World Series champions in recent memory."

Errr ... the Texas Rangers from 2023 don't qualify as recent? 

 

“'At this point, I don’t think we can put any ceiling on this team,' Sal said. 'Anything is possible. They continue to show us how good they’ve been. I think they have as good a chance as anybody else to win the World Series.'”

Not true.

Because four teams have already advanced past the first round.

Because: Math.

At the time this article was written, the Mets were a two-game losing streak away from being eliminated from the playoffs.

Now, it's a one-game losing streak.

 

Brian Cashman is smarter than you.

By "you," I don't mean the Diamondbacks owner, though Cashman is smarter than the Diamondbacks owner.

I mean "you," all the people who zeroed in on Montgomery one year ago just because they thought Montgomery's limited success for a World Series champion makes Brian Cashman look ridiculous.

So stupid.

Baseball players move all over the league all the time.

The Mets have ex-Yankees Severino and Bader, who the Yankees just released or didn't pursue. 

Did I forget to mention Adam Ottavino? "How could the Yankees get rid of bullpen help? I'm so much smarter than Brian Cashman! I'm going to call up WFAN and let them know."

Imagine my surprise to see Gio Urshela on the Braves.

In 2024, he went from one playoff team, the Tigers, to another playoff team! Everywhere that Gio Urshela goes, the team wins. Not really, but in 2024 only.

Giancarlo Stanton looks ready for the playoffs.

On Thursday, Stanton had a home run and four RBIs and is ready for the playoffs. He is the "X-Factor."

Which is really good news.

Because on Tuesday, he was 0-for-4 with 4 strikeouts. On Tuesday, he was the "K-Factor."

Verdugo is no Roy White. Verdugo is not even Rondell White. But he's going to start in LF for the Yankees in the playoffs.

Pay attention, people.

The Yankees are not going to put this guy in the outfield in the playoffs.

It's not as if Dominguez is tearing the cover off the ball. A .200 batting average and a couple of home runs.

I find all of this baffling, but I shouldn't be surprised anymore. The fielding is the easy part. Go shag some fly balls in the summer afternoon. Hit the cutoff man once in a while.

Learn the basics and fundamentals of playing baseball. 

Sure, the Yankee prospects are "young" by professional baseball standards, but I knew how to do this stuff when I was ten years old.

Heck, Gleyber plays baseball as if he doesn't understand the fundamentals of physics and how physical objects interact in the world. "If I slide when I'm fifteen feet away from third base, will I reach the base? If I throw the baseball to a spot that is ten feet away from second base, won't gravity pull it back to Volpe? Like, the Coriolis Effect?"

Nice slide.

He is hitting well lately, but he still plays like Larry from Accounting at the company's softball game.

Weak take.

I have relatively high hopes for the future of Jasson Dominguez, but his recent hot streak brought his batting average up to .195.

We know why the Yankees prefer Verdugo.

He isn't a horrible situational hitter, but most of all ... HE CAN FIELD.

As for Holmes, this is a silly narrative that has taken on a life of its own. 

He is in a slump, but he's a good pitcher, and the only reason anyone notices his slump is because he was designated as the closer. The non-Holmes bullpen is quite good, but its collective ERA is not 0.00. Too many BBs, HBPs, wild pitches, wild pickoff throws, and other self-defeating nonsense.

Is Tim Mayza going to be on the postseason roster? He allowed a home run yesterday vs. Baltimore! Also, a walk!

Is Ian Hamilton going to be on the postseason roster? He allowed a home run yesterday, too! He doesn't have what it takes. He chokes in the big games.

The anti-Holmes Society is out of control and has been for a while. He can induce a double play, he doesn't give up a lot of home runs, he has 29 saves this season. As is the fashion, he tries to be too perfect, resulting in high Ks and high BBs. It wouldn't shock me if he is used during a playoff game and bails out a starter who has left runners on base.

As for the closer, it's fine. Try Weaver or Kahnle or maybe one of the lefties if the situation demands. I hope it works out in the playoffs. Each game is "must win" or "pivotal," isn't it?

I'll worry about 2025 when it gets here. Holmes will never close again, and that's fine. The thing is, if you give Weaver 100 "save opportunities," and you surround him with a garbage infield, he's going to get a lot of blown saves as well.

Keep it up, Gleyber.

Tearing it up in the leadoff spot and in September. Can he keep it up in October? Did a flip switch and maybe he stopped trying to hit home runs every time?

Opinions are like armpits.

I have no particular predictive ability or inside information regarding who will be named to the Yankees' starting rotation the playoffs.

I seem to be the only person who is insistent that Clarke Schmidt should be in the starting rotation.

This isn't a difficult decision, in my opinion.

Schmidt is a better choice than Rodon or Cortes. Schmidt will not go deep into games, so maybe that's why the Yankees will pass him over.

Rodon has been good lately, but I'm more concerned about a Rodon first-inning meltdown than I am about Schmidt's inability to get through the lineup three times.