Sunday, November 24, 2019

"People always say ..."

"If the Yankees still didn’t have Jacoby (We Hardly Knew Ye) Ellsbury on the books and hadn’t made the trade for Giancarlo Stanton, how much money would they be willing to throw at Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg?"

Gee, I don't know.

Maybe $800 thousand?

No.

$1 billion?

No.

$250 billion.

If not for the contracts of Ellsbury and Stanton, the Yankees would offer $250 billion to Gerrit Cole. One-year contract worth $250 billion.


We go through this every year, over and over, and some people never learn.

Most people apply their personal economic rules to an infinite Corporation currently worth $3 billion.

The Yankees don't want to overpay for Cole or Strasburg.

Cashman has some vague upper limit based on the salary tax, but that's mostly PR.

Lupica's stupid observation is particularly moot since the Yankees only owe Ellsbury between $0 and $26 million.

Cole is going to get, say, 7 years, $225 million, escalator clauses, player opt outs, the whole shebang. If the Yankees really want him, the Yankees will not be outbid.

So, in the year 2027, Cole's salary will be $40 million ... and Cole will probably be washed up by that time.

Any team that signs this man to a long-term contract knows the risks involved. Or any long-term baseball contract, for that matter. Or any long-term anything, for that matter.

But the thing that's stopping the Yankees from pulling the trigger is a long-forgotten $5 million buyout of Jacoby Ellsbury?

No way.


"The books" Lupica is referring to aren't even the correct books.

The income statement is blah blah blah. The Yankees are far more concerned with the balance sheet.

Don't measure a 2-year $26 million contract vs. the $360 million the Yankees will spend on player salaries during those two years (even though $26 million doesn't sound like a heckuva lot when framed in those terms).

Instead, measure a 2-year, $26 million contract vs. $3 billion in assets.


"Don Mattingly belongs in the Hall of Fame.

So does Thurman Munson.

People always say that Mattingly’s level of excellence didn’t last long enough.

Neither did Sandy Koufax’s."

So take Koufax out.

Oh, it's too late to do that.


"Not saying that you compare Mattingly’s excellence with Koufax’s.
Nobody would ever say that."

Nobody would ever say the thing I just said.


"But starting in 1984 and going through the 1989 season (and before his back gave out), Don Mattingly knocked in 684 runs.

His batting averages were these: .343, .324, .352, .327, .311, 303.

In his prime, his fellow players, in a New York Times poll, once voted him the best player in the game.

There are a lot of guys in the Hall of Fame who were never considered the best in the game for one day of their careers."

This is true.

Also, there are a lot of guys not in the Hall of Fame who would have won a players' poll as best player in the game.

That's the end of Lupica's argument. Since Sandy Koufax had a short career with a relatively short period of supremacy, then Mattingly and Munson belong in the HOF.

Not a tough sell to a New York audience.

You forgot Ron Guidry and Don Gullett; Orel Hershiser and Kevin Brown; Fernando Valenzuela and Bob Welch.

Not to mention Lou Whitaker, Jeff Kent, Larry Walker, Bobby Grich, Fred Lynn, and Jorge Posada.

I wouldn't use Koufax as a HOF shoo-in. He captured the imagination of lots of voters during a super-dominant stretch during a high-mound pitchers' era. Koufax is a low bar for HOFers.

Mattingly probably passes that low bar, I suppose, and so does Dale Murphy ... and Al Oliver ... and Dwight Evans ... and ...

Thursday, November 21, 2019

The question is ...

Mark Teixeira with some insightful insider commentary:


 "Playing in New York is not for everybody And maybe Gerrit Cole will thrive in New York. But if you told me, as the top free agent on the market, and I'm a West Coast guy, and the Dodgers and Angels are sitting there drooling over me. I'm probably going to look there before I look at the Yankees. I think money being equal, he's not going to the Yankees. If the Yankees completely blow everyone out of the water, then he'll end up in pinstripes."

So Cole will not sign with the Yankees, unless he does.

Sunday, November 17, 2019

Gerrit Cole has never won a World Series.

Neither has Clayton Kershaw.

Neither have a lot of big free agent players.

Difference is, for some reason, Cole is the Face of Successful Championship Megadeals.



Then, in order to support his current argument about the value of megadeals, Mike Lupica wrote the following, which seems to reverse his stance for the past fifteen years:

"Rodriguez had been with the Yankees since 2004, opted out of his old Rangers contract during the 2007 World Series, re-upped with the Yankees for the ’08 season. The Yankees won it all in 2009. They couldn’t have done it without him..."


Then Lupica just embarrasses himself, continuing his weird fascination with David Price"

"In the third season after David Price signed his contract with the Red Sox, they won another World Series. And absolutely, hands-down, 100 percent don’t win it without him."

The Red Sox don't win the World Series without David Price? How do you figure?

"Whether or not he’s always pitched like an ace since joining the Red Sox, when they needed him to pitch like a total star in the ALCS against the Astros, starting and relieving, he did that."

That's terrific.

He gave up 4 runs in 10 2/3 innings during the ALCS against the Astros.

You know how the Red Sox could have conceivably won without Price?

If they pitched a guy who gave up 3 runs in 10 2/3 innings.


Then the same observation about Scherzer. He signed a big contract, he pitched pretty well at times in the playoffs, and his team won the World Series.




I can list dozens of nobodies who pitched better than Price and Scherzer in small sample size crunch time.

  • Lance McCullers Jr.
  • Brad Penny
  • David Weathers

Yeah, man. The Red Sox didn't need to pay David Price all that money to win the World Series. They just needed David Weathers and his 0.82 postseason ERA.


So what does this prove?

It doesn't prove anything.

I can find a list of players who fit a criteria and a list of accomplishments and there will always be a cross-section of the two lists.


Most of the time, megadeals don't pay off, if the sole goal is to win the World Series.

Not because the players are bad or because the deals are ill-advised. It's just because winning the World Series is difficult, only one team wins it per year, and one player can't win it all by themselves.


Friday, November 15, 2019

2019 NL MVP


BBWAA

NamePoints
Cody Bellinger362
Christian Yelich317
Anthony Rendon242
Ketel Marte198
Ronald Acuna Jr.155
Nolan Arenado120
Pete Alonso102
Freddie Freeman90
Juan Soto45
Jacob deGrom44
Josh Donaldson27
Trevor Story26
Jack Flaherty9
J.T. Realmuto8
Yasmani Grandal4
Max Muncy4
Stephen Strasburg4
Eugenio Suarez4
Hyun-Jin Ryu3
Paul Godschmidt2
Kolten Wong2
Kevin Pillar1
Max Scherzer1



Felz Poll
NamePoints
Cody Bellinger25
Christian Yelich24
Anthony Rendon11
Ronald Acuna Jr.5
Freddie Freeman3
Pete Alonso2

2019 AL MVP


BBWAA

NamePoints
Mike Trout355
Alex Bregman335
Marcus Semien228
DJ Lemahieu178
Xander Bogaerts147
Matt Chapman89
George Springer69
Mookie Betts67
Nelson Cruz62
Gerrit Cole61
Justin Verlander56
Rafael Devers40
Jorge Polanco20
Austin Meadows15
Francisco Lindor13
Carlos Santana9
Gleyber Torres8
Eddie Rosario6
Jose Abreu5
Max Kepler2
J.D. Martinez1
Yoan Mondaca1
Charlie Morton1
Matt Olson1
Jorge Soler1


Felz Poll
NamePoints
Mike Trout27
Alex Bregman22
Nelson Cruz5
DJ Lemahieu5
Mookie Betts3
Rafael Devers3
Xander Bogaerts2
Marcus Semien2
Jorge Polanco1

MVP Votes

Random observations:
  1. Lemahieu made a nice showing with fourth place.
  2. Neither Machado nor Harper received one vote.

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

2019 NL Cy Young Award

BBWAA
NamePoints
Jacob deGrom207
Hyun-Jin Ryu88
Max Scherzer72
Jack Flaherty69
Stephen Strasburg53
Mike Soroka9
Sonny Gray       4
Clayton Kershaw3
Walker Buehler2
Kirby Yates2
Patrick Corbin     1

Felz Poll
NamePoints
Jacob deGrom25
Hyun-Jin Ryu12
Stephen Strasburg11
Max Scherzer10
Mike Soroka6
Jack Flaherty3
Josh Hader2
Max Fried1


2019 AL Cy Young Award

BBWAA
NamePoints
Justin Verlander171
Gerrit Cole159
Charlie Morton75
Shane Bieber64
Lance Lynn18
Lucas Giolito8
Eduardo Rodriguez       8
Mike Minor7

Felz Poll
NamePoints
Justin Verlander28
Gerrit Cole21
Shane/Justin Bieber8
Mike Minor4
Charlie Morton4
Domingo German3
Zach Greinke2
Aroldis Chapman1
Lance Lynn1

This goes beyond gamesmanship

... and if it is widespread, then it's widespread cheating.

Saturday, November 02, 2019

I think Beltran will probably do a good job. Maybe. Who knows?

Carlos Beltran is a future HOFer who is one of the best postseason performers in the history of baseball.

In the 2006 NLCS, he hit .296 with 3 HRs and a 1.054 OPS.

In the last out of the series, Adam Wainwright threw a Big Boy Major League curveball and Beltran struck out.

That's the whole idea of competition. There's a highly-skilled person on the other side who is paid a lot of money to achieve a result contrary to your goals. Nobody ever batted 1.000 in major league baseball.

Mets fans suffering from PTSD have more than "occasional grumbles" about this at-bat from 13 years ago:

"Beltran's tenure with the Mets between 2005 and 2011 wasn't all smooth sailing. There are still occasional grumbles about his looking strikeout to end the 2006 National League Championship Series. He later clashed with the team over the timing of his knee surgery in 2010, and he was thrown under the bus by owner Fred Wilpon in 2011. He was eventually traded to the San Francisco Giants during the latter season."