Saturday, October 31, 2020

Manager of the Year is a symbol of baseball's destruction.

Please, I beg you, don't bring up Bob Gibson:

"In all likelihood, Cash will be a runaway winner of the American League manager of the year award. He guided the Rays (payroll $74.8 million) to an AL East title over the Yankees (payroll $165.7 million). But throughout the course of the season, during the playoffs and most especially in Game 6 of the World Series, Cash made no bones about the fact that he manages strictly by the plan set up by the Rays' analytics department."

It worked.

 

"With one out in the sixth of that fateful game, Cash came to get his ace Blake Snell, who was pitching the game of his life. Snell had just given up his second hit of the game, to the Dodgers' No. 9 hitter, Austin Barnes, and it was evident just how thoroughly the soul of the game has been destroyed."

I don't fully disagree ... I've complained about the same thing ... but it worked.

How many pitchers did the Dodgers use in Game Six?

Seven. 


"Meanwhile, a direct contrast to the Snell pulling was Dusty Baker, one of the few remaining old-school managers in the game. In the sixth inning of Game 5 of the ALCS, the red-hot Randy Arozarena was coming up with two men on, one out. Baker strode to the mound, had a brief conference with his ace, Zack Greinke, and elected to leave him in.

After Greinke struck out Arozarena, the Rays were able to load the bases with an infield single by Ji-Man Choi and still Baker, managing with his gut and trusting Greinke’s heart, didn’t make a move. His confidence was rewarded when Greinke struck out Mike Brosseau to end the inning."

This is some cherry-picking nonsense right here.

Not one starting pitcher in the World Series pitched into the seventh inning. Maybe the playoffs.


"It is no coincidence the five highest paid managers in baseball — Terry Francona ($4M), Joe Maddon ($4M), Bob Melvin ($3.25M), Joe Girardi ($3.25M) and Baker ($3M) — are all what you call their own men, mostly old school, who are able to manage as much with their gut as by the numbers. Joe Torre was the first old school manager to sound the alarm when Yankee GM Brian Cashman began intruding on his turf. 'You can’t remove the human element from the game,' he said."

Ummm ... look, there's a balance to be found. 

But Cash outperformed all of these highly-paid managers.

Except Baker, I guess, if you really want to ignore the payroll differential hammer that you've pummeled Cashman with for twenty years.

 

My other gripe is this:

The strategy worked, worked, worked, worked, worked, worked, worked, worked, worked, didn't work. 

Sorry, but this rather ground-breaking bullpen strategy works. It worked all season, it worked all the way to the World Series. The Rays even got two games on the Dodgers.

In Game Six, the Rays scored only one run ... against SEVEN Dodgers pitchers.

Don't you see it?

Don't you see what happened?

While you're focused on Cash's failed strategic move ... maybe ... this presumes that Snell just goes on to pitch, what, a complete game shutout? ... you're missing the fact that Baker beat him with the same strategy.

Why didn't Baker show more confidence in Tony Gonsolin?

 

You can't even name the Dodgers' closer, can you?

They don't have one, do they?

If their closer isn't closing during the World Series, then they don't have a closer.

A bunch of interchangeable pitchers with undetermined roles whose usage is based on matchups and other analytics.

Julio Arias has four saves in his career, and there he was getting the save in Game Six of the World Series.

That's the Dodgers using the Tampa Method to beat Tampa.



 

 




 



Saturday, October 24, 2020

Experts.

Which is better?

Your heart or your lungs?

It's a stupid question in the first place.

 

Do MLB execs really know more than you do?

I'm sure they have more in-depth knowledge of, like, the players in the Seattle bullpen ... but no more than a typical fantasy team owner.

Betts is hardly an unknown entity. The guy recently won an MVP.

Trout is better, even if his brilliance is old news.

I'll give mulligans in 2020 to Trout, Bellinger, Yelich, all MLB players, the entire world.

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Of course Game Three seems like Game Seven when you're down 2-0. No one comes back from 3-0 except ... wait a minute ... no way ...

In the NLCS between LA and Atlanta, Mike Lupica finds a way to connect it to?:

"If the Dodgers lose on Wednesday night, it is as good as losing their season, unless you see them as the second coming of the 2004 Red Sox. The Yankees were really good in ’04 on their way to getting ahead 3-0 in the American League Championship Series that is a part of baseball legend now. They were 6-1 that October before the sky came crashing down on them."

The Yankees lost Game Five.

There's no need to get defensive. There's no need to jump into the debate about the value of analytics. There's also no need to question the courage of the Yankees.

I'll make it easier:

  • The Yankees would have lost Game Two anyway.
  • The problem with the Game Two pitching move is that it jeopardized Game Four ... which the Yankee won anyway.

Why did the offense seize up in Game Five?

No one knows.

The same offense looked sharp all through the playoffs and even played some "small ball" throughout the playoffs. If sac flies count as "small ball."

Do the math. Runs scored in playoff games: 12, 10, 9, 5, 4, 5 ... and 1.

Of course, this optimistic evaluation ignores the ridiculous amount of strikeouts.

 

Gary Sanchez was very consistent in 2020 ...

... in fact, I don't think he was ever over .200 in terms of batting average.

Saturday, October 10, 2020

Said no one.

Lupica on twitter:

"People treated Gerrit Cole like he was Bob Gibson for pitching 5.1 innings on three days rest last night. Josh Beckett went on three days rest against the Yankees in Game 6 of the '03 Series and pitched a complete game shutout." 

"People" is multiple, yet I'm certain Lupica can't find one person who "treated" Gerrit Cole like he was Bob Gibson.

I know he's using hyperbole and this is not to be taken literally, but it's not even close.

2003 was a different world. Pay attention to what's right in front of your eyes, baseball fans.

I know the list in the foggy memories of old men:

  • Jack Morris was 29 years ago, pops.
  • Bob Gibson was, heck, I don't even know ... are we talking about '67? ... 53 years ago?
  • Schilling, Unit, and even Bumgarner ... a lot has changed in six years, forget about sixty.
  • In 19-aught-3, Iron Joe McGinnity pitched 400 innings in one day. He was the starting pitcher for all the teams in the league. His W-L record for one day, with all the double headers, was an astonishing 16-8.

Look, I know you don't like Yankee players generally and, in particular, you don't like highly-paid Yankee free agents.

Cole pitched great last night. Not as good as ... who was it you brought up? Josh Beckett in 1993?

You are correct.

Cole pitched great, and yet it certainly does not take its place among the greatest playoff pitching performances of all time. 

Which is why no one ever said it did.

 

Wait until Lupica gets a look at the upcoming ALCS. 

Each game, at least one team will score double-digits and Lupica will compare MLB  scores to NFL scores (har-dee-har-har).

Forget about Josh Beckett in '93.

The ALCS will make Lupica pine for the playoff excellence of Kenny Rogers or George Frazier. 


Why isn't anyone blaming the Yankee offense?

The offense scored one whole run.

In nine innings.

In a decisive Game Five.

With a Steroid Ball and a Little League ballpark.

Against a pitching staff they'd seen 15 times in a month. 

Yeah, but ... think about what you're saying and why it isn't correct. Also, don't listen to Alex Rodriguez, huh?

The goofy Game Two pitching decision was misguided. It didn't work out. Happ was shellacked and one might argue it was largely because his manager didn't optimize his ability to succeed.

Blah blah blah.

It was also a self-conscious attempt to beat the Rays at their own game.

It was a move that made the Yankees' brass look silly and maybe even intimidated.

But ... please remember the situation.

The Yankees had won Game One.

Cole was going to pitch Game Five.

The strategy with a thin starting staff is to get one win in Games Two through Four.

They got that win, didn't they?

Montgomery bailed out Boone in Game Four, simple as that.

There is no particular reason to suspect that Garcia was going to cruise through Game Two if they'd kept him in the game. His first postseason short sample size experience leaves him with a stellar postseason ERA of 9.00.

Most envisioned Happ starting Game Four, but no one can tell me in retrospect that he would have pitched better than Montgomery. 

All the disastrous moves or genius moves cancelled each other out and got the Yankees back to square one with Cole on the mound in a winner-take-all Game Five.

Cole pitched great and the bullpen also pitched great.

The offense scored one measly run.

That's why they lost.

That's not because of Boone's shenanigans in Game Two.

 

"That time."

"They had Gerrit Cole, on whom they had lavished a $324 million contract, the richest in history, to start the game. They had their closer, Aroldis Chapman, on whom they have lavished the richest closer contract in history, on the mound in a tie game in the bottom of the 8th."

Both of whom lived up to their contracts. 

Regular season, postseason, and Game Five. 

Is this even a point of contention? 

  

"And they lost to a team from Tampa that, compared to them, at least payroll-wise, is a Mom and Pop operation."

Tampa is smart and tough.

They put a premium on defense.

They played with an edge and took it to the Yankees.

They are better than the Yankees.

Brousseau got his revenge in the regular season and again in the postseason.

The Yankees lost the division by 7 games in a 60-game season, for crying out loud.

As for the payroll discrepancy, it's not too difficult to field a great team on the cheap. The players just have to be young. Pre-free agency.

While I realize we're grading on a curve, it may be a good time to remind Lupica that the Rays have as many Championship rings as I do.

Besides ... the Yankees lost the whole series by what ... one run?

The Yankees went 4-3 in the postseason.

They clobbered Bieber and Snell in the postseason, demonstrating they can hit good pitching.

Happ got shelled, Tanaka got shelled (with a bit of bad luck), and whether it's inability to perform under pressure or a general inability to close out a series ... it's a small sample size, don't you think? ... the offense was shut down in Game Five.

It's fair to judge this team poorly ... it's fair to ridicule Stanton for keeping the bat on his shoulder in the ninth inning ... it's a thin line between winning and losing, that's for sure. Between being a hero and a goat.


"They have the rest of another $300 million contract, the one belonging to Giancarlo Stanton, on the books nearly to the end of this decade."

Right.

The guy who hit six (forgotten) home runs in five playoff games. 


"And not only do they lose an elimination game this October the way they did last October — Chapman giving up a season-ending home run to Jose Altuve that time — they do it one round earlier. "

I love this.

Lupica spends a whole year ripping the "Trash Can Asterisks" every chance he gets ... then glides on by Altuve's (supposedly bogus) home run.

I don't love Chapman, but give me a break.

It simply isn't his fault. Not last year and not this year.

 

"They back up. They lose another big October series for the same reason they lost the last two games of the American League Championship Series to the Astros three years ago, when there was that baseball rising in the Bronx and they seemed to have become the Yankees again:

When they stopped hitting home runs, they lost."

The last part is true. That's the game in 2020. It's aggravating and downright boring.

The first few playoff games had some encouraging signs ... sac flies?!?!?!

But the same can be said for the Rays. When they stopped hitting home runs, they lost. The same can also be said of the A's and the Astros.

I wish I foresaw a different future for the Yankees and MLB, but every team is like this.

Every postseason home run record is falling. 

I feel the itch, I wish the genie would go back in the bottle. I have visions in my head of Willie Randolph and Roy White and Lou Piniella. Let's get more players like that! Except there aren't any. They already have a couple of the few remaining ... Urshela and LeMahieu ... neither of whom did themselves proud in the 2020 playoffs.

The trick is to keep hitting home runs.

As for Boone and the Judge-era Yankees, maybe it will be all the sweeter when they finally close the deal.


Some self-examination can be worthwhile.

I'm going to watch the Yankees with an emotional commitment. I'm a longtime fan and it's a habit, a pleasure, a hobby.

But this Game Five was not exciting.

It's a typical 2020 all-or-nothing stylistic disaster.

  • 17 innings pitched.
  • 6 hits.
  • 3 home runs (all cheap-o).
  • 100% of the runs scored on home runs (did I mention they were all cheap-o)?
  • 24 strikeouts.

Remember when baseball players displayed various offensive skills?

Remember when the game was dynamic?

Remember when ... I don't know quite how to explain this ... when players were different from one another?

One guy had a good eye and could steal bases; another guy swung for the fences but struck out too much; another guy was good in the clutch and could hit the ball to the opposite field; you could identify players by unique batting stances.

There are some exceptions, of course. DJ LeMahieu and Tim Anderson come to mind.

But 2020 MLB is a league of 500 Danny Tartabulls.

A parade of indistinguishable .220 hitters who try to hit a home run every time up and, due to small ballparks, juiced balls, and endless 95 MPH fastballs supplying the power, they are able to do so every 15 at-bats or so.

Gary Sanchez hits .150 and Freddie Freeman hits .350. So Freeman is undoubtedly better. But they both have the same power numbers, because just about everyone has the same power numbers.

If you aren't striking out, you're hitting a home run.

Fly balls are home runs, and home runs are upper-deck home runs.

 

Game Five wasn't a classic at all. I'm not lashing out just because my team lost. 

It's supposed to be exciting when you reach the late innings of a Game Five and the score is tied.

This was just a tedious exercise of waiting to see who was going to get one over the fence first.

It was the Rays this time.




Friday, October 09, 2020

What shall we do when data contradicts our pre-conceived conclusions?

I know what to do.

It's the only intelligent and mature way to handle this situation. It's a three-step process:

  1. Ignore the facts.
  2. Deny the facts.
  3. Get very angry, in public, on the Internet.

Thursday, October 08, 2020

Is he still on the payroll as an advisor?

His advice is, "take steroids ... and don't get caught."

I mean, of course the silly Happ move didn't work. Happ got shelled and, in the next game, Tanaka got shelled. Now Montgomery starts a must-win Game Four.

I also agree that it was an embarrassing, self-conscious attempt to beat the Rays at their own game.

Everyone knows this, including ARod. 

No great insider insight here.

There never is with this guy.


I didn't know Aaron Judge was the de facto team captain.

The Subway commercials should have been the giveaway.

I think he's a great player when healthy. He strikes out too much. He talks too much for a player who hasn't really backed it up in the 2020 playoffs, or in the playoffs in general. The "when healthy" part can't be ignored, either.

The guys I would think of first for the 2020 Yankees would be Gardner and LeMahieu.

Wednesday, October 07, 2020

Surprise!

Straight talk with Aaron Boone:

"Yankees manager Aaron Boone said the early hook for Garcia wasn't a preplanned bait-and-switch tactic against the Rays. Rather, Boone said it was his intention to have a short leash for Garcia and use Happ afterward.

'Their roster is built to take the platoon advantage. Felt like I was going to go to J.A. pretty early and aggressively if they went with a lefty-heavy lineup, and that was the reason,' Boone said. 'It was a little lineup-based, but [Garcia] kind of labored a bit in that first inning. But that was the plan all along. We were going to go short with him all along, knowing we would have Deivi available [later on] in the series if need be.'"

It wasn't a preplanned tactic ... but it was also the plan all along.

It isn't worth the effort. 

The bottom line is that your strategy is always going to be suspect when it relies on J.A. Happ.

Saturday, October 03, 2020

We all get a mulligan in 2020.

 

"The upcoming revenge matchup with Tampa Bay in the ALDS will give the Yankees a chance to recapture the kind of buzz that has escaped this storied franchise.

The Bombers are in need of a sizzle vaccine.

Going into the pandemic postseason, evidence of their Big Fizzle is provided by looking at the Yankees Entertainment & Sports Network’s final viewership numbers for the abbreviated regular season. Compared to the 2019 season, the average total viewership was down an un-Yankee-like 4%.

YES averaged 261,000 total viewers over 54 games this season compared to the 271,000 total viewers over 131 games during the 2019 season."

What happened to the YES Network viewership?

I have a possible answer.

Ten thousand potential YES Network viewers died.

Of COVID-19.

The global pandemic you may have heard about.


I'm more interested in MLB than any other sport, and it's difficult for me to get excited about this season, including the 16-team playoffs.

The NBA I keep an eye on, but it's October. It doesn't feel right. 

From a wider perspective, 2020 is tough. For everyone. It's really hard to care about baseball or TV.

I think baseball is in trouble in the long-term. I don't know if it can come back from this dip. 

 Modern-day baseball is a boring War of Attrition. 

Instead of using an array of offensive talents to defeat the opponent's pitcher, the strategy is to get the pitch count up and get him out of the game. Then hit home runs against the bullpen.

A 4% dip in ratings sounds like a victory to me. It's all relative. 

I surely wouldn't expect Rays/Yankees to move to grab the attention of a lot of people. Read the headlines.