Tuesday, January 14, 2020

it isn't funny, for one thing ...

Also, it brings to mind an aphorism about glass houses.

Thursday, January 09, 2020

Saturday, January 04, 2020

Mike Lupica also thinks there is no way the Yankees will miss the playoffs in 2020.

"So it really is silly to look at this as a 9-year deal. Think five or six. The Yankees got their guy, you bet. Now we see if he gets them back to the Canyon of Heroes. You don’t measure this deal in wins or Cy Young Awards. You measure it in lower Manhattan."

It's almost as if this wacko journalist is saying the Yankees should be insulted by the notion that they have to win in the regular season.

Mike Lupica doesn't think the Yankees will make the playoffs in 2020.

2020 is here.

As we prepare for our annual Mike Lupica preseason prediction that the Mets will win 100 games and take back the town from the Yankees ... a battle the Yankees don't even know they're in ... let's get an early January warmup:

"Nothing has changed since the Gerrit Cole signing, by the way.

Still getting the idea that the Yankees are supposed to feel insulted if they are asked to actually play the regular season."

Meaning what?

That you don't think the Yankees will make the playoffs?

Or that most baseball fans and observers think the Yankees will make the playoffs?


If you don't think the Yankees will make the playoffs, go ahead and say it. Then you get some sort of credit by those keeping score if you were correct with your bold prediction.

But you're not even talking about that.

You're talking about the reaction from the sports media.

Who you are chastising for making the obvious observation that the Yankees are expected to make the playoffs in 2020.


Last year, without Gerrit Cole, the Yankees won 103 games.

The Yankees play in a depleted AL East.

I therefore agree with the majority of people who think the Yankees are shoo-ins for he playoffs in 2020.

Normal disclaimers about injuries apply, but, you know what? The Yankees are very deep. I have no problem fast-forwarding he discussion to the playoffs.


"Man, Mets fans ought to be hoping that Josh Donaldson signs with anybody except the Nationals or the Twins."

Maybe it's an inside joke.

The Nationals, of course, are in the Mets' division.

The Twins?

Maybe I'm missing something obvious.

Why are we talking about Josh Donaldson?

Why are we talking about the Twins?

Why are we talking about the Mets recoiling in horror if Donaldson signs with the Twins in contrast to every other team?

Friday, December 20, 2019

Brian Cashman is not going to get fired.

A regular Nostradamus over here.

Lupica actually publishes an article where he picks nine teams to win the World Series:

"Not giving odds here. This isn’t the sports book at Caesars Palace. No particular order for the rest of the field. But if the Yankees don’t win the World Series, who might?"


No.

It isn't the sports book at Caesars Palace.

The sports book at Caesars Palace has more integrity.


It's not even nine teams. It's nine teams "if the Yankees don't win." That's ten teams total. Out of 30.

I mean, unless you're trying to miss on purpose, one of these teams will almost certainly win the World Series.


"I just don’t believe in the Cubs, at least as presently constituted, and actually think the White Sox might be a more fun team to watch in 2020. I’ve seen too many postseason failures from the Twins against the Yankees to believe in them. The Red Sox are a lot of things right now. A serious contender doesn’t appear to be one of them."

Good to know.

At least it's an actual opinion, written down for posterity, without a hedge.

Mike Lupica does not think the Cubs or Red Sox are going to be good in 2020.


But why not just include the Cubs and White Sox and a few more teams while you're at it?

Bump it up to 12 or 13.

Heck, you can pick these teams randomly and you'd have a good shot at picking the winner.

Thursday, December 12, 2019

ARod's contract was worth it. Maybe not for the Rangers.

The Yankees' net worth is now estimated at $4.6 billion. It rose so quickly, I was off by 50%. In my mind, it was $3 billion.


Today is the anniversary of ARod's mind-blowing Rangers' contract.

It's in the news.


According to this analysis ...

"The Yankees paid him $307.8 million for 12 seasons, 351 home runs, 2 MVPs, and one World Series trophy. In the end, the Yankees did get a lot of good production from Rodriguez, but it was also clear that they also got a lot of the bad as his production quickly fell off a cliff at the end."

The first comment I heard the morning after the Cole signing was, "Cole needs to win at least two rings with the Yankees."

Probably won't happen.

Rings, WAR, salary divided by WAR ... all of this analysis misses the main point.



As I've mentioned many times before, ARod's presence immediately pushed the Yankee attendance from 3 million to 4 million, and it stayed there.

It would not be inaccurate to describe the new Stadium as the House that ARod Built.


I'm relying on one guy (Mike Ozanian) to provide the data, and I didn't do all the work.

I'd like to see the rise in the Yankees' net worth year after year since that day in 2004 when they traded away Alfonso Soriano.

This is especially impressive in the context that the Jeter-led four-ring Yankees couldn't do the trick. It was the inexplicably entertaining Villain/Hero.


The Yankees are not a sports team, they are a brand.

The Yankees are not in the baseball business, they are in the entertainment business.

Of course the Yankee owners want a winning team ... because that means more people come to the stadium and walk around with $500 in their pocket.


Do you know how I know ARod's contract was worth it? Because people are still talking about it. In terms of tactical efficiency, I suppose it could be considered a bust.

But how many units did Hiroki Kuroda move?

How many people drove to the South Bronx to buy a Jon Lieber jersey?

Did anyone notice when Bob Abreu sunbathed topless in Central Park? (I have no evidence of this, but try to get the image out of your head.)


Is the Cole signing worth it?

Of course it isn't ... if you really think this is about baseball productivity and payroll efficiency

Come see me in nine years and I'm inclined to believe the Yankee Machine will be rolling along, stronger than ever.








Monday, December 09, 2019

Miller finally made the HOF.

Bittersweet because it's posthumous, but I still never thought I'd see the day.

Monday, December 02, 2019

There is no such thing as story of the decade.

As you read this, please don't forget that it's written by a guy who thinks Josh Hamilton's home run streak at Yankee Stadium ... during the HR Derby ... is one of the greatest moments in Yankee Stadium history:

"This all plays out a little over a month from when last season, and the last decade, ended with a tremendous World Series, won by the Washington Nationals in seven games after they trailed the Astros three games to two, and with the series returning to Minute Maid Park."

Which is a reminder that this is written by a guy who explained how important home field advantage is during the playoffs.


"So before we do turn the page, and before baseball does start making Hot Stove headlines, it is worth noting again that nobody had a better October in the past decade, not even the Cubs, than the Nationals did, starting with their National League Wild Card Game win against the Brewers."

No, I don't know what that could possible mean.

Every team that won the World Series had the Best October.

It's binary. You win or you do not win.


"Think of them as the Cubs without more than a century of waiting."

Then they're not the Cubs.

Follow?

The narrative is the same as the Cubs ... without the central theme that gave the Cubs a compelling narrative.


"Fact is, nobody ever had a better October in any decade."

Nobody ever had a better October in any decade than the Washington Nationals in 2019.

That's a "fact" according to the deranged author.


Then, there is a bunch of nonsensical interpretations of baseball games, by which the 2019 Nationals became the best October baseball team in the history of baseball.


Sunday, November 24, 2019

"People always say ..."

"If the Yankees still didn’t have Jacoby (We Hardly Knew Ye) Ellsbury on the books and hadn’t made the trade for Giancarlo Stanton, how much money would they be willing to throw at Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg?"

Gee, I don't know.

Maybe $800 thousand?

No.

$1 billion?

No.

$250 billion.

If not for the contracts of Ellsbury and Stanton, the Yankees would offer $250 billion to Gerrit Cole. One-year contract worth $250 billion.


We go through this every year, over and over, and some people never learn.

Most people apply their personal economic rules to an infinite Corporation currently worth $3 billion.

The Yankees don't want to overpay for Cole or Strasburg.

Cashman has some vague upper limit based on the salary tax, but that's mostly PR.

Lupica's stupid observation is particularly moot since the Yankees only owe Ellsbury between $0 and $26 million.

Cole is going to get, say, 7 years, $225 million, escalator clauses, player opt outs, the whole shebang. If the Yankees really want him, the Yankees will not be outbid.

So, in the year 2027, Cole's salary will be $40 million ... and Cole will probably be washed up by that time.

Any team that signs this man to a long-term contract knows the risks involved. Or any long-term baseball contract, for that matter. Or any long-term anything, for that matter.

But the thing that's stopping the Yankees from pulling the trigger is a long-forgotten $5 million buyout of Jacoby Ellsbury?

No way.


"The books" Lupica is referring to aren't even the correct books.

The income statement is blah blah blah. The Yankees are far more concerned with the balance sheet.

Don't measure a 2-year $26 million contract vs. the $360 million the Yankees will spend on player salaries during those two years (even though $26 million doesn't sound like a heckuva lot when framed in those terms).

Instead, measure a 2-year, $26 million contract vs. $3 billion in assets.


"Don Mattingly belongs in the Hall of Fame.

So does Thurman Munson.

People always say that Mattingly’s level of excellence didn’t last long enough.

Neither did Sandy Koufax’s."

So take Koufax out.

Oh, it's too late to do that.


"Not saying that you compare Mattingly’s excellence with Koufax’s.
Nobody would ever say that."

Nobody would ever say the thing I just said.


"But starting in 1984 and going through the 1989 season (and before his back gave out), Don Mattingly knocked in 684 runs.

His batting averages were these: .343, .324, .352, .327, .311, 303.

In his prime, his fellow players, in a New York Times poll, once voted him the best player in the game.

There are a lot of guys in the Hall of Fame who were never considered the best in the game for one day of their careers."

This is true.

Also, there are a lot of guys not in the Hall of Fame who would have won a players' poll as best player in the game.

That's the end of Lupica's argument. Since Sandy Koufax had a short career with a relatively short period of supremacy, then Mattingly and Munson belong in the HOF.

Not a tough sell to a New York audience.

You forgot Ron Guidry and Don Gullett; Orel Hershiser and Kevin Brown; Fernando Valenzuela and Bob Welch.

Not to mention Lou Whitaker, Jeff Kent, Larry Walker, Bobby Grich, Fred Lynn, and Jorge Posada.

I wouldn't use Koufax as a HOF shoo-in. He captured the imagination of lots of voters during a super-dominant stretch during a high-mound pitchers' era. Koufax is a low bar for HOFers.

Mattingly probably passes that low bar, I suppose, and so does Dale Murphy ... and Al Oliver ... and Dwight Evans ... and ...

Thursday, November 21, 2019

The question is ...

Mark Teixeira with some insightful insider commentary:


 "Playing in New York is not for everybody And maybe Gerrit Cole will thrive in New York. But if you told me, as the top free agent on the market, and I'm a West Coast guy, and the Dodgers and Angels are sitting there drooling over me. I'm probably going to look there before I look at the Yankees. I think money being equal, he's not going to the Yankees. If the Yankees completely blow everyone out of the water, then he'll end up in pinstripes."

So Cole will not sign with the Yankees, unless he does.

Sunday, November 17, 2019

Gerrit Cole has never won a World Series.

Neither has Clayton Kershaw.

Neither have a lot of big free agent players.

Difference is, for some reason, Cole is the Face of Successful Championship Megadeals.



Then, in order to support his current argument about the value of megadeals, Mike Lupica wrote the following, which seems to reverse his stance for the past fifteen years:

"Rodriguez had been with the Yankees since 2004, opted out of his old Rangers contract during the 2007 World Series, re-upped with the Yankees for the ’08 season. The Yankees won it all in 2009. They couldn’t have done it without him..."


Then Lupica just embarrasses himself, continuing his weird fascination with David Price"

"In the third season after David Price signed his contract with the Red Sox, they won another World Series. And absolutely, hands-down, 100 percent don’t win it without him."

The Red Sox don't win the World Series without David Price? How do you figure?

"Whether or not he’s always pitched like an ace since joining the Red Sox, when they needed him to pitch like a total star in the ALCS against the Astros, starting and relieving, he did that."

That's terrific.

He gave up 4 runs in 10 2/3 innings during the ALCS against the Astros.

You know how the Red Sox could have conceivably won without Price?

If they pitched a guy who gave up 3 runs in 10 2/3 innings.


Then the same observation about Scherzer. He signed a big contract, he pitched pretty well at times in the playoffs, and his team won the World Series.




I can list dozens of nobodies who pitched better than Price and Scherzer in small sample size crunch time.

  • Lance McCullers Jr.
  • Brad Penny
  • David Weathers

Yeah, man. The Red Sox didn't need to pay David Price all that money to win the World Series. They just needed David Weathers and his 0.82 postseason ERA.


So what does this prove?

It doesn't prove anything.

I can find a list of players who fit a criteria and a list of accomplishments and there will always be a cross-section of the two lists.


Most of the time, megadeals don't pay off, if the sole goal is to win the World Series.

Not because the players are bad or because the deals are ill-advised. It's just because winning the World Series is difficult, only one team wins it per year, and one player can't win it all by themselves.


Friday, November 15, 2019

2019 NL MVP


BBWAA

NamePoints
Cody Bellinger362
Christian Yelich317
Anthony Rendon242
Ketel Marte198
Ronald Acuna Jr.155
Nolan Arenado120
Pete Alonso102
Freddie Freeman90
Juan Soto45
Jacob deGrom44
Josh Donaldson27
Trevor Story26
Jack Flaherty9
J.T. Realmuto8
Yasmani Grandal4
Max Muncy4
Stephen Strasburg4
Eugenio Suarez4
Hyun-Jin Ryu3
Paul Godschmidt2
Kolten Wong2
Kevin Pillar1
Max Scherzer1



Felz Poll
NamePoints
Cody Bellinger25
Christian Yelich24
Anthony Rendon11
Ronald Acuna Jr.5
Freddie Freeman3
Pete Alonso2

2019 AL MVP


BBWAA

NamePoints
Mike Trout355
Alex Bregman335
Marcus Semien228
DJ Lemahieu178
Xander Bogaerts147
Matt Chapman89
George Springer69
Mookie Betts67
Nelson Cruz62
Gerrit Cole61
Justin Verlander56
Rafael Devers40
Jorge Polanco20
Austin Meadows15
Francisco Lindor13
Carlos Santana9
Gleyber Torres8
Eddie Rosario6
Jose Abreu5
Max Kepler2
J.D. Martinez1
Yoan Mondaca1
Charlie Morton1
Matt Olson1
Jorge Soler1


Felz Poll
NamePoints
Mike Trout27
Alex Bregman22
Nelson Cruz5
DJ Lemahieu5
Mookie Betts3
Rafael Devers3
Xander Bogaerts2
Marcus Semien2
Jorge Polanco1

MVP Votes

Random observations:
  1. Lemahieu made a nice showing with fourth place.
  2. Neither Machado nor Harper received one vote.

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

2019 NL Cy Young Award

BBWAA
NamePoints
Jacob deGrom207
Hyun-Jin Ryu88
Max Scherzer72
Jack Flaherty69
Stephen Strasburg53
Mike Soroka9
Sonny Gray       4
Clayton Kershaw3
Walker Buehler2
Kirby Yates2
Patrick Corbin     1

Felz Poll
NamePoints
Jacob deGrom25
Hyun-Jin Ryu12
Stephen Strasburg11
Max Scherzer10
Mike Soroka6
Jack Flaherty3
Josh Hader2
Max Fried1


2019 AL Cy Young Award

BBWAA
NamePoints
Justin Verlander171
Gerrit Cole159
Charlie Morton75
Shane Bieber64
Lance Lynn18
Lucas Giolito8
Eduardo Rodriguez       8
Mike Minor7

Felz Poll
NamePoints
Justin Verlander28
Gerrit Cole21
Shane/Justin Bieber8
Mike Minor4
Charlie Morton4
Domingo German3
Zach Greinke2
Aroldis Chapman1
Lance Lynn1

This goes beyond gamesmanship

... and if it is widespread, then it's widespread cheating.

Saturday, November 02, 2019

I think Beltran will probably do a good job. Maybe. Who knows?

Carlos Beltran is a future HOFer who is one of the best postseason performers in the history of baseball.

In the 2006 NLCS, he hit .296 with 3 HRs and a 1.054 OPS.

In the last out of the series, Adam Wainwright threw a Big Boy Major League curveball and Beltran struck out.

That's the whole idea of competition. There's a highly-skilled person on the other side who is paid a lot of money to achieve a result contrary to your goals. Nobody ever batted 1.000 in major league baseball.

Mets fans suffering from PTSD have more than "occasional grumbles" about this at-bat from 13 years ago:

"Beltran's tenure with the Mets between 2005 and 2011 wasn't all smooth sailing. There are still occasional grumbles about his looking strikeout to end the 2006 National League Championship Series. He later clashed with the team over the timing of his knee surgery in 2010, and he was thrown under the bus by owner Fred Wilpon in 2011. He was eventually traded to the San Francisco Giants during the latter season."