"Cliff Lee may turn out to be the most rare of free-agent starting pitchers, which means that he may be worth as much at the end of his contract as he is at the beginning of it."
All free agents, not just pitchers.
Freakin' Carl Crawford just signed a contract worth $20 million per year. He wasn't worth that much money when he was 27 years old. He's going to be 37 years old when this contract expires.
"So Lee might still be worth $25 million a year to the Yankees when he is 37 – the age Derek Jeter turns next year – or 38 or 39. So Lee might turn out to be the exception rather than the rule with insane contracts, money and length, for starters that often turn out to be a complete waste at the back end."
Well, you'll have to put some metrics around that. I think the Yankees would be happy with 110 wins overall, a .600 playoff winning percentage, and two Championships.
Is that fair?
When Lee is 38 or 39, assuming Lee is still alive and healthy and still playing for the Yankees, by then he'd probably a .500 pitcher. For argument's sake, let's say 12-12 and a #5 starter.
But how could I possibly know?
If Lupica expects 160 wins over 7 seasons, then that's not realistic.
For what it's worth, I think Lee is overrated. I also think the Yankees should offer him a seven-year deal and hope for the best. That's the Talent Pyramid.
"But here's the key thing: The Yankees have no idea if Lee will hold up or not. Don't know, don't care. They just care about next season."
No, you are wrong.
The Yankees care very much about Lee's longevity and the Yankees care very much about the future of their team beyond next season.
"The Yankees don't care how much they have to spend on Lee because the Red Sox now have Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford locked up."
No, you are wrong.
Mike Lupica is stating that the Yankees are going hard after Cliff Lee --
The 7-year, $185 million offer that everyone knew was coming for the past two years -- because the Red Sox singed Gonzalez and Crawford.
"When the Yankees absolutely have to have somebody, can't live without him, they spend whatever they need to."
I guess so.
They sign a lot of free agents. They also don't sign a lot of free agents.
I'm sure Lupica thought the Yankees needed Joe Mauer for sure.
"They were supposed to be done a couple of years ago after spending $240 million on CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, and then they found another $180 million on a shelf in a closet for Mark Teixeira."
The Yankees were supposed to be done spending on free agents.
"But, man oh man, the Yankees sure did have to hold the line on Jeter. Various Yankee executives and accountants nearly tore rotator cuffs patting themselves on the back for saving and all Steinbrenner heirs everywhere some money on the captain of the team."
Snarky.
"We hear that the Yankees are terrified, that's what they are, about having too much money tied up with aging ballplayers. Except now they are prepared to commit a ton of money to Cliff Lee when he is ... an aging ballplayer!"
"We hear."
Who hears this?
Does Lupica hear this?
I don't hear this.
"When they got Teixeira and Burnett and Sabathia, it was supposed to be the beginning of another Yankee dynasty, even if it hasn't worked out that way."
This has to be one of the weirdest analyses, even by Lupica standards.
How can Lupica know in December 2010 if this will be the start of another Yankee dynasty?
Lupica has determined the status of a potential dynasty after just two seasons.
Think about that.
These players won a Championship their first year in pinstripes. In their second season, they made it to the ALCS.
So if they continue a 50% Championship rate for the remainder of their contracts, will that be a dynasty?
"One of these days the owners of the Yankees should go back and look at where the Yankee payroll was in comparison to the rest of the sport when the team was winning four World Series in five years."
What they will find is that their good players were young and inexperienced and not yet eligible for free agency.
Then, these players became eligible for free agency, and the Yankees paid them a lot of money.
So the payroll went way up while the talent didn't magically increase proportionally.
Because that's how free agency works.
Almost every young all star -- Mattingly, Jeter, Soriano, Rivera -- is a bargain until the exact moment they become a free agent (or sign a free-agent-equivalent contract extension).
They sign long-term contracts when they are young. These contracts are burdensome when they're old.
This is how it works.
The alternative is to be a bad team with AAA players.
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