Approximately one year ago, Collins was dishing some spiel about Johan Santana pitching 200 innings and every starting pitcher on the Mets pitching 200 innings.
With the understanding that nothing is impossible, Collins once again crosses the fine line between optimism and delusion. It's difficult to tell if Madden is speaking for himself or relaying Collins's over-the-top prognoses, but this article is basically predicting everyone on the Mets to be an MVP candidate:
"But while Collins’ attempts to keep his head while all of those above him in the Mets command are seemingly losing theirs by suggesting anything less than 90 wins from this Mets team this season will be viewed as a major disappointment, the manager at least has an idea of what he’s going to need to get from each of his players to achieve that goal. Injuries are not part of the equation, and while Collins’ expectations may have seemed, on the surface, a bit of a stretch in some cases, it’s not as if these players haven’t demonstrated an ability to attain them."
A bit of a stretch ...
"The time is now for Travis d’Arnaud, who must assert himself as the No. 1 receiver by staying healthy and catching a minimum of 125-130 games and hitting at least 15 homers, which he did twice in the minors."
In the minors?
I hit more than 15 HRs in a season lots of times. In fact, while playing Atari RealSports Baseball, I have hit 15 HRs in one game. Does that qualify as a demonstrated ability to attain this goal?
1) 15 HRs is not a lot.
2) HRs are not the only stat in baseball. He can be an effective offensive player if he has a lot of singles, doubles, and walks.
3) He hit one HR last season in 99 at-bats. Fifteen doesn't just sound optimistic, it sounds completely irrelevant. If his batting average is floundering below .240 at the all star break, Collins and Madden are just going to talk about how well he handles the pitching staff.
"No matter whom it winds up being — Duda or Davis — Collins agreed he needs to get a minimum of 20 homers and 80 RBI out of this power position."
20/80 combined from your first basemen? It's an improvement from last year. Still pretty bad.
"No matter where Chris Young plays in the outfield, Collins is looking for him to match or surpass his career bests of 32 homers and 91 RBI. No one expects Curtis Granderson to approach his 40-plus homer production of 2011-12 now that he’s playing at Citi Field, but anything less than 25 bombs and 90-plus RBI, especially if he also has 170-plus strikeouts, will be a huge negative for the Mets. In the case of Eric Young Jr., if he wants to keep his place in the outfield, he needs get on base more — think a .340-.350 on base percentage, as opposed to his career .325 number by using his speed to get more bunt hits. If he does that, Collins sees him scoring 125 runs and stealing 50-60 bases out of the leadoff spot. That, especially, is a major ingredient for a 90-win season."
Wow.
If Eric Young Jr. steals 60 bases and scores 125 runs, I'll give him the NL MVP and the Mets could win 100 games. Since we're being delusional, why not go all the way?
He is a 28-year-old with 173 career runs, but he's going to score 125 this year.
The Mets got Mike Trout on the cheap. Who knew?
"But considering the Mets’ uncertain bullpen, it is almost imperative for Collins to get 175-plus innings out of four of his starters. When it came to closer Bobby Parnell and his offseason neck surgery, Collins held up his crossed fingers and said: 'I’m going to assume Bobby will be fine, because I have to, and assuming that he is, I’m looking at 40-50 saves there, with 65-70 appearances from my set-up guys.' "
Fifty saves for Bobby Parnell?
In one season?
In the 2014 season, Bobby Parnell is going to save 50 games?
Bobby Parnell, out of nowhere, is going to lead the majors in saves and shatter the Mets' single-season record for saves?
The problem is, with Eric Young Jr. scoring 125 runs and everybody driving in 90+, you'll win all your games by too many runs. Parnell won't get enough save opportunities.
You know what? I'll go the other way. I'll predict less than 25 saves and losing the closer job due to injury or poor performance. How's that for an optimistic prediction?
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