Maybe all of us suffer from confirmation bias.

"Technically, the Yankees didn't trade Robinson Cano for Jacoby Ellsbury after the 2013 season. But due to the circumstances of how Cano — a future Hall of Fame second baseman — was allowed to walk away in free agency and was effectively replaced by Ellsbury, their careers will forever be linked in the Bronx."

Funny, this linkage never really dawned on me.


"That's turning into more and more of an uncomfortable comparison for the Yankees.

While Cano's contract (10 years, $240 million) could become an albatross in a few years, a case can be made that Ellsbury's deal (seven years, $153 million) is already trending in that direction. This season represents just the third year of the respective deals, but the early returns — including team success in 2016 — are overwhelming in the favor of Cano."

I don't think it's overwhelming.

Yankees have won one more game over the time period and Cano's cumulative WAR is 11.9 instead of 5.7.


"Cano: 344 games, .301/.357/.467, .824 OPS, 135 OPS+, 11.9 WAR
Ellsbury: 287 games, .264/.323/.386, .709 OPS, 99 OPS+, 5.7 WAR

It's not even a contest. Even with Cano's down year due to an abdominal injury in 2015, he's been the far more productive player since the start of 2014."

So there you go.

I look at the same data and say it's less than three wins per year. Not overwhelming, even if WAR isn't the best indicator, and neither is team wins (Yankees have one more than Seattle during the same time period).


I simply don't understand the fixation on Ellsbury.

Tanaka has a cumulative WAR of 8.0 over that time period. I say the Yankees signed Tanaka instead of Cano ... and only lost 1.5 games per year.

Have Ellsbury earned their money relative to Cano? No. But I don't think it's overwhelming, especially when the total contract is taken into account.

But obviously, more importantly for the Yankees was avoiding that $100 million post-35 albatrosses that are hanging around so many of the players on their current roster. So maybe it's too early to tell who gets the last laugh.

As for the 2016 Yankees, once again, it's obvious to me that Ellsbury isn't their biggest payroll thief.