Keeping Score

"As one scout this week told me, 'They'll win 90-95 games easy if Diaz figures it out again. And they should have a championship bullpen.'

Hard to argue."

My first observation is that 90 wins is a good season. Third place in your division.

95 wins is a playoff spot.

In the 2020 NL East, 95 wins seems like a stretch.



This kind of prediction also assumes that nothing else changes between 2019 and 2020. Like, we start with a baseline of 86 wins. Then Diaz is better, Betances helps, and that's 90 - 95 wins.

It may work out exactly like that.

No one knows.

But since we keep score on everything, I will predict it doesn't work out that way.


"Because if Diaz again becomes a reliable closer, the Mets should be monsters in the late innings, with newcomer Dellin Betances likely sliding in as the primary set-up man and Seth Lugo then available as an Andrew Miller-like wild card, helping to lock down games with multiple-inning outings wherever needed."

You just changed the parameters of the discussion.

It's not just Diaz who's going to single-handedly get you an extra 4-to-9 wins by being the most dominant relief pitcher in baseball history.

He's going to triple-handedly join an already-dominant bullpen.

Yeah, I'll buy that. If everyone on the Mets is good, then they will surely win a lot of games.



"'Potentially, and I say potentially with great caution,' said another scout, 'they've got a better pen than just about everyone -- even the Yankees. But obviously there's a lot of uncertainty, starting with Diaz.'"

An unnamed scout said it, so I guess it doesn't mean much.