"People always say ..."

"If the Yankees still didn’t have Jacoby (We Hardly Knew Ye) Ellsbury on the books and hadn’t made the trade for Giancarlo Stanton, how much money would they be willing to throw at Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg?"

Gee, I don't know.

Maybe $800 thousand?

No.

$1 billion?

No.

$250 billion.

If not for the contracts of Ellsbury and Stanton, the Yankees would offer $250 billion to Gerrit Cole. One-year contract worth $250 billion.

We go through this every year, over and over, and some people never learn.

Most people apply their personal economic rules to an infinite Corporation currently worth $3 billion.

The Yankees don't want to overpay for Cole or Strasburg.

Cashman has some vague upper limit based on the salary tax, but that's mostly PR.

Lupica's stupid observation is particularly moot since the Yankees only owe Ellsbury between $0 and $26 million.

Cole is going to get, say, 7 years, $225 million, escalator clauses, player opt outs, the whole shebang. If the Yankees really want him, the Yankees will not be outbid.

So, in the year 2027, Cole's salary will be $40 million ... and Cole will probably be washed up by that time.

Any team that signs this man to a long-term contract knows the risks involved. Or any long-term baseball contract, for that matter. Or any long-term anything, for that matter.

But the thing that's stopping the Yankees from pulling the trigger is a long-forgotten $5 million buyout of Jacoby Ellsbury?

No way.


"The books" Lupica is referring to aren't even the correct books.

The income statement is blah blah blah. The Yankees are far more concerned with the balance sheet.

Don't measure a 2-year $26 million contract vs. the $360 million the Yankees will spend on player salaries during those two years (even though $26 million doesn't sound like a heckuva lot when framed in those terms).

Instead, measure a 2-year, $26 million contract vs. $3 billion in assets.

"Don Mattingly belongs in the Hall of Fame.

So does Thurman Munson.

People always say that Mattingly’s level of excellence didn’t last long enough.

Neither did Sandy Koufax’s."

So take Koufax out.

Oh, it's too late to do that.

"Not saying that you compare Mattingly’s excellence with Koufax’s.

Nobody would ever say that."

Nobody would ever say the thing I just said.

"But starting in 1984 and going through the 1989 season (and before his back gave out), Don Mattingly knocked in 684 runs.

His batting averages were these: .343, .324, .352, .327, .311, 303.

In his prime, his fellow players, in a New York Times poll, once voted him the best player in the game.

There are a lot of guys in the Hall of Fame who were never considered the best in the game for one day of their careers."

This is true.

Also, there are a lot of guys not in the Hall of Fame who would have won a players' poll as best player in the game.

That's the end of Lupica's argument. Since Sandy Koufax had a short career with a relatively short period of supremacy, then Mattingly and Munson belong in the HOF.

Not a tough sell to a New York audience.

You forgot Ron Guidry and Don Gullett; Orel Hershiser and Kevin Brown; Fernando Valenzuela and Bob Welch.

Not to mention Lou Whitaker, Jeff Kent, Larry Walker, Bobby Grich, Fred Lynn, and Jorge Posada.

I wouldn't use Koufax as a HOF shoo-in. He captured the imagination of lots of voters during a super-dominant stretch during a high-mound pitchers' era. Koufax is a low bar for HOFers.

Mattingly probably passes that low bar, I suppose, and so does Dale Murphy ... and Al Oliver ... and Dwight Evans ... and ...

The question is ...

Mark Teixeira with some insightful insider commentary:


 "Playing in New York is not for everybody And maybe Gerrit Cole will thrive in New York. But if you told me, as the top free agent on the market, and I'm a West Coast guy, and the Dodgers and Angels are sitting there drooling over me. I'm probably going to look there before I look at the Yankees. I think money being equal, he's not going to the Yankees. If the Yankees completely blow everyone out of the water, then he'll end up in pinstripes."

So Cole will not sign with the Yankees, unless he does.

Gerrit Cole has never won a World Series.

Neither has Clayton Kershaw.

Neither have a lot of big free agent players.

Difference is, for some reason, Cole is the Face of Successful Championship Megadeals.



Then, in order to support his current argument about the value of megadeals, Mike Lupica wrote the following, which seems to reverse his stance for the past fifteen years:

"Rodriguez had been with the Yankees since 2004, opted out of his old Rangers contract during the 2007 World Series, re-upped with the Yankees for the ’08 season. The Yankees won it all in 2009. They couldn’t have done it without him..."


Then Lupica just embarrasses himself, continuing his weird fascination with David Price"

"In the third season after David Price signed his contract with the Red Sox, they won another World Series. And absolutely, hands-down, 100 percent don’t win it without him."

The Red Sox don't win the World Series without David Price? How do you figure?

"Whether or not he’s always pitched like an ace since joining the Red Sox, when they needed him to pitch like a total star in the ALCS against the Astros, starting and relieving, he did that."

That's terrific.

He gave up 4 runs in 10 2/3 innings during the ALCS against the Astros.

You know how the Red Sox could have conceivably won without Price?

If they pitched a guy who gave up 3 runs in 10 2/3 innings.


Then the same observation about Scherzer. He signed a big contract, he pitched pretty well at times in the playoffs, and his team won the World Series.




I can list dozens of nobodies who pitched better than Price and Scherzer in small sample size crunch time.

• Lance McCullers Jr.
• Brad Penny
• David Weathers

Yeah, man. The Red Sox didn't need to pay David Price all that money to win the World Series. They just needed David Weathers and his 0.82 postseason ERA.


So what does this prove?

It doesn't prove anything.

I can find a list of players who fit a criteria and a list of accomplishments and there will always be a cross-section of the two lists.


Most of the time, megadeals don't pay off, if the sole goal is to win the World Series.

Not because the players are bad or because the deals are ill-advised. It's just because winning the World Series is difficult, only one team wins it per year, and one player can't win it all by themselves.

2019 NL MVP

BBWAA

Name	Points
Cody Bellinger	362
Christian Yelich	317
Anthony Rendon	242
Ketel Marte	198
Ronald Acuna Jr.	155
Nolan Arenado	120
Pete Alonso	102
Freddie Freeman	90
Juan Soto	45
Jacob deGrom	44
Josh Donaldson	27
Trevor Story	26
Jack Flaherty	9
J.T. Realmuto	8
Yasmani Grandal	4
Max Muncy	4
Stephen Strasburg	4
Eugenio Suarez	4
Hyun-Jin Ryu	3
Paul Godschmidt	2
Kolten Wong	2
Kevin Pillar	1
Max Scherzer	1

Felz Poll

Name	Points
Cody Bellinger	25
Christian Yelich	24
Anthony Rendon	11
Ronald Acuna Jr.	5
Freddie Freeman	3
Pete Alonso	2

2019 AL MVP

BBWAA

Name	Points
Mike Trout	355
Alex Bregman	335
Marcus Semien	228
DJ Lemahieu	178
Xander Bogaerts	147
Matt Chapman	89
George Springer	69
Mookie Betts	67
Nelson Cruz	62
Gerrit Cole	61
Justin Verlander	56
Rafael Devers	40
Jorge Polanco	20
Austin Meadows	15
Francisco Lindor	13
Carlos Santana	9
Gleyber Torres	8
Eddie Rosario	6
Jose Abreu	5
Max Kepler	2
J.D. Martinez	1
Yoan Mondaca	1
Charlie Morton	1
Matt Olson	1
Jorge Soler	1

Felz Poll

Name	Points
Mike Trout	27
Alex Bregman	22
Nelson Cruz	5
DJ Lemahieu	5
Mookie Betts	3
Rafael Devers	3
Xander Bogaerts	2
Marcus Semien	2
Jorge Polanco	1

MVP Votes

Random observations:

1. Lemahieu made a nice showing with fourth place.
2. Neither Machado nor Harper received one vote.

2019 NL Cy Young Award

BBWAA

Name	Points
Jacob deGrom	207
Hyun-Jin Ryu	88
Max Scherzer	72
Jack Flaherty	69
Stephen Strasburg	53
Mike Soroka	9
Sonny Gray	4
Clayton Kershaw	3
Walker Buehler	2
Kirby Yates	2
Patrick Corbin	1

Felz Poll

Name	Points
Jacob deGrom	25
Hyun-Jin Ryu	12
Stephen Strasburg	11
Max Scherzer	10
Mike Soroka	6
Jack Flaherty	3
Josh Hader	2
Max Fried	1

2019 AL Cy Young Award

BBWAA

Name	Points
Justin Verlander	171
Gerrit Cole	159
Charlie Morton	75
Shane Bieber	64
Lance Lynn	18
Lucas Giolito	8
Eduardo Rodriguez	8
Mike Minor	7

Felz Poll

Name	Points
Justin Verlander	28
Gerrit Cole	21
Shane/Justin Bieber	8
Mike Minor	4
Charlie Morton	4
Domingo German	3
Zach Greinke	2
Aroldis Chapman	1
Lance Lynn	1

This goes beyond gamesmanship

... and if it is widespread, then it's widespread cheating.

I think Beltran will probably do a good job. Maybe. Who knows?

Carlos Beltran is a future HOFer who is one of the best postseason performers in the history of baseball.

In the 2006 NLCS, he hit .296 with 3 HRs and a 1.054 OPS.

In the last out of the series, Adam Wainwright threw a Big Boy Major League curveball and Beltran struck out.

That's the whole idea of competition. There's a highly-skilled person on the other side who is paid a lot of money to achieve a result contrary to your goals. Nobody ever batted 1.000 in major league baseball.

Mets fans suffering from PTSD have more than "occasional grumbles" about this at-bat from 13 years ago:

"Beltran's tenure with the Mets between 2005 and 2011 wasn't all smooth sailing. There are still occasional grumbles about his looking strikeout to end the 2006 National League Championship Series. He later clashed with the team over the timing of his knee surgery in 2010, and he was thrown under the bus by owner Fred Wilpon in 2011. He was eventually traded to the San Francisco Giants during the latter season."

Young Yankee players were very productive when Joe Girardi was the manager of the Yankees.

“I went through that with the Marlins and went through that with the Yankees,” Girardi added. “And I felt that I was able to get the most out of those (young) players. We were one game from reaching the World Series, so if there was a problem, it didn’t show up in the wins and losses.”

Cashman is smarter than you.

Everything Cashman is saying is right.

When the Astros or Nationals lose the World Series, will a reporter ask the GM why his team's season was a failure?

After three games in the Ultimate Test of the World Series, which starting pitcher has pitched like an ace?

I can state with no hesitation that Tanaka, Severino, and Paxton would have pitched better than any of them. I could be wrong about that, but this is not about right and wrong -- it's about confirmation bias.

Clayton Kershaw is the World Series MVP.

How adorable. A bunch of cigar-chomping scouts getting per diems to tell the Washington coaches that Jose Altuve is good:

"They don’t have a single person in their front office from Harvard, Yale or M.I.T.

They believe in pouring money into their scouting and player department.

They have 10 scouts and advisers who are 60 or older – including two who were alive the last time the nation’s capital had a team in the World Series.

They are the Washington Nationals. And they are putting on an old-school beatdown on the Houston Astros."

This is such a nonsense narrative by scared old people.

Like when someone says this song from 20 years ago takes me back to when life was simpler. Of course life was simpler 20 years ago. Not because the world was simple, but because you were a kid in your jammies watching cartoons on television.

Or when people say they were happy that they experienced their childhood before technology took over. If you were born in the past 1,500 years, you were born in a technologically advanced age. 

"The Nationals are proving that it’s still cool to believe in old-fashioned scouting, treat players like human beings instead of assets and value experience as a positive instead of a negative."

The Brewers "should have" beat the Nationals. I guess Hader was not treated as a ... human being?

The Nationals fell behind the powerhouse Dodgers 2-0 in a five-game series. 

Then the Dodgers took the lead into the 8th inning of Game Five.

If Bob Nightengale didn't pick the Nationals before Game Three of the NLDS, then this article is BS. Which it is.

"This is an organization that values old-school scouting and experience perhaps more than any other. They have a staff that includes six former scouting directors, four former managers, two former GMs and every member of their pro scouting staff played professional baseball.

The Nationals blanketed the landscape with scouts this postseason. They had two on every team in the playoffs, including five alone on the American League Championship Series.

The Astros, who don’t have a traditional pro scout, never bothered to send a soul to advance the Nationals during the playoffs."

Give me a break.

The Astros haven't been out-pitched, out-hit, and out-fielded. They've been out-scouted?

"And a subtle reminder this is still a people’s game, played by players, not assets, where clubhouse culture is critical to a team’s success."

It's such a lazy insult to the other 31 teams.

Boone played Hicks on a hunch and it paid off. 

Boone also played Encarnacion and, whether Boone viewed Encarnacion as a "human being" or an "asset," Encarnacion sure played like a liability.

It's such a lazy analysis in other ways, too.

 

One team always wins the World Series. That team always does something right. They're always the team of destiny. That's just 20-20 hindsight garbage.

Before the playoffs started, I heard a lot about the importance of getting the home field advantage. BS.

Before the WS started, I heard a lot about the momentum-killing week-long layoff. BS.

Before the WS started, I also heard a lot about the starting pitching showcase it was going to be. Until they started playing the games. Good Pitching Always Beats Good Hitting ... Except When it Doesn't.

You know what no one said before the WS started?

That the Nationals were going to win.

Another moot point.

Seemingly, the Yankees are clinging to Stanton and presumably losing a Tauchman roster spot because they're worried about losing Stanton for the World Series.

The World Series?

Riiiiiight.

Since the Astros scored zero runs in Game One ...

... I find this to be a moot point and an ineffective strategy.

Fate.

"The good news for the Washington Nationals is that they are in their first World Series."

Full stop.

Thanks for your most recent contribution to MLB.com's coverage of baseball. 


"They beat the champions of the National League West and now they’ve swept the champs of the NL Central."

Yeah.

We know.


"They were down two games to one to the Dodgers and came back to win Game 4. They were down 3-1 in the late innings of Game 5 at Dodger Stadium, and then Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto hit back-to-back home runs against Clayton Kershaw, and Howie Kendrick began turning into Mr. October for the Nats."


 Yeah.

We know.

Who do you think reads articles on MLB.com?

People who have no idea what is happening in MLB?


"Now here they are."

Waiting."

This article will surely help them whittle away their precious time.


"That’s the bad news for the Nationals, riding all this crazy momentum. They wait and keep waiting until the series between the Astros and Yankees is over. And while they wait, they hope that when they start playing again, at either Minute Maid Park or at Yankee Stadium, that they won’t have suffered from the Curse of the Tigers."

You've never heard of the Curse of the Tigers, have you?

Because it isn't a thing.

There is no bad news for the Nationals.

They are waiting to play in the World Series.

The following teams are waiting until April, and all of them would trade their No News for the Nationals' Bad News:

1. Dodgers
2. A's
3. Rays
4. Indians
5. Cardinals
6. Braves
7. Twins
8. Red Sox
9. Mets
10. Cubs
11. Brewers
12. Diamondbacks
13. Phillies
14. Reds
15. Rockies
16. Angels
17. Blue Jays
18. Giants
19. Rangers
20. Pirates
21. Mariners
22. White Sox
23. Padres
24. Marlins
25. Royals
26. Orioles 
27. Tigers

Almost a cheap home run.

A heck of a lot of talk about a warning track fly ball.


The Yankees were not intimidated by Cole.

The Yankees got a lot of runners on base and in scoring position.

But the Yankees could not cash in.

Cole gutted out seven shutout innings and won fair and square.


"Almost home runs" are also known as "fly outs."

"Foul home runs" are also known as strikes.

"Almost strikes" are also known as balls.

"Almost wins" are also known as losses.


Oh, and bunting wasn't going to save the Yankees.

Gardner wasn't going to bunt in five runs in the first inning.

The sportswriter hall of fame must have a very high bar.

"Supposed to" is my favorite phrase in the whole wide world.

It is a lazy, meaningless observation:

"The Astros, who went out and got Zack Greinke at the Trade Deadline, were supposed to have the edge with starting pitching over the Yankees, who didn’t do anything about pitching at the Deadline. Then Masahiro Tanaka was brilliant in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series. Greinke got lit up by the Yankees the way the Rays lit him up in Game 3 of the Astros-Rays Division Series."

In all fairness, 3 runs in 6 innings is not being "lit up."


"Then the Yankees gave the ball to James Paxton, who’d been their best starter the second half of the season, in Game 2"

Then what happened?

 
"Only Aaron Boone pulled Paxton in the third inning. Paxton had only given up one run to that point, but there were two runners on and Alex Bregman was coming to the plate. Paxton was gone."

Wow!

Since I watched the game, I already knew this.

But please continue ... the tension is building!


"By the time Game 2 was over, Boone would have done what the Yankees have done since the Deadline: Made a bet that the best bullpen on the planet could carry the Yankees to what would have been their biggest victory of the season so far, and a 2-0 series lead."

The Yankees relied on their bullpen before the trade deadline, too.

You have not yet told me anything that I didn't know by looking at the box score.


"And his relievers nearly made that bet pay off. Boone used eight of them from the third to the 11th at Minute Maid Park. They only gave the Astros two runs from the third until the bottom of the 11th. By then, Boone was out of relievers and pitching J.A. Happ, who’d been one of his starters."

I knew it! I thought the whole time that J.A. Happ was one of the Yankee starting pitchers. I was right!

Sabathia, too! 'Member when he came in to pitch? He had (?) also been one of Boone's starters ... and he still is one of Boone's starters.

You know what else is weird? Boone wasn't actually out of relievers. Even though you said "Boone was out of relievers."

He just chose two of his starters instead of his relievers. It's true!

Granted, the remaining relievers are not the "high leverage" relievers. Their names are Luis Cessa and Tyler Lyons.

They are relief pitchers on the Yankees playoff roster, yes they are.



"Carlos Correa took Happ out of Minute Maid, and the Astros had won, 3-2, and the ALCS was even at 1-1 going back to New York."

No. Way.

Is that really what happened?

Is he the guy who was shushing the crowed while he rounded the bases? Or is he the guy who was holding his hand up to his ear while he rounded the bases?

Lupica is always first with the breaking news.


"So far in this series each team has gotten a big October game from its ace, Tanaka and then Verlander. But the Astros, who beat the Yankees because of their starters two years ago, have two aces this season. The Yankees? They decided they had enough starting pitching in July, because of their bullpen. Now they get the chance to prove it in October. They got the bullpen game they wanted Sunday night. They just did everything except win it."

You know what, Lupica?

Go screw yourself.

"The Yankees should have gotten a starting pitcher" late night WFAN moron caller garbage.


Who was the pitcher the Yankees were going to get?

Stroman? Meh.

Scherzer? Ridiculous.

Syndergaard? Even more Meh and even more ridiculous.

Say Anibal Sanchez with 20-20 hindsight and I'll slap you.


We all know aces are rare and therefore valuable.

What would it have cost the Yankees? Torres and Frazier, at a minimum.

For a guy who can take on Verlander pitch by pitch?

Even if that pitchers exists ... Buehler? Strasburg? ... obviously not available, but the Yankees would maybe have to throw in Sanchez, Urshela, Kahnle, Montgomery, and Andujar.


Remember when the Yankees picked up Encarnacion?

They didn't "need" more home run power, right?

The opportunity presented itself because the price was right.

The Yankees didn't "decide" they had enough starting pitching ... the market didn't allow them to reasonably acquire more starting pitching.

If the Rays were willing to trade Blake Snell for Greg Bird, Cashman would have been all over it.

The "bullpen" strategy worked in Game Two. The problem is the offense got two runs when they needed three.

The most misunderstood stat.

Heard a caller on WFAN say that the Mets had 28 blown saves.

Which is true.

Though not explored deeply, the intimation is that the Mets lost A LOT of games they "should have" won ... "would have" won if their bullpen was better.

Which, of course, is also true.

If any team was better at any aspect of the game, then they'd win more games.

But the stat itself is misunderstood.

Do you know how many blown saves the Yankees had in 2019?

28.

Ottavino had 7 blown saves. Probably in the 6th inning. The Yankees probably came back to win some of those games.

A blown save isn't what you think it is.

It's not always a 9th inning meltdown.

Though there is a stat which measures that. I think it's called "meltdown."


Diaz had some memorable whoppers. So did every team's closer.

Seth Lugo ... the "best reliever in baseball" had a save percentage of 54.5%.

Zach Britton is a good pitcher who had a good year.

His presence in the Mets bullpen is not turning an 86-win team into a 115-win team.

How weird is it that Gardner is batting third?

A weird idea is floating about that he is a clutch playoff performer.

I looked it up just to make sure I remembered correctly.

.204 playoffs BA in 137 AB.

.000 WS BA in 10 AB.

Yes, he has been on the team a long time. The team has not made the World Series a lot during that time.