Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Why Derek Jeter Isn't the MVP.

Still got fifty games to go, so this discussion is "Who's the MVP if the season ended today?"

Jeter is making a strong bid, but ...

"Now, the Yankees and their fans have a habit of overstating the case. Exaggeration and hype are as much a part of the Yankee Stadium experience as Bob Sheppard, or the YMCA."

With one notable exception, who just happened to be last year's AL MVP.

I don't mind Dan Graziano's gushing column. I don't mind Torre's intimation that Jeter deserves the MVP because Jeter, like, fouls off a lot of tough pitches before striking out.

This is typical hometown support. It's typical overstating of your candidate's case. I'm sure Mike Scioscia is telling repoters that Chone Figgins is so versatile and such a clubhouse presence and you've just got to watch him play every day.

It's very striking when compared to last year at this time, when I was bombarded with made-up statistical splits like "close-and-late." I want Graziano to dismiss Jeter because Jeter has zero walk-off homeruns. At least Graziano would be intellectually consistent.

(In fairness, I don't specifically remember Graziano's thoughts regarding last year's MVP race. I just lumped him in with all the general anti-ARod sentiment in New York.)


"'If people are paying attention,' Yankees manager Joe Torre said before last night's game, 'there's no reason he shouldn't be able to win it.'

That's the thing, though, about Jeter as an MVP candidate. You have to look pretty closely to get it."

Simply untrue. Jeter's MVP candidacy is solidly based on the stats.

.343/.418/.484, 71 rbis, 81 runs scored.

The problem is that David Ortiz already has 41 hrs, 111 rbis, 86 runs scored and 10,000 previous columns which explained why David Ortiz is the clutchiest clutch player of the last 100 years.

Don't you people see what you did? In your zeal to pump up David Ortiz vis a vis Alex Rodriguez in 2005, you created a Big Papi monster. You can't just dismiss Ortiz as hype now that Jeter is Ortiz's competition.


"By most objective measures, Jeter is a poor defensive shortstop. But he does seem to have that knack for making the big play in the big spot -- the one that gets on the highlight shows, the one that makes Yankee fans angry when they read sentences like the first one of this paragraph. He's probably the game's best all-around baserunner, as his 26 steals in 29 attempts this season help illustrate. And his contributions on offense are downright polychromatic."

I think the much-maligned objective defensive measures show that Jeter is having an excellent year at shortstop. It's Dan Graziano's column, so I'll let him do the research. Which he doesn't even bother to do.

Without a doubt, by most objective and subjective measures, Jeter's Gold Gloves in 2004 and 2005 were jokes. But we're talking about 2006.


"This year, voters will be looking for a candidate, because the field, while crowded, is as yet undefined. Many of the top statistical candidates -- David Ortiz, Travis Hafner, Jim Thome, Jason Giambi -- are designated hitters. The best statistical candidate, Manny Ramirez, lags too far behind teammate Ortiz in MVP hype to win it."

You just defined an field of candidates which you said was undefined. That wasn't too difficult to define, was it?

I also have no idea why he'd pick Manny Ramirez as the "best statistical candidate." (As opposed to the "non-statistical candidates," like Derek Jeter. Vote with your heart.)

Which statistic?

Manny is a strong candidate, indeed. He's 9th in BA, 2nd in ob%, 4th in slugging%, 6th in rbis, 17th in runs. Those are all statistics. Therefore, Manny is a "statistical candidate."

But it's very easy to make an argument that several other players are better "statistical candidates." Hafner, Ortiz, Thome, Dye ...


"If the Twins get in, Joe Mauer -- the league's best catcher and the only American League player currently ahead of Jeter in batting average -- will make a strong case, but he trails teammate Justin Morneau badly in the power categories."

Bam!

Graziano had to go right back to the power categories. You knew he had to. Which is what the voters will also go back to, despite the Barry Larkin and Kirk Gibson anomalies.

But there's the rub. If you go with the RBIs, the pick is Ortiz. If you go with the "polychromatic" players, the pick is Mauer.

No comments: