The Case for Randy Johnson.

Ken Davidoff:

"There's no disputing that Johnson's 2006 was lousy, especially given his $16-million salary. Yet he still managed to throw 205 innings and win 17 games with a herniated disc in his back.

...

What Johnson shares with Pavano in clubhouse charm (zero), he more than trumps in reliability. He takes the ball every fifth day. Expect motivation to erase last year's embarrassments, as well as build toward both 300 career victories and another contract."

Innings matter.

Randy Johnson is old and his health is a question mark. But Randy Johnson's health issues are minor compared to Mussina's shoulder, Pettitte's elbow, and Pavano's vagina.

What's left for the back end of the Yankee 2007 rotation? A Japanese pitcher, minor-leaguer Phil Hughes, and Jeff Karstens.

I have as much faith in those guys as I had in Shawn Chacon and ... who's the other guy? ... the guy with the big chin who went 10-0? ... oh, yeah ... Aaron Small.

Remember 10-0 Aaron Small?


Tim Marchman:

"The unpleasant fact about Johnson is he may well be the Yankees' best starting pitcher. Take that 5.00 ERA, for instance. It was bad, but Johnson's underlying performance was good. His component ERA — a number derived from the hits, strikeouts, and so on, he allowed — was 3.81 in 2006, 13th-best in the American League. In fact, the disparity between the two numbers was the highest in the league. Component ERA, for a variety of reasons, is a better predictor of future success than actual ERA, and statistically, Johnson looks like an excellent bet to post an ERA of around 3.75 this coming season — a better bet, actually, than any other Yankee starter."

I'd take a good ERA over a good Component ERA, but it should be intuitively obvious that Johnson is set up for a better 2007 than 2006.

Since when is surgery a bad thing? Surgery is a good thing. That's why you have the surgery.