The Yankees and Red Sox were good teams in 2011 and will continue to be good teams.

An annual off-season ritual is to gaze into the Yankees' dystopian future:

"On the surface anyway, the Red Sox's historic September collapse and the quick extermination from the playoffs by Jim Leyland's Detroit Tigers could lead one to think there may be hope after all for the other three, less-affluent clubs in the American League East, particularly this year's feel-good story, the Tampa Bay Rays."

One might think that if one is foolish.


Break down this reasoning: A well-timed Russell Martin sac fly and the Yankees advance to the ALCS ... and, because of this, the Blue Jays lose all hope?


The Red Sox underachieved to 90 wins. They were in the playoffs until the last play of the season.

The Yankees somehow cake-walked to 97 wins.

Despite the AL East's so-called "early exits" from the playoffs, the AL East is the best division in baseball.


"In the Yankees' case, we're talking about a veteran team that got by all season with a patchwork starting rotation that will now require an infusion of even more millions, between the necessity of adding another No. 2 or No. 3 starter and the re-negotiation with CC Sabathia when he opts out of the four years and $92 million remaining on his deal."

A lot of veterans.

Also, a lot of young players: Robertson, Joba, Hughes, Nova, Gardner, Cervelli, Montero, Romine ...


"In the meantime, the Yankees are strangled by the $143 million remaining on Alex Rodriguez's insane contract, which runs through 2017."

If the Yankees are strangled by ARod's contract, then how can they afford to re-negotiate with Sabathia AND also afford a No. 2 or No. 3 starter?


"Right there, that's about $65 million per year in payroll the Yankees will have committed to three players for the next five to six years – three players who only figure to regress and, thus, will be virtually untradeable."

Trade?

Madden thinks the Yankees are going to trade ARod, Sabathia, or Teixeira?

So even if the Yankees signed Pujols for first base, they couldn't even use Teixeira as an overpaid pinch hitter?


"But the Red Sox are in just as bad shape in regard to bad contracts, which figure to severely cramp them in the coming years."

The bad contracts figure to do nothing of the sort.

To extend the metaphor, think of the big payroll as Midol for the severe cramping caused by bad contracts.


"Granted, the Yankees and Red Sox, more than any of the other 28 teams, with their seemingly unlimited stadium and marketing resources, have the ability to eat their losses on bad contracts and move on."

Granted.

So your argument is kaput.


"But there's a reason neither of them are playing more baseball this year, namely that their highest-paid players didn't live up to the money they're getting paid."

Of course this is true.

Player X is highly-paid and underperformed and this causes anger.

The problem with the proposed fixes, though, is that they incorrectly presume that an inexpensive replacement would play better.


"The Rays have the best young starting pitching in baseball, one of the best managers in baseball in Joe Maddon and, in Andrew Friedman, one of the best GMs in baseball - and most everyone agrees the Rays are a couple of quality, productive bats away from being the best team in baseball."

The Rays have one good, young starting pitcher and his name is Jeremy Hellickson.

Which is not to say James Shields isn't good, but he's not young.

Which is not to say David Price isn't young, but he's not good.


The Phillies' #5 starter was 11-3.

The Rays are a good team. I think the Rays have been disrespected and under-appreciated for four years. But they're not one or two bats away from being the best team in baseball.


" 'It won't be my decision, or solely my decision, but eventually Major League Baseball is going to vaporize this team,' Sternberg said. 'It could go on nine, 10, 12 more years, but between now and then it's going to vaporize this team. Maybe a check gets written locally, maybe someone writes me a check (to buy the team). If I had $80 million to put out there, we'd be moving along in life. We just don't have $12 million to put into a hitter.' "

I'm calling shenanigans on this whole line of thinking.

I know a high payroll is beneficial. It's why the Yankees and Red Sox will succeed in 2012.

But when Madden mentioned "diminishing returns," he should also understand how that applies to baseball payrolls.

Tampa is reaping the benefits of lots of last-place finishes. They got lots of high draft picks, which allows them to (briefly) stuff the roster with young players, who are productive at pre-free-agency prices.

But the Rays GM would be surprised at how little extra production he'd get for $80 million. The benefit isn't linear. Put it this way: If the Rays doubled their payroll, I guarantee they wouldn't win 182 games next year.