Sunday, September 15, 2013

Nate Silver he ain't.

A sample size of 1,000 is huge.

One does not need to poll "ten bazillion" people. After the first nine bazillion, the final bazillion are just going to confirm the results you've already observed.

In fact, you don't need to poll anywhere near 9 bazillion. A survey of 50 people is quite accurate.

A poll of 1,000 people gives us 95% confidence that the results are within the 4-percentage-point margin of error (+/- 2%):

"But maybe my favorite addition to A-Rod’s ever-changing narrative is this recent survey of 1,000 baseball fans across the country who have him as the face of baseball. A thousand.

Out of a whole country of baseball fans, about ten bazillion of them.

If you polled a thousand people across the country, Anthony Weiner would have been the face of the New York City mayoral campaign."


A few observations that should be obvious to adults, but are not obvious to mushbrains like Lupica:

1) Picking ARod as the "Face of Baseball" may be intended as an insult to baseball.

2) Weiner may very well be the "Face of the Mayoral Race." This is accurate, as long as the "Face" of the Mayoral Race" is differentiated from the "Winner" of the Mayoral Race.

3) Like it or not, ARod is the Face of Baseball. Lupica should not be so shocked. The Daily News is the vehicle, Madden and Lupica are the drivers, ARod is just along for the ride. Maybe if the Daily News wrote one word about Josh Donaldson ...


"Suddenly there is this notion, because Alex Rodriguez has exceeded expectations as a baseball player in his return to the Yankees, that somehow he’s altered the circumstances of Major League Baseball’s case against him."


No.

Few who admire ARod's performance on the baseball field have altered expectations regarding MLB's case.

Lupica should ask himself why the expectations were so low in the first place. It's because the writers hate ARod and are rooting against ARod. This personal animus poisons their opinions and is a disservice to their readers.

The same writers who drool at the memory of Piazza's post-9/11 homerun.

So please don't tell me they're anti-steroid. They're just anti-ARod.


"Since the Yankees are in Boston right now, by the way, just remember where the Red Sox were one year ago and where they are because of all the moves Ben Cherington made.

Starting with making John Farrell his new manager."


Says the guy who enthusiastically endorsed Bobby Valentine last year.

In normal circumstances, I would conclude that the Valentine endorsement hurt Lupica's credibility. But, since we're talking about Lupica ...


"If you’re going to lose your mind because you think the other team is stealing signs, the way Joe Girardi did in Baltimore this past week, you have to make sure that your guys have never done the same thing themselves, right?"


Wrong, wrong wrong! Wrong, I say!

You really don't get it.



We are not impartial observers, we are not moral arbiters, we are not looking at the big picture.

Stealing signs is good when we do it, but it's bad when they do it. Whatever helps our team win the game.

Whichever team wins the World Series, steroids will be on that field. If you want to take a moral stand and abandon sports, be my guest. I am rooting for my team's cheaters to score more points than the other team's cheaters.


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