So you're saying the Yankees won't win the World Series.

Let's talk about things that everybody knows:

"Everybody knows this is a home run time in baseball. Everybody can see it’s another home run season, one in which teams will again hit more home runs in a season that at any other time in history."

Unless we're talking about Pete Alonso.


"The Yankees set the team record last season with 267, and they are likely going to fly past that number in September -- even in a season when Giancarlo Stanton, who once hit 59 in a season for the Marlins, has hit just one because of injuries and Aaron Judge, who has gotten hot lately, had just 18 coming into the weekend because of his own injury issues earlier in the year."

No mention of Encarnacion.


"The Yankees have hit more home runs in August alone (70) than any team has hit in a calendar month. They had 250 for the season heading into their weekend series against the A’s, and guess what? That number wasn't even the most in baseball this season, because the Twins had 261."

Twins hoping to ride home run surge to World Series win.


"I called the Elias Sports Bureau on Thursday -- they know everything! -- because I was curious about the correlation between homers and winning a World Series. This is the list I was given:"

You called the Elias Sports Bureau?

That's 5 minutes of research on the Internet.


"Not only are the 2009 Yankees the last to do it, the Astros in '17 were the last team to finish in the Top 5 in homers and win it all."

2009 was only ten years ago.

2017 was only two years ago.


"Nobody would suggest that the number of homers hit by the Twins and Yankees -- who are going to finish first and second in homers in 2019, unless the Dodgers or Astros have the kind of power surge in September that the Yanks just had in August -- are some kind of disqualifier for actually winning the World Series in a home run world."


Nobody except you.

This entire exercise is suggesting that the number of homers hit by the Twins and Yankees are some kind of disqualifier for actually winning the World Series.

If you're not suggesting that, then why did you call Elias Sports Bureau and provide us with a table correlating regular season home run totals to World Series victories?

If it's just rows and columns of random numbers signifying nothing, then you can call the folks at Purina and ask how much dog food was purchased in the cities of ALCS Champions over the past 20 years. You can even run trending analyses and figure out the standard deviation.


"And they're probably going to hit 300 home runs this season.

It’s a pretty amazing number. So are the numbers in our list of World Series winners."

The numbers that don't suggest anything. They're simultaneously amazing and suggestive of nothing.


Say what you mean, coward.

You're saying the Yankees won't win the World Series because they rely too much on the home run and strike out too much.

You're saying you're unimpressed.

You can't wait for Madison Bumgarner to shut 'em down in October.

Well, if that's what you really think, then don't hedge your bet.

If that's not what you really think, then there is no point to any of this.


It's not even a risky proposition.

Only one team is going to win the World Series. It probably won't be the Yankees or the Twins.

It probably won't be the team that hits the most home runs. It also probably won't be the team who wins the most games in the regular season. It probably won't be the team with the best team ERA.

Boston was 8th in team ERA in 2018 ... Houston was 11th in 2017 ... the Cubs were first in 2016, but that was three years ago! ... KC was 10th in 2015 ... San Francisco was 10th in 2014 ...

Not because any of these are bad things for baseball teams to do, but because ten teams make the playoffs and winning the World Series is hard.

You have to play well at the right time and get lucky.


You'll always be able to explain why the championship team won the championship. The winning team probably out-pitched the competition and, in retrospect, the bullpen had hearts of champions and overcame adversity. The vets came through by providing leadership and two or three unheralded heroes "stepped up."

But you won't find regular season team stats that provide much predictive guidance, nor will you easily be able to predict the winner before the playoffs start.

I figured that out all by myself without calling Elias.

Aaron Judge is the best player on the Yankees and one of the best players in MLB.

Lupica just capriciously picks players that he's going to debase every chance he gets, regardless of on-field performance:

"Sometimes you wonder if Aaron Judge, who finally started to pull the ball for home runs during the Yankees’ last road trip, might have crossed himself up, and more than somewhat, by falling in love with that Williamsport-like rightfield wall at the new Stadium."

Of all the criticisms of a player I've ever heard ... the ability to hit opposite-field HRs ... the ability to effectively adjust to the home ball park ... sound the most like compliments.

Put it this way: If Judge wants to hit 73 opposite field HRs in 2020, I'm all for it.


How crossed up is Aaron Judge, anyway?

.280/.387/.514.

55 runs, 42 RBIs, 18 HRs, 15 doubles, 50 walks in approximately half a season.

Some slump.

Throw in his baserunning and fielding and guess what? He's the best player on the Yankees.


He strikes out too much and probably always will

If that really qualifies as "crossed up," then he has been crossed up his whole Rookie of the Year near-MVP All Star career.


By the way?

The advantages "Willamsport-like rightfield wall" at Yankee Stadium goes for Gio Urshela, Luke Voit, Brett Gardner ... and, really, every Yankee HR hitter since Babe Ruth

Difference is, Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle, Yogi, Gamble, Nettles, Winfield, Jeter, Ibanez, Dan Pasqua, and all the others didn't get to play with Steroid Ball.

I am pleased I underestimated Gio Urshela.

Is he the biggest surprise on the Yankees? I guess so.

German is 17-3 and I didn't even knew who he was before the season started.

Tauchman has an .886 OPS and 45 RBIs in half a season ... and ... who is Mike Tauchman?


Some of offensive numbers I don't know what to make of anymore.

Alonso and Bell and Urshela and Alvarez ... they're all doing well against their peers.

I just don't know if we can process the power numbers of 2019 in any kind of historical context.

No matter.

Urshela proved doubters wrong and I was a doubter.

In fact, I still think Andujar has a higher ceiling.


My gripe is not with the content of the article.

My gripe is the Jinx Factor.

Though it didn't work with Urshela the first time ... let's not forget how Lupica wrote off Aaron Judge two weeks ago.

After which Judge basically hit a HR-per-game.

Game-tying run taken off the scoreboard in the ninth inning.

When Tauchman struck out, Boone should have pointed out that the Dodgers never called Time In.

Or at least ask the umps for a Do Over.

Quick, before our parents call us in for dinner … olley olley in come free.

Of course it's not a big deal anymore.

Ask Chris Carter.

The numbers back up the grouchy old men in this case.

I'm not sure why Bob Nightengale feels a need to disparage the activity which indirectly employs him ... (have you ever thought about the actual job of being the baseball columnist for USA Today? ... it must be like being the crossword puzzle editor for Reader's Digest) ... but it's hard to argue with the facts:

"For the 12th consecutive season, hitters are on pace to break the strikeout record with 42,607 – 1,400 more than last year.

This year, 36% of all plate appearances have resulted in a strikeout, homer, walk or hit-by-pitch.

'We’re seeing all kind of guys who can hit home runs,' Rose said, but they can’t hit.'

Of course, that dovetails with the record home run rate this season. Entering Sunday, the league was on pace for 6,823 homers, more than 700 above the record set in 2017."

I also think the modern-day pitcher needs to be cut some slack.

I don't know how Seaver and Carlton would perform these days.

They'd surely be better than, say, Ivan Nova and his six innings per start.

But I'm almost 100% sure they couldn't sail through these lineups in these ballparks with these juiced up baseballs.

Judge has hit .212 over the past 30 games. I love the fans and writers who already think Judge is old news.

If I wanted to, I could do this analysis for any Championship team ever.

I could also do this analysis for every current MLB team.

"Sure, [team] has won [xyz] games, but their team has a flaw that has not been adequately addressed. They recently lost badly to [team] because [player] played poorly. They are relying on [star player] who is in a slump. What will happen in October? Fans of [team] should be worried."

"This was going to be about the Yankees and their starting pitching, and whether they could get their starters through the other team’s batting order at least twice in the postseason before turning the game over to their bullpen."

Twice through the lineup?

Probably.

Not three times through the lineup.


The Yankees want a tie game after five innings, with the presumption that they can win a battle of the bullpens.


"Then the Yankees went with one of those relievers, Chad Green, as an opener in Thursday night’s game against the Indians. Green didn’t make it through the Indians’ order once before giving up a grand slam to Jose Ramirez. The game ended up a 19-5 win for the Indians."

Everything changed because the Yankees lost a game by 14 runs.


"If the Yankees face the Indians in October, whether the Indians are the American League Central champs or an AL Wild Card, they won’t be throwing Green at them in Game 1."

Well, okay.

I can easily think of a scenario where Chad Green starts Game One of a playoff series.

But, whatever.

"Won't" means "probably won't" and I can move on.

I don't know what this is leading to.

I just think Lupica wanted to point out that the Yankees lost a game by 14 runs.


"Now, no one is still quite sure who the Game 1 starter for the Yankees, whether it will be Domingo Germán, this year’s young ace, or the rehabbing Luis Severino, last year’s young ace. Or Masahiro Tanaka. Or James Paxton."

If you're talking about the playoff rotation pecking order, it's Tanaka in Game One and German in Game Two.

Barring injuries and other unforeseen circumstances.


"But what we do know is that starting pitching is going to be an issue for the Yankees come October, even though they are likely going to be coming off a regular season in which they win even more than the 100 games they won last year, and still might end up with the best record in their league, maybe even in the whole sport."

Completely backwards.

It's as if Lupica doesn't actually know that English words have specific meanings.


What we know with reasonable certainty is the starters the Yankees will use in the playoffs.

What we don't know with reasonable certainty is how effective they will be. Or what team(s) they will play.

About the only thing I'd bank on is Paxton giving up runs in the first inning. What a tool that guy is.


"The Yankees didn’t make a deal for a starter at the July 31 Trade Deadline. Rather than make what he considered a bad deal, general manager Brian Cashman made no deal at all. Here is something Cashman said after the Trade Deadline:

'This is a damn good roster and it can compete, we feel, with anybody in the game.’' "

Eh, forget it.

Too much wasted energy discussing the pitchers the Yankees were going to acquire at the trading deadline.


It's as if nobody has noticed that every AL playoff game is going to have double-digit scores and lots of home runs and no starting pitcher can stop it.

Certainly no starting pitcher that was available at the trading deadline.


"The questions about the Yankees’ starting pitching -- especially if they end up against the Astros in the AL Championship Series the way they did two years ago -- will stick to them like a tick until one of their starters throws a gem in October."



The Yankees are going to rely on their bullpen, their fielding, hitting with runner in scoring position.

The same way they got to 100 wins.
 
Of course it will be harder in the playoffs. It's the playoffs.

It's going to be harder for their opponent, too.

Get used to it.

Every rookie is the best rookie ever?

It's getting hard to understand the numbers.

Is 30 HRs and 100 RBIs just mediocre?

Ruth and Gehrig alright.

An extreme example.

John and Suzyn lose their minds when a batter fouls off a lot of pitches:

"We all wish he could have hit one out of the park or something like that, but there are so many positives in that at-bat," McGuire said. "All three of those at-bats were, I guarantee, a lot tougher than Chapman was probably expecting.”

He fouled off a bunch of pitches and then grounded into a double play.

... and he won't be the last.

Q:	Aristides Aquino became the second player in MLB history to record a three-homer game in his first 10 career games. Who was the other player to achieve this feat?
A:	The Phillies' Bobby Estalella (1997)

A record that will probably last until Thursday.

A convoluted partial defense of J.A. Happ.

“Right now it seems like if it can go wrong, it will,” Happ said. “It's frustrating. I'm certainly not feeling sorry for myself, I've got to find a way out of it. I felt like I made a pitch to get out of that fourth, and it didn't happen. Then I didn't make a pitch, and we got hurt there. Every out is huge, and I just wasn't able to close it down.”

No need to highlight your teammate's error, but have any pitchers pointed out what is going on with the ball?

Happ has allowed 29 HRs this season, 3 more last night.

Has any pitcher, in a postgame interview, finally snapped and called BS on this?

Gregorius hit one onto Eutaw Street.

Romine hit one out of Fenway Park.

I heard someone say Alonso is a "low ball hitter" after he golfed a ball 450 feet on an off-balance swing.

Frazier's game-tying HR was legit ... but the upper deck at Citi Field?

It wasn't long ago that distance like that was reserved for Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire.

The ball is juiced. 

They took the game away from pitchers like Happ.

Bo Bichette is the next Ted Williams.

"If that sounds impressive for a rookie, it’s because it is.  Bichette is the first freshman to pick up 12 or more extra-base hits in his first 11 games and the first rookie since Ted Williams in 1939 to collect an extra-base hit in nine straight. He’s also the first player in MLB history—not just rookies, but everyone—with a doubles streak of nine or more games."

Home runs are cheap.

Nothing against Alonso, but something about the WOW coverage of HRs is bugging me.

As every HR record falls, can we please stop being faux-impressed with HR totals? 

Put them in context.

Chop 30% off the inflated number.

Alonso's 36 HRs in 2019 are really 25 HRs. Still a lot for early August, but he's not Darryl Strawberry.

While the profile of Alonso’s high school coach is one of the most edge-of-your-seat fascinating profiles of a high school baseball coach I’ve ever read in my entire life, and Alonso is doing quite well compared with his peers ... Alonso is going to strike out 180 times and is batting .208 with RISP.

He is not in the NL MVP conversation.

At first, it sure seems odd that the Yankees don't call up Frazier.

But Tauchman and Maybin aren't exactly playing like chopped liver, Suzyn.

NOW can Frazier get promoted? For a couple of weeks?

The Eye Test

Something is up.

It's not just the volume of HRs, it's when the backup catcher hits an opposite field 450-foot fly ball.