Monday, August 19, 2024

Saves are a stupid stat. Blown saves are even stupider.

“Man, he’s blown 10 saves,” Boomer said. “Think about where they would be if he just did his job half the time.”

I think Mr. Genius means "done his job" half the time in the games with blown saves. Which would mean five blown saves instead of ten. "Doing his job half the time" ignores the 26 successful saves.

I'm not delusional enough to think Holmes is an elite closer. There aren't many elite closers. If there were, then the word would lose its meaning. But he's been good all season, with a small number of horrible outings.

I mean, it takes two minutes to look this up on the Internet.

The Yankees have won three of the games in which Holmes has blown the save.

In four of Holmes's ten blown saves, he has allowed zero earned runs. That's one of my favorite stats, actually.

Bad defense; grounding into double plays; never throwing out opposing base stealers; pitchers all over the place who walk too many batters at inopportune times and also hit them with a lot of pitches at inopportune times; inability to hit situationally or hit with RISP.

Do any of these problems sound familiar?

Doesn't anyone watch the games?

Doesn't anyone remember this gem where lizard-brained commenters put the blame on Holmes because he didn't just strike out all the batters?

The general consensus is that Holmes will blow a save in the playoffs and this will cost the Yankees a trip to the World Series. 

I say the Yankees get swept in a three-game series in which they score a grand total of five runs, allow seven unearned runs, and bat 1-for-24 with RISP. Holmes has an ERA of 0.00 while pitching one inning in a Game Three loss. Boone decides to use Holmes in a non-save situation because, when your team is shutout, there ain't no save situation.

I can even describe in great detail the first inning of any playoff game started by Stroman, Rodon, or Cortes. The first two outs will come easily. Then an 0-2 count on the third batter becomes a 12-pitch full count foul-ball-fest until the batter walks. Then a stolen base with a throw into centerfield. Followed by a wild pitch. So it's 1-0. But now pitcher is flustered. A HBP, an error on a pickoff throw, an error by Gleyber or Volpe scores run #2. Then a walk, walk, walk, walk, grand slam. It is 8-0 and Suzyn is explaining how it is frustrating because he was one pitch away from getting out of the inning. Also, there is some action in the Yankee bullpen by this point.

What Boomer is imagining is five more wins for the Yankees. I guess. I am applying logic to illogical and ignorant observations.

So where would the Yankees be if Holmes had done his job half the time? Five more wins. That was easy math. Ten divided by two is five last time I checked. Then the Yankees are in first place by five games instead of tied for first place. That's how things work!

But that silly analysis requires imagining a closer with a 100% save percentage and a shortstop who can field ground balls in the ninth inning.

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