Tuesday, September 17, 2024

We need to talk about Jordan.

No one mentions Jordan Montgomery's 6.23 ERA. His $25 million contract isn't worth a 6.23 ERA. Cashman must be a genius? No?

Not reality.

I believe 12 pitchers are typical for a playoff roster. 

Top three starters in my mind are Cole, Gil, and Schmidt. I don't think it's debatable.

The fourth starter I suppose is Rodon, though I'd be just as comfortable (read: uncomfortable) with Stroman. 

Cortes goes to the bullpen, undermined by his own versatility and, gee, a 3.90 ERA doesn't distinguish him from the others.

So that's five. If you want to put Stroman on the playoff roster, that's six, though I'm not sure why you would do that.

In what possible scenario is Stroman going to be more reliable out of the bullpen than Holmes? In which pitching statistic is Stroman better than Holmes?

OK, but let's just say for the purpose of discussion that Stroman makes the roster. That's six and there are six more to go.

In order to eliminate Holmes from the roster ... why are we doing this? ... you'd need to find six players in the Yankees bullpen who are better than Holmes.

1. Kahnle

2. Weaver

3. Cousins

4. and 5. Hill and Mayza because you want lefties?

6. Ian Hamilton? Rob Marinaccio?

OK, I suppose this is possible, but I think Holmes is the fourth-best pitcher in the bullpen ... and I wouldn't even include Stroman on the roster in the first place.

So while I think it's obvious that Holmes is on the roster due to the simple math involved, Keith McPherson has other ideas:

"Keith would give the spot to nearly anybody else at this point, including youngster Clayton Beeter, an exicting pitching prospect brought over in the Joey Gallo trade who is finally fully healthy this season."

Clay Holmes is a two-time all star with 29 saves this season, but McPherson is ready to put Clayton Beeter on the playoff roster to save the Yankees' season.

Fine.

Let's hope the offense and defense show up and we don't have to pin our hopes on either Holmes or Beeter. Maybe we can agree on that.


 

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Volpe in the clutch.

2024 RISP: .205.

2024 two outs RISP: .217.

Technically speaking, these are improvements over last season.

So if he keeps it up, maybe he will bat .300 with RISP by the year 2120.


The same article for 25 years at least.

The Mets are playing better than the Yankees.

No one anywhere is saying otherwise.

You know how I know the Mets are playing better than the Yankees? I looked at the standings. The "last ten games" and such. This fact isn't officially verified because Mike Lupica says so.

So why does anyone even care if the Yankees are "overshadowing" the Mets? What does that even mean? Where does Mike Lupica think sports fans are going to consume sports information?

If you're a Mets fan, you pay attention to the Mets. If you're a Yankee fan, you pay attention to the Yankees.

If you want to read about the Mets, you have plenty of places devoted specifically to the Mets. Most of the WFAN hosts are Mets fans. The only time WFAN talks about the first-place Yankees is to complain about them.

The boring Yankees have a three-game lead on the Orioles. The mediocre Yankees have the best record in the AL. The tedious Yankees just won a game on an Aaron Judge grand slam. The meh Yankees sell out every game.

The Mets will probably make the playoffs, but they might not. If they miss the playoffs, that would take the wind out of Lupica's sails, wouldn't it?

The Mets don't have nearly as much room for error as the Yankees, that's for sure.

One blown save or a ball lost in the sun and they lose a game they should have won. The Braves go on a winning streak of their own and suddenly the Mets are on the outside looking in. Lupica's next article is about how the Mets would have won the World Series if Bader had just hit the cutoff man that one time.

It's why you play 162.

It's why games in April and May count.

Thursday, September 12, 2024

I know "making the playoffs" is a low bar for the Yankees, but they didn't make the playoffs last year.

There's not much to talk about as the Yankees slog through September. First place in the AL East should be a carrot that gives every game a sense of urgency, but it isn't.

Seth Lugo is the big concern keeping the Yankees from #28? Sure. Why not?

The Yankees might not face the Royals in the playoffs.

The Yankees might face the Royals and score six runs off Lugo in the first inning.

If WFAN hosts have a hunch that the Yankee offense will stall out again in the playoffs, I'm certainly on board with that concern. 

I'm also concerned about the horrible defense, the goofy stuff like balks and wild pitches and HBPs, the inability to hit situationally if your name isn't Wells, GIDPs, and ineptitude with RISP.

The Yankees might HR their way out of their sloppy play and win a World Series.

The Yankees also have a good chance when the game is a battle of the bullpens.

Or they just might get lucky.

Or they just might get surprisingly good performances from mediocre players.

I'd be shocked beyond belief if the Yankees suddenly started playing crisp, smart "playoff" baseball in October.

Monday, September 09, 2024

Arguing with no one.

Verducci is undoubtedly thorough.

But everyone is recognizing the unique accomplishments of the soon-to-be three-time MVP.

The question and answer format just isn't effective or useful in this instance.

I'm flabbergasted that Ohtani has proven himself to be an excellent pitcher and elite power hitter ... and then, this year, out of nowhere, he just seemingly decides to go out and steal fifty bases.

This is not even counted as an unearned run.

Yankee pitchers have allowed five runs over the past 3 1/3 games. One home run. Three unearned run plus this garbage "earned" run.

Gleyber doesn't even look like a professional athlete.

I might be able to play second base better than Gleyber.

Saturday, September 07, 2024

Sure, the Yankees are not going to win 100 games.

The Dodgers are the best team. The Phillies have slumped a bit, but they're good. I think the Brewers and Guardians are underrated, but that's just my personal opinion. If the Yankees are mediocre, then there is simply no room for many teams to be good.

Bill Madden can stop living in the past any day now.

The Yankees have one championship in the past 23 years. This isn't news.

To single out Verdugo and Holmes is downright weird and petty.

The other faces of the mediocre Yankees are: Rodon, Cortes, Stroman, Gleyber, Rizzo, Volpe, LeMahieu, Chisolm, Stanton, Wells, Trevino, Grisham, and pretty much the entire bullpen ... though, to be honest, the bullpen has been quite good, and that includes Holmes. Holmes is just under scrutiny because he was assigned the role of "closer" and he isn't Mariano Rivera.

Who did I miss?

Oswaldo Cabrera, Ben Rice, Jon Berti, Jahmai Jones, Taylor Trammell ... do any of these names ring a bell?

I take it back on Wells. I'll elevate Wells to "good."

Stanton has been better than I expected, but get serious. He's a one-trick pony who will strike out every time if the pitcher executes three good pitches.

So, in summary:

Three great players (Judge, Soto, and Cole elevated on account of he's the reigning CYA winner).

Three good players (Wells, Gil, and Schmidt).

Everyone else on the team is mediocre at best.

If you're looking for the "faces of mediocrity" on the 2024 Yankees, you're going to need a camera with a wide lens. One of those panoramic views.

Wednesday, September 04, 2024

And away we go ...

I am not getting into this bad math again, but it's simply incorrect and based on a misunderstanding of what actually happened in the games and what a blown save is:

“I understand that there's other situations which we've hit a lot, like DJ LeMahieu, but there’s nothing to decipher anymore: what you do with Clay Holmes is you tell him you're not a closer anymore, that's it. He has blown eight of his last 18 games, and I know that there seems like there's a lot wrong with the Yankees, but think about this: if you only blew two or three, which most quality closers do if that many, the Yankees are up four games and their entire world seems very different.”

"If that many."

There are no closers whose save percentage is 94%, ever.

Mariano's career save% was 90%.

Holmes is going through a tough stretch. I'm not making excuses. He never was an elite closer, but for a while he was an all star closer. He isn't playing like an all star anymore.

Whether or not the fans "trust" him is based mostly on reputation. He is having, more or less, the same season as Edwin Diaz. Diaz became a fan favorite in his roller coaster Mets career and is therefore cut slack.

 

As for the alternatives?:

"BT has another idea:

'Holmes is out, Luis Gil is in, that’s it,' BT said. 'Clarke Schmidt, you're in the rotation, Luis Gil, you’re the closer, Clay Holmes, you're done.' "

The pitcher with the most walks in the major leagues is your closer in the playoffs. A pitcher with a staggering 4.8 walks per nine innings. A rookie who walks 4.8 batters per nine innings. A rookie with no closer experience who walks 4.8 batters per nine innings. He is the solution. He is the guy you're bringing into the ninth inning of a can't-lose playoff game with a one-run lead.

The batters on the Twins are just going to stand at home plate, pinky swear not to swing the bat, and put the champagne on ice.

If you walk a batter, the run will score. Yankee relievers should live by that motto.

I'm not defending Holmes. When the closer is bad, the losses are bad.

I don't understand the walks. I think it's more than just a lack of focus or a lack of ability. I think it's a strategic shortcoming throughout the entire Yankee team, and maybe throughout MLB.

I also don't think anyone else on this team would be better-suited as a closer. If the struggles continue, we might see Rodon try to close out a game in the playoffs. Maybe it works, who knows? I know for sure that the drama will build with a lot of full counts and fifteen-pitch at-bats.

As for last night's game:

  • I also think Boone made a mistake by pitching Holmes the previous night. A lot of pitches over two nights.
  • The LeMahieu error is typical of this team and, if he isn't a reliable fielder, then he has no place on the roster.
  • The mental baserunning blunder by Chisolm. What is up with this stuff?

A walkoff grand slam obliterates a lot of good things in a baseball game. It also masks a lot of the other problems that just gave runs to the other team or took runs off the board for your team.

Sunday, September 01, 2024

Shaking up the AL East, Rizzo returns to the lineup.

Batting seventh may limit his ability to do what he does best: Ground into double plays.