Seven years from now, when Carlos Beltran's contract can be fully analyzed, Ken Rosenthal will be correct. Because when one argues both sides, it's impossible to be wrong:
"As good as Beltran was last season, his .915 OPS matched that of the Reds' Sean Casey, tying him for 24th among qualifying major leaguers. Beltran's .844 career OPS barely ranks in the top 50 among active players. It's nearly 100 points lower than Alex Rodriguez's OPS was when A-Rod became a free agent after the 2000 season. In fact, from 2000 to '03, Beltran's offensive value was very similar to Cameron's. Beltran's 2004 breakthrough and monster postseason set him apart.
The Mets, then, could be making the same mistake that several clubs have made with their recent free-agent signings -- overrating a player based on his most recent season, then overpaying him to replace a comparable part.
...
I don't buy agent Scott Boras' whimsical career projections for Beltran, but I do buy the idea that a rising star at age 27 is worth the risk. Give the Mets their due; they've landed a franchise player."
The kind of franchise player who's a minor upgrade compared to Mike Cameron?
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