Will Carlos Beltran get better?

Can you believe that Carlos Beltran is only the tenth player in MLB history to sign a $100+ million contract?

Most folks seem to agree that Beltran is not worth anywhere near $17 mill (that's the average if you include bonuses; I think his 2005 salary is, like, $2 million). But the idea is that he's young and he's going to improve and eventually earn his elite money:

"With his body type, age (27) and athleticism, you have to think you're buying the best extended years of his career. While he may not be the gravitational center of the clubhouse, he reminds me of Bernie Williams with his quiet dignity, strength and focus on family and faith. And last time I checked, the Yankees won a few games in October with Williams hitting cleanup and keeping to himself with his guitar in his corner locker.

While Beltran's statistics may not be overwhelming, they will get better -- even at pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium -- as he continues to grow into his power. He is also extraordinarily gifted. He may not be a top 50 OPS guy, but he is among the five best overall players in baseball. (You can also throw Rodriguez, Adrian Beltre, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds in there for starters and commence arguing.)"

I'm not saying the Mets can't win the World Series during Beltran's tenure, but (a) I doubt if Beltran's game will ever approach Prime Bernie, and (b) Beltran can't expect too many Bernie-esque October successes unless the Mets can also find a Mariano Rivera-esque closer.

Also, I have no idea why Verducci consider Beltran to be among the top five overall players in baseball. Off the top of my head, I'd say he is among the top 25 or 30 overall players in the game.

But top five? Let's see ... Bonds, Pujols, Tejada, Manny, Vlad, Ichiro ... hey, that's six already, and Beltran isn't listed. That notion wasn't too difficult to disprove.

So we end up with the original question: Will Beltran get better? This was the promise with Alfonso Soriano. "If Sori did 40/40 this year, he'll eventually do 50/50." (World-renowned statistical scholar Jason Giambi once came up with that predicton.)

If Verducci is truly convinced that age 27 is the beginning of one's career, he ought to talk to Chuck Knoblauch and Carlos Baerga, among countless others.

That's really the essence of the debate, I think. The Mets paid this man based on potential rather than proven performance. This isn't the first time this has occurred, but it's probably the most money ever paid for potential. Rather then comparing him to Willie Mays, maybe we ought to start with Von Hayes.