I'm nuts, you're nuts, everybody's nuts!

"If you aren't worried about what kind of shape Mo Rivera's right arm is going to be in by October, then you're nuts."

One year, Mariano Rivera will be ineffective. Or maybe he'll retire before he gets too old. When either of these events occur, Mike Lupica can finally say "I told ya so."

But the problem is, Lupica has been predicting Mariano Rivera doom and gloom every season for the past nine seasons. I'm not joking. Rivera was supposedly unable to handle the closer's role he inherited from Wetteland, supposedly unable to bounce back from faiure in '97 playoffs, supposedly unable to bounce back from failure in '01 playoffs, supposedly unable to rebound from all the innings, his strikeout ratio is down, he needs to develop another pitch, etc., etc., etc.

Lupica has been proven wrong every year, but if he keeps making the prediction, he will eventually be right.

I have no reason to think '05 won't be a typical Mariano season. A month on the DL, 45 saves, 5 blown saves, era under 2.00. When October rolls around, Mariano will be healthy ... and Lupica will put his dire prediction aside until the next year.