Brian Cashman is not going to get fired.

A regular Nostradamus over here.

Lupica actually publishes an article where he picks nine teams to win the World Series:

"Not giving odds here. This isn’t the sports book at Caesars Palace. No particular order for the rest of the field. But if the Yankees don’t win the World Series, who might?"

No.

It isn't the sports book at Caesars Palace.

The sports book at Caesars Palace has more integrity.


It's not even nine teams. It's nine teams "if the Yankees don't win." That's ten teams total. Out of 30.

I mean, unless you're trying to miss on purpose, one of these teams will almost certainly win the World Series.


"I just don’t believe in the Cubs, at least as presently constituted, and actually think the White Sox might be a more fun team to watch in 2020. I’ve seen too many postseason failures from the Twins against the Yankees to believe in them. The Red Sox are a lot of things right now. A serious contender doesn’t appear to be one of them."

Good to know.

At least it's an actual opinion, written down for posterity, without a hedge.

Mike Lupica does not think the Cubs or Red Sox are going to be good in 2020.


But why not just include the Cubs and White Sox and a few more teams while you're at it?

Bump it up to 12 or 13.

Heck, you can pick these teams randomly and you'd have a good shot at picking the winner.

ARod's contract was worth it. Maybe not for the Rangers.

The Yankees' net worth is now estimated at $4.6 billion. It rose so quickly, I was off by 50%. In my mind, it was $3 billion.


Today is the anniversary of ARod's mind-blowing Rangers' contract.

It's in the news.


According to this analysis ...

"The Yankees paid him $307.8 million for 12 seasons, 351 home runs, 2 MVPs, and one World Series trophy. In the end, the Yankees did get a lot of good production from Rodriguez, but it was also clear that they also got a lot of the bad as his production quickly fell off a cliff at the end."

The first comment I heard the morning after the Cole signing was, "Cole needs to win at least two rings with the Yankees."

Probably won't happen.

Rings, WAR, salary divided by WAR ... all of this analysis misses the main point.



As I've mentioned many times before, ARod's presence immediately pushed the Yankee attendance from 3 million to 4 million, and it stayed there.

It would not be inaccurate to describe the new Stadium as the House that ARod Built.


I'm relying on one guy (Mike Ozanian) to provide the data, and I didn't do all the work.

I'd like to see the rise in the Yankees' net worth year after year since that day in 2004 when they traded away Alfonso Soriano.

This is especially impressive in the context that the Jeter-led four-ring Yankees couldn't do the trick. It was the inexplicably entertaining Villain/Hero.


The Yankees are not a sports team, they are a brand.

The Yankees are not in the baseball business, they are in the entertainment business.

Of course the Yankee owners want a winning team ... because that means more people come to the stadium and walk around with $500 in their pocket.


Do you know how I know ARod's contract was worth it? Because people are still talking about it. In terms of tactical efficiency, I suppose it could be considered a bust.

But how many units did Hiroki Kuroda move?

How many people drove to the South Bronx to buy a Jon Lieber jersey?

Did anyone notice when Bob Abreu sunbathed topless in Central Park? (I have no evidence of this, but try to get the image out of your head.)


Is the Cole signing worth it?

Of course it isn't ... if you really think this is about baseball productivity and payroll efficiency

Come see me in nine years and I'm inclined to believe the Yankee Machine will be rolling along, stronger than ever.

Miller finally made the HOF.

Bittersweet because it's posthumous, but I still never thought I'd see the day.

There is no such thing as story of the decade.

As you read this, please don't forget that it's written by a guy who thinks Josh Hamilton's home run streak at Yankee Stadium ... during the HR Derby ... is one of the greatest moments in Yankee Stadium history:

"This all plays out a little over a month from when last season, and the last decade, ended with a tremendous World Series, won by the Washington Nationals in seven games after they trailed the Astros three games to two, and with the series returning to Minute Maid Park."

Which is a reminder that this is written by a guy who explained how important home field advantage is during the playoffs.


"So before we do turn the page, and before baseball does start making Hot Stove headlines, it is worth noting again that nobody had a better October in the past decade, not even the Cubs, than the Nationals did, starting with their National League Wild Card Game win against the Brewers."

No, I don't know what that could possible mean.

Every team that won the World Series had the Best October.

It's binary. You win or you do not win.


"Think of them as the Cubs without more than a century of waiting."

Then they're not the Cubs.

Follow?

The narrative is the same as the Cubs ... without the central theme that gave the Cubs a compelling narrative.


"Fact is, nobody ever had a better October in any decade."

Nobody ever had a better October in any decade than the Washington Nationals in 2019.

That's a "fact" according to the deranged author.


Then, there is a bunch of nonsensical interpretations of baseball games, by which the 2019 Nationals became the best October baseball team in the history of baseball.

"People always say ..."

"If the Yankees still didn’t have Jacoby (We Hardly Knew Ye) Ellsbury on the books and hadn’t made the trade for Giancarlo Stanton, how much money would they be willing to throw at Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg?"

Gee, I don't know.

Maybe $800 thousand?

No.

$1 billion?

No.

$250 billion.

If not for the contracts of Ellsbury and Stanton, the Yankees would offer $250 billion to Gerrit Cole. One-year contract worth $250 billion.

We go through this every year, over and over, and some people never learn.

Most people apply their personal economic rules to an infinite Corporation currently worth $3 billion.

The Yankees don't want to overpay for Cole or Strasburg.

Cashman has some vague upper limit based on the salary tax, but that's mostly PR.

Lupica's stupid observation is particularly moot since the Yankees only owe Ellsbury between $0 and $26 million.

Cole is going to get, say, 7 years, $225 million, escalator clauses, player opt outs, the whole shebang. If the Yankees really want him, the Yankees will not be outbid.

So, in the year 2027, Cole's salary will be $40 million ... and Cole will probably be washed up by that time.

Any team that signs this man to a long-term contract knows the risks involved. Or any long-term baseball contract, for that matter. Or any long-term anything, for that matter.

But the thing that's stopping the Yankees from pulling the trigger is a long-forgotten $5 million buyout of Jacoby Ellsbury?

No way.


"The books" Lupica is referring to aren't even the correct books.

The income statement is blah blah blah. The Yankees are far more concerned with the balance sheet.

Don't measure a 2-year $26 million contract vs. the $360 million the Yankees will spend on player salaries during those two years (even though $26 million doesn't sound like a heckuva lot when framed in those terms).

Instead, measure a 2-year, $26 million contract vs. $3 billion in assets.

"Don Mattingly belongs in the Hall of Fame.

So does Thurman Munson.

People always say that Mattingly’s level of excellence didn’t last long enough.

Neither did Sandy Koufax’s."

So take Koufax out.

Oh, it's too late to do that.

"Not saying that you compare Mattingly’s excellence with Koufax’s.

Nobody would ever say that."

Nobody would ever say the thing I just said.

"But starting in 1984 and going through the 1989 season (and before his back gave out), Don Mattingly knocked in 684 runs.

His batting averages were these: .343, .324, .352, .327, .311, 303.

In his prime, his fellow players, in a New York Times poll, once voted him the best player in the game.

There are a lot of guys in the Hall of Fame who were never considered the best in the game for one day of their careers."

This is true.

Also, there are a lot of guys not in the Hall of Fame who would have won a players' poll as best player in the game.

That's the end of Lupica's argument. Since Sandy Koufax had a short career with a relatively short period of supremacy, then Mattingly and Munson belong in the HOF.

Not a tough sell to a New York audience.

You forgot Ron Guidry and Don Gullett; Orel Hershiser and Kevin Brown; Fernando Valenzuela and Bob Welch.

Not to mention Lou Whitaker, Jeff Kent, Larry Walker, Bobby Grich, Fred Lynn, and Jorge Posada.

I wouldn't use Koufax as a HOF shoo-in. He captured the imagination of lots of voters during a super-dominant stretch during a high-mound pitchers' era. Koufax is a low bar for HOFers.

Mattingly probably passes that low bar, I suppose, and so does Dale Murphy ... and Al Oliver ... and Dwight Evans ... and ...

The question is ...

Mark Teixeira with some insightful insider commentary:


 "Playing in New York is not for everybody And maybe Gerrit Cole will thrive in New York. But if you told me, as the top free agent on the market, and I'm a West Coast guy, and the Dodgers and Angels are sitting there drooling over me. I'm probably going to look there before I look at the Yankees. I think money being equal, he's not going to the Yankees. If the Yankees completely blow everyone out of the water, then he'll end up in pinstripes."

So Cole will not sign with the Yankees, unless he does.

Gerrit Cole has never won a World Series.

Neither has Clayton Kershaw.

Neither have a lot of big free agent players.

Difference is, for some reason, Cole is the Face of Successful Championship Megadeals.



Then, in order to support his current argument about the value of megadeals, Mike Lupica wrote the following, which seems to reverse his stance for the past fifteen years:

"Rodriguez had been with the Yankees since 2004, opted out of his old Rangers contract during the 2007 World Series, re-upped with the Yankees for the ’08 season. The Yankees won it all in 2009. They couldn’t have done it without him..."


Then Lupica just embarrasses himself, continuing his weird fascination with David Price"

"In the third season after David Price signed his contract with the Red Sox, they won another World Series. And absolutely, hands-down, 100 percent don’t win it without him."

The Red Sox don't win the World Series without David Price? How do you figure?

"Whether or not he’s always pitched like an ace since joining the Red Sox, when they needed him to pitch like a total star in the ALCS against the Astros, starting and relieving, he did that."

That's terrific.

He gave up 4 runs in 10 2/3 innings during the ALCS against the Astros.

You know how the Red Sox could have conceivably won without Price?

If they pitched a guy who gave up 3 runs in 10 2/3 innings.


Then the same observation about Scherzer. He signed a big contract, he pitched pretty well at times in the playoffs, and his team won the World Series.




I can list dozens of nobodies who pitched better than Price and Scherzer in small sample size crunch time.

• Lance McCullers Jr.
• Brad Penny
• David Weathers

Yeah, man. The Red Sox didn't need to pay David Price all that money to win the World Series. They just needed David Weathers and his 0.82 postseason ERA.


So what does this prove?

It doesn't prove anything.

I can find a list of players who fit a criteria and a list of accomplishments and there will always be a cross-section of the two lists.


Most of the time, megadeals don't pay off, if the sole goal is to win the World Series.

Not because the players are bad or because the deals are ill-advised. It's just because winning the World Series is difficult, only one team wins it per year, and one player can't win it all by themselves.

2019 NL MVP

BBWAA

Name	Points
Cody Bellinger	362
Christian Yelich	317
Anthony Rendon	242
Ketel Marte	198
Ronald Acuna Jr.	155
Nolan Arenado	120
Pete Alonso	102
Freddie Freeman	90
Juan Soto	45
Jacob deGrom	44
Josh Donaldson	27
Trevor Story	26
Jack Flaherty	9
J.T. Realmuto	8
Yasmani Grandal	4
Max Muncy	4
Stephen Strasburg	4
Eugenio Suarez	4
Hyun-Jin Ryu	3
Paul Godschmidt	2
Kolten Wong	2
Kevin Pillar	1
Max Scherzer	1

Felz Poll

Name	Points
Cody Bellinger	25
Christian Yelich	24
Anthony Rendon	11
Ronald Acuna Jr.	5
Freddie Freeman	3
Pete Alonso	2

2019 AL MVP

BBWAA

Name	Points
Mike Trout	355
Alex Bregman	335
Marcus Semien	228
DJ Lemahieu	178
Xander Bogaerts	147
Matt Chapman	89
George Springer	69
Mookie Betts	67
Nelson Cruz	62
Gerrit Cole	61
Justin Verlander	56
Rafael Devers	40
Jorge Polanco	20
Austin Meadows	15
Francisco Lindor	13
Carlos Santana	9
Gleyber Torres	8
Eddie Rosario	6
Jose Abreu	5
Max Kepler	2
J.D. Martinez	1
Yoan Mondaca	1
Charlie Morton	1
Matt Olson	1
Jorge Soler	1

Felz Poll

Name	Points
Mike Trout	27
Alex Bregman	22
Nelson Cruz	5
DJ Lemahieu	5
Mookie Betts	3
Rafael Devers	3
Xander Bogaerts	2
Marcus Semien	2
Jorge Polanco	1

MVP Votes

Random observations:

1. Lemahieu made a nice showing with fourth place.
2. Neither Machado nor Harper received one vote.

2019 NL Cy Young Award

BBWAA

Name	Points
Jacob deGrom	207
Hyun-Jin Ryu	88
Max Scherzer	72
Jack Flaherty	69
Stephen Strasburg	53
Mike Soroka	9
Sonny Gray	4
Clayton Kershaw	3
Walker Buehler	2
Kirby Yates	2
Patrick Corbin	1

Felz Poll

Name	Points
Jacob deGrom	25
Hyun-Jin Ryu	12
Stephen Strasburg	11
Max Scherzer	10
Mike Soroka	6
Jack Flaherty	3
Josh Hader	2
Max Fried	1

2019 AL Cy Young Award

BBWAA

Name	Points
Justin Verlander	171
Gerrit Cole	159
Charlie Morton	75
Shane Bieber	64
Lance Lynn	18
Lucas Giolito	8
Eduardo Rodriguez	8
Mike Minor	7

Felz Poll

Name	Points
Justin Verlander	28
Gerrit Cole	21
Shane/Justin Bieber	8
Mike Minor	4
Charlie Morton	4
Domingo German	3
Zach Greinke	2
Aroldis Chapman	1
Lance Lynn	1

This goes beyond gamesmanship

... and if it is widespread, then it's widespread cheating.

I think Beltran will probably do a good job. Maybe. Who knows?

Carlos Beltran is a future HOFer who is one of the best postseason performers in the history of baseball.

In the 2006 NLCS, he hit .296 with 3 HRs and a 1.054 OPS.

In the last out of the series, Adam Wainwright threw a Big Boy Major League curveball and Beltran struck out.

That's the whole idea of competition. There's a highly-skilled person on the other side who is paid a lot of money to achieve a result contrary to your goals. Nobody ever batted 1.000 in major league baseball.

Mets fans suffering from PTSD have more than "occasional grumbles" about this at-bat from 13 years ago:

"Beltran's tenure with the Mets between 2005 and 2011 wasn't all smooth sailing. There are still occasional grumbles about his looking strikeout to end the 2006 National League Championship Series. He later clashed with the team over the timing of his knee surgery in 2010, and he was thrown under the bus by owner Fred Wilpon in 2011. He was eventually traded to the San Francisco Giants during the latter season."

Young Yankee players were very productive when Joe Girardi was the manager of the Yankees.

“I went through that with the Marlins and went through that with the Yankees,” Girardi added. “And I felt that I was able to get the most out of those (young) players. We were one game from reaching the World Series, so if there was a problem, it didn’t show up in the wins and losses.”

Cashman is smarter than you.

Everything Cashman is saying is right.

When the Astros or Nationals lose the World Series, will a reporter ask the GM why his team's season was a failure?

After three games in the Ultimate Test of the World Series, which starting pitcher has pitched like an ace?

I can state with no hesitation that Tanaka, Severino, and Paxton would have pitched better than any of them. I could be wrong about that, but this is not about right and wrong -- it's about confirmation bias.

Clayton Kershaw is the World Series MVP.

How adorable. A bunch of cigar-chomping scouts getting per diems to tell the Washington coaches that Jose Altuve is good:

"They don’t have a single person in their front office from Harvard, Yale or M.I.T.

They believe in pouring money into their scouting and player department.

They have 10 scouts and advisers who are 60 or older – including two who were alive the last time the nation’s capital had a team in the World Series.

They are the Washington Nationals. And they are putting on an old-school beatdown on the Houston Astros."

This is such a nonsense narrative by scared old people.

Like when someone says this song from 20 years ago takes me back to when life was simpler. Of course life was simpler 20 years ago. Not because the world was simple, but because you were a kid in your jammies watching cartoons on television.

Or when people say they were happy that they experienced their childhood before technology took over. If you were born in the past 1,500 years, you were born in a technologically advanced age. 

"The Nationals are proving that it’s still cool to believe in old-fashioned scouting, treat players like human beings instead of assets and value experience as a positive instead of a negative."

The Brewers "should have" beat the Nationals. I guess Hader was not treated as a ... human being?

The Nationals fell behind the powerhouse Dodgers 2-0 in a five-game series. 

Then the Dodgers took the lead into the 8th inning of Game Five.

If Bob Nightengale didn't pick the Nationals before Game Three of the NLDS, then this article is BS. Which it is.

"This is an organization that values old-school scouting and experience perhaps more than any other. They have a staff that includes six former scouting directors, four former managers, two former GMs and every member of their pro scouting staff played professional baseball.

The Nationals blanketed the landscape with scouts this postseason. They had two on every team in the playoffs, including five alone on the American League Championship Series.

The Astros, who don’t have a traditional pro scout, never bothered to send a soul to advance the Nationals during the playoffs."

Give me a break.

The Astros haven't been out-pitched, out-hit, and out-fielded. They've been out-scouted?

"And a subtle reminder this is still a people’s game, played by players, not assets, where clubhouse culture is critical to a team’s success."

It's such a lazy insult to the other 31 teams.

Boone played Hicks on a hunch and it paid off. 

Boone also played Encarnacion and, whether Boone viewed Encarnacion as a "human being" or an "asset," Encarnacion sure played like a liability.

It's such a lazy analysis in other ways, too.

 

One team always wins the World Series. That team always does something right. They're always the team of destiny. That's just 20-20 hindsight garbage.

Before the playoffs started, I heard a lot about the importance of getting the home field advantage. BS.

Before the WS started, I heard a lot about the momentum-killing week-long layoff. BS.

Before the WS started, I also heard a lot about the starting pitching showcase it was going to be. Until they started playing the games. Good Pitching Always Beats Good Hitting ... Except When it Doesn't.

You know what no one said before the WS started?

That the Nationals were going to win.

Another moot point.

Seemingly, the Yankees are clinging to Stanton and presumably losing a Tauchman roster spot because they're worried about losing Stanton for the World Series.

The World Series?

Riiiiiight.

Since the Astros scored zero runs in Game One ...

... I find this to be a moot point and an ineffective strategy.

Fate.

"The good news for the Washington Nationals is that they are in their first World Series."

Full stop.

Thanks for your most recent contribution to MLB.com's coverage of baseball. 


"They beat the champions of the National League West and now they’ve swept the champs of the NL Central."

Yeah.

We know.


"They were down two games to one to the Dodgers and came back to win Game 4. They were down 3-1 in the late innings of Game 5 at Dodger Stadium, and then Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto hit back-to-back home runs against Clayton Kershaw, and Howie Kendrick began turning into Mr. October for the Nats."


 Yeah.

We know.

Who do you think reads articles on MLB.com?

People who have no idea what is happening in MLB?


"Now here they are."

Waiting."

This article will surely help them whittle away their precious time.


"That’s the bad news for the Nationals, riding all this crazy momentum. They wait and keep waiting until the series between the Astros and Yankees is over. And while they wait, they hope that when they start playing again, at either Minute Maid Park or at Yankee Stadium, that they won’t have suffered from the Curse of the Tigers."

You've never heard of the Curse of the Tigers, have you?

Because it isn't a thing.

There is no bad news for the Nationals.

They are waiting to play in the World Series.

The following teams are waiting until April, and all of them would trade their No News for the Nationals' Bad News:

1. Dodgers
2. A's
3. Rays
4. Indians
5. Cardinals
6. Braves
7. Twins
8. Red Sox
9. Mets
10. Cubs
11. Brewers
12. Diamondbacks
13. Phillies
14. Reds
15. Rockies
16. Angels
17. Blue Jays
18. Giants
19. Rangers
20. Pirates
21. Mariners
22. White Sox
23. Padres
24. Marlins
25. Royals
26. Orioles 
27. Tigers

Almost a cheap home run.

A heck of a lot of talk about a warning track fly ball.


The Yankees were not intimidated by Cole.

The Yankees got a lot of runners on base and in scoring position.

But the Yankees could not cash in.

Cole gutted out seven shutout innings and won fair and square.


"Almost home runs" are also known as "fly outs."

"Foul home runs" are also known as strikes.

"Almost strikes" are also known as balls.

"Almost wins" are also known as losses.


Oh, and bunting wasn't going to save the Yankees.

Gardner wasn't going to bunt in five runs in the first inning.

The sportswriter hall of fame must have a very high bar.

"Supposed to" is my favorite phrase in the whole wide world.

It is a lazy, meaningless observation:

"The Astros, who went out and got Zack Greinke at the Trade Deadline, were supposed to have the edge with starting pitching over the Yankees, who didn’t do anything about pitching at the Deadline. Then Masahiro Tanaka was brilliant in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series. Greinke got lit up by the Yankees the way the Rays lit him up in Game 3 of the Astros-Rays Division Series."

In all fairness, 3 runs in 6 innings is not being "lit up."


"Then the Yankees gave the ball to James Paxton, who’d been their best starter the second half of the season, in Game 2"

Then what happened?

 
"Only Aaron Boone pulled Paxton in the third inning. Paxton had only given up one run to that point, but there were two runners on and Alex Bregman was coming to the plate. Paxton was gone."

Wow!

Since I watched the game, I already knew this.

But please continue ... the tension is building!


"By the time Game 2 was over, Boone would have done what the Yankees have done since the Deadline: Made a bet that the best bullpen on the planet could carry the Yankees to what would have been their biggest victory of the season so far, and a 2-0 series lead."

The Yankees relied on their bullpen before the trade deadline, too.

You have not yet told me anything that I didn't know by looking at the box score.


"And his relievers nearly made that bet pay off. Boone used eight of them from the third to the 11th at Minute Maid Park. They only gave the Astros two runs from the third until the bottom of the 11th. By then, Boone was out of relievers and pitching J.A. Happ, who’d been one of his starters."

I knew it! I thought the whole time that J.A. Happ was one of the Yankee starting pitchers. I was right!

Sabathia, too! 'Member when he came in to pitch? He had (?) also been one of Boone's starters ... and he still is one of Boone's starters.

You know what else is weird? Boone wasn't actually out of relievers. Even though you said "Boone was out of relievers."

He just chose two of his starters instead of his relievers. It's true!

Granted, the remaining relievers are not the "high leverage" relievers. Their names are Luis Cessa and Tyler Lyons.

They are relief pitchers on the Yankees playoff roster, yes they are.



"Carlos Correa took Happ out of Minute Maid, and the Astros had won, 3-2, and the ALCS was even at 1-1 going back to New York."

No. Way.

Is that really what happened?

Is he the guy who was shushing the crowed while he rounded the bases? Or is he the guy who was holding his hand up to his ear while he rounded the bases?

Lupica is always first with the breaking news.


"So far in this series each team has gotten a big October game from its ace, Tanaka and then Verlander. But the Astros, who beat the Yankees because of their starters two years ago, have two aces this season. The Yankees? They decided they had enough starting pitching in July, because of their bullpen. Now they get the chance to prove it in October. They got the bullpen game they wanted Sunday night. They just did everything except win it."

You know what, Lupica?

Go screw yourself.

"The Yankees should have gotten a starting pitcher" late night WFAN moron caller garbage.


Who was the pitcher the Yankees were going to get?

Stroman? Meh.

Scherzer? Ridiculous.

Syndergaard? Even more Meh and even more ridiculous.

Say Anibal Sanchez with 20-20 hindsight and I'll slap you.


We all know aces are rare and therefore valuable.

What would it have cost the Yankees? Torres and Frazier, at a minimum.

For a guy who can take on Verlander pitch by pitch?

Even if that pitchers exists ... Buehler? Strasburg? ... obviously not available, but the Yankees would maybe have to throw in Sanchez, Urshela, Kahnle, Montgomery, and Andujar.


Remember when the Yankees picked up Encarnacion?

They didn't "need" more home run power, right?

The opportunity presented itself because the price was right.

The Yankees didn't "decide" they had enough starting pitching ... the market didn't allow them to reasonably acquire more starting pitching.

If the Rays were willing to trade Blake Snell for Greg Bird, Cashman would have been all over it.

The "bullpen" strategy worked in Game Two. The problem is the offense got two runs when they needed three.

The most misunderstood stat.

Heard a caller on WFAN say that the Mets had 28 blown saves.

Which is true.

Though not explored deeply, the intimation is that the Mets lost A LOT of games they "should have" won ... "would have" won if their bullpen was better.

Which, of course, is also true.

If any team was better at any aspect of the game, then they'd win more games.

But the stat itself is misunderstood.

Do you know how many blown saves the Yankees had in 2019?

28.

Ottavino had 7 blown saves. Probably in the 6th inning. The Yankees probably came back to win some of those games.

A blown save isn't what you think it is.

It's not always a 9th inning meltdown.

Though there is a stat which measures that. I think it's called "meltdown."


Diaz had some memorable whoppers. So did every team's closer.

Seth Lugo ... the "best reliever in baseball" had a save percentage of 54.5%.

Zach Britton is a good pitcher who had a good year.

His presence in the Mets bullpen is not turning an 86-win team into a 115-win team.

How weird is it that Gardner is batting third?

A weird idea is floating about that he is a clutch playoff performer.

I looked it up just to make sure I remembered correctly.

.204 playoffs BA in 137 AB.

.000 WS BA in 10 AB.

Yes, he has been on the team a long time. The team has not made the World Series a lot during that time.

The Yankees take a 2-0 lead in the ALDS and I've heard the following complaints from both supporters and detractors.

1. The games took too long.
2. The rather contradictory observation that too many fans vacated their seats.
3. The bullpen usage was not optimal.
4. The fans were too quiet.
5. The rather contradictory observation that the fans rowdily shouted "uber" at an opposing pitcher.

The so-called taunt is a little funny, but not very funny.

It's a little clever in the sense that it requires a deep knowledge of a nondescript major league pitcher.


It's  obnoxious in the sense that it's quite clear that 90 percent of the people participating in the chant have no idea why they're doing it.

But that is sometimes part of the fan experience. You collectively and loudly celebrate the misery of your opponents.

I've heard a lot worse than "uber," believe me.

One time, in Minnesota, I remember when the fans referred to visiting player Mike Carp as a fish. Because his last name sounds like a fish. Vicious.

I also remember a time at Yankee Stadium when ... I can't remember who it was precisely, but it may have been Shannon Stewart ... sounds plausible early in his career ... and the fans in the bleachers were relentless for three hours ... "you have a girl's name" ... and the guy finally snapped in the ninth inning, turned around and flipped the bird to everyone in the bleachers.

As expected, that settled the fans down. They apologized for their obnoxious behavior, took their seats, and promised to refrain from drinking alcohol in public settings going forward.

Showalter is not going to manage the Mets next season.

Players who should be the next Mets manager: Buck Showalter, Tony Womack, Willie Randolph, David Ortiz, Theo Epstein, Mookie Wilson, and Evonne Goolagong.

Players who should not be the next Mets manager: Alex Rodriguez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Serena Williams.


I would be surprised if Showalter manages anywhere next year, but I'm not the Baseball Insider.

I'd be shocked beyond belief if Showalter managed the Mets next year.


Showalter's record doesn't hold up too well under scrutiny.

Lupica knows that Brodie isn't going to give up his decision-making power to an old school manager.


Showalter isn't shy about giving interviews.

Lupica doesn't need to do to print this garbage just to stay in good graces with the quote factory.

Good teammates.

One by one, players approached Grisham with encouragement after the loss.

"I can take solace in whatever these guys say to me, especially a lot of the older veteran guys," Grisham said. "I have a lot of faith in them and trust what they say."

One of these is the greatest home run story in baseball history.

Does anyone remember when Judge hit his 50th? Breaking McGwire's rookie home run record?

Of course nobody remembers. Nobody cares about this record.

I had to look it up: "Oh, yeah. McGwire." It's obvious when I looked it up, but I was thinking, like, Mel Ott. Just a guess.


Lupica is embarrassing himself with this stupidity:

"Pete Alonso already made himself one of the great home run stories in baseball history before he broke Aaron Judge’s all-time rookie home run record with No. 53 on Saturday night at Citi Field against the Braves."

You really don't see it?

How zero rookies hit 50 home runs for the first, like, 130 years of major league baseball?

Then two rookies hit 50 home runs in 3 years?

How this rookie record is going to last about 1 season unless they change the ball?

You're lying.

There's no way you don't see it.

You just worship Pete Alonso and his high school coach.

 
"But the narrative is different for him than it was with Judge."

Oh.

The narrative.

The narrative is the screwy aerodynamics of the baseball.


"There were already expectations for Judge by the time he got to Spring Training in 2017, even if nobody had any idea he would hit 52 homers that year."

So?


"No one knew how much game Alonso really had until he got to Spring Training. Then, he started hitting home runs in Florida ... and never stopped."

I find this hard to believe, even for Lupica.

Of course he never stopped. Nobody in MLB stopped.


"When Alonso hit his record-setting, 415-foot shot, it left him with just eight fewer home runs than Roger Maris’ 61 in 1961 and seven fewer than Babe Ruth’s fabled 60."

You can't be serious.

I have to stop reading this.

If you don't largely attribute this to the juiced ball, you are deranged.



You want to talk about baseball history and then you compare Pete Alonso to Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Roger Maris, and Babe Ruth?

In a season where two teams hit 300 home runs?


Let me explore a tiny bit of baseball history.

In 1927, Babe Ruth hit 6.5% of MLB's home runs. One man.

Do you know how many Pete Alonso would have had to hit in 2019 to match that percentage? About 450.

Which would be a whole lot for one man to hit in one season. It would be vastly superior to his peers, I can tell you that much.

Who?

Who?

Aaron Judge acting like the next Yankee Captain.

Gotta love that opposite field power generated by a textbook swing.

Some of his Home Runs are "home runs."

"Alonso hit it just right -- with a compact swing and without much follow-through -- with two strikes on him, and with as much power as anyone right now in Major League Baseball.

'People can’t hit that pitch out,' Braun said.

He paused, then said, 'I know I coached him. But to me, this kid is the most remarkable thing happening in baseball.' "

It's the baseball. In 2019, everybody can hit that pitch out. It happens every day.


It's not just the baseball.

Alonso has more home runs than anybody else, right?

But the SHOCK and AWE of this opposite field line drive check swing slop sailing 440 feet into the back of the bullpen is silly.


Do you know how many players have 30 home runs? 54. If I counted correctly. It's a very large number; I may have made a mistake.

Have you ever heard of Jorge Soler? He has 45 home runs. Call his high school coach! ... Jorge Soler is the most amazing thing happening in baseball right now ... also, he has been more important for his team than Alonso because Alonso is surrounded by more talent, know what I'm saying?

Brett Gardner has a career high 27 home runs. It's a career high for Gardner. Do you know who else has career highs in home runs? Everyone.

Yordan Alvarez also has 27 home runs. It's a career high for him, too, on account of it's the first season of his career. He has 27 home runs in a mere 294 at-bats.


"Another thing Braun told me when we spoke early in August was that he honestly thought Alonso could hit 55 homers this season and break Aaron Judge’s all-time rookie record of 52. The Plant High School coach wasn’t backing off that prediction on Saturday morning."

I don't doubt it.

The rookie home run record which lasted 2 years will be broken again in another year or two.

Unless the commissioner fixes the ball.


"Bellinger is the likely MVP in t"Bellinger is the likely MVP in the National League. He came out of Friday night’s games hitting nearly 40 points higher than Alonso, and has an OPS of 1.038 to Alonso’s .959. His slugging percentage is .630 to Alonso’s .593. But Alonso has five more home runs, five more RBIs, plus less talent surrounding him in New York than Bellinger does on the other coast.he National League. He came out of Friday night’s games hitting nearly 40 points higher than Alonso, and has an OPS of 1.038 to Alonso’s .959. His slugging percentage is .630 to Alonso’s .593. But Alonso has five more home runs, five more RBIs, plus less talent surrounding him in New York than Bellinger does on the other coast."

Yeah, let's not mention his team's 20 fewer wins.


"But no player in baseball, not one, has been more valuable than Alonso has been to the New York Mets."

That's probably easily disprovable B.S., but this whole time, I thought it was Gio Urshela.

Everyone remembers where they were when Gary Sheffield hit his 500th career home run.

I didn't even remember that he played for the Mets.

It could mean the "world" ... as in "World Series" ... get it?

"But they need homefield throughout the playoffs to give themselves their best chance. They just do. They need to close that deal. It only might mean everything in the end, in an ALCS, then in a World Series."

If you didn't know who "they" was, would you be able to tell Lupica was talking about the Yankees?

Can you think of a baseball team ... or a team in any sport ... who wouldn't want homefield advantage?

In baseball, the home team bats second, which has lots of advantages in and of itself.

I could go on, but I wouldn't insult your intelligence like that.


"Start in their own league: As good as they are at home, the Astros are better. And please remember what happened the last time the two teams played in October: The Yankees won the middle three games of the American League Championship Series at the Stadium. The Astros won Games 1, 2, 6 and 7 at Minute Maid Park."

The Astros lost the middle three games of the ALCS at Yankee Stadium?

That's a .000 winning percentage.

Golly, it sounds like the Astros should fight for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs ... it gives them the best chance.


"You know how many of those games Justin Verlander pitched? Two. You know who will get two starts if the thing goes the distance again? Him. The best starting pitcher in the sport and one of the best of his generation."


What if Verlander is back home watching Cleveland vs. Oakland in the ALCS?


"What this really means is that the playoffs have started already for the Yankees. They need to treat the rest of the regular season like a pennant race out of the past, them against the Astros for best record, all the way down the stretch."



They're not going to go full throttle the next two weeks, that's for sure.

They will try to win every game, I suppose.

But they will also play September callups and rest the starting players ... even give Jordan Montgomery a start.


"Because the best record in the league really might mean everything this time. The Yankees need to grind the rest of the way the way the Mets have been grinding since the All-Star Break."

The Mets?

What do the Mets have to do with the ALCS? Why would the Yankees try to emulate the Mets?


Am I missing something? Were the Mets resting their A-Team in the first half of the season because they were resting  up for the playoffs?


"Incidentally: Winning the East guarantees the Yankees nothing in the first round. If they do end up with the best record, they have to play either the Rays or the Indians or the A’s, who swept the Yankees in Oakland the last time the two teams played. And please know that the Yankees were 3-4 against the A’s this season, 3-4 against the Astros, 3-4 against the Indians, 4-2 against the Twins. The best they have done against any possible playoff team is the Rays, against whom they are 12-5."

What the hell?

You mean to say the Yankees played various teams throughout the 2019 baseball season and won some of those games while also losing some of those games?

Well, I've never seen such profound baseball analysis in my entire life.

It must have come from Elias.


"Starting Tuesday, the schedule smiles on the Yankees: Three against the Angels, three against the Blue Jays, two against the Rays, finally three against the Texas Rangers. If they are going to win the 11 games in October that Reggie Jackson always talks about, they have to kill it in those 11 games."

Yeah.

I sure hope the Yankees "kill it" in October.

That would be awesome.


Now land the dismount, sport:

"Might make all the difference in the world as in, World Series."

Swish!


What we learned is that homefield advantage might make all the difference and winning the AL East guarantees nothing in the first round.

Just grind it out like the Mets and hope for the best.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Jimmy Connors, and Buck Showalter to us all.

There's another word for "almost wins."

I like to call them "losses."

"You think the Mets would like that 11-10 game with the Nationals back?

I sure would."

Yeah, it was a tough loss at a time when people were actually paying close attention to the Mets.

Who are the Mets chasing for the second wild card? As of this morning, they are chasing the Cubs, Brewers, and Phillies.

So let's give the Mets back The Game they Shoulda Won.

What, Pedro Strop never blew a save this season? The Cubs never left bases loaded in the late innings of a close game? If the Mets get a couple of their Shoulda Wons back, they're still three games behind the Cubs, because the Cubs got their Shoulda Wons back, too. These are the rules I just made up in Imaginary League Baseball.

I'll bet the Phillies would have 115 wins this season if they could get credit for all the games they shoulda won.

Great teams don't always win close games. The Astros lost an impossible walkoff to the Orioles in a game where Verlander started. The difference between the Astros and the Mets is the other 161 games.

I think that the way the Yankees have dominated the Red Sox -- and the division -- this season and the way Cashman has the Yanks set up for the immediate future didn’t factor into what just happened to Dombrowski, less than a year from when the Sox won their fourth World Series since 2004.

"And please don’t think that the way the Yankees have dominated the Red Sox -- and the division -- this season and the way Cashman has the Yanks set up for the immediate future didn’t factor into what just happened to Dombrowski, less than a year from when the Sox won their fourth World Series since 2004."

Okay!

Okay!

You changed my mind.

Mike Trout's foot has been bothering him for a month.

Maybe he can get that fixed up soon so he can be a productive player.

The longest nine-inning game in Mets history.

Sometimes, it feels like good hitting.

This felt like a lot of bad pitching.

Let's bring up Jimmy Connors and Jacoby Ellsbury.

No, really.

I'm surprised there isn't a Buck Showalter quote in there somewhere:

"In so many ways, not any of them good ones, there has never been a more amazing free agent in the history of New York City baseball than Jacoby Ellsbury."

The history of New York City baseball covers a lot of bad free agent signings.

Would you pay $138 million for 38 HRs? That's what the Mets did with David Wright. Does that technically not count as a free agent signing because it was a contract extension? OK fine.

Or does David Wright evade ridicule because he was a good guy who gave good clubhouse interviews?

Jason Bay, Mike Witt, Steve Kemp ... ummm ... this is actually not fun, so I will stop. It isn't hard to challenge the notion that Ellsbury was the worst free agent signing in NY baseball history.

He ended up being a bust, largely due to injuries that many people correctly predicted, but he was productive for a few years and contributed to winning teams. Not irreplaceable by any means, but a good player.

"Everybody around seems to have bullpen issues this season, except for the Yankees.

But Mets fans have a right to look at the various calamities produced by Diaz and Familia and then imagine what the standings would look like if both of them hadn’t pitched like tomato cans."

Arguably worse free agent signings than Jacoby Ellsbury right in front of your face.


"And wonder how this season might have played out if they’d signed Zack Britton in the last baseball winter instead of the Yankees."

If.


Yes, the Mets bullpen is bad, but the stats are always misleading.

Using last night's game as an example, Edwin Diaz got the win after he blew the save.

It happens all the time. Teams win games with a blown save or multiple blown saves.


Britton has been pretty good ... but just how many games do you imagine the Mets winning because of the addition of Zack Britton?

90 wins? 95 wins? 100 wins?


The Mets are 4 games over .500 and their victory over Philly last night moved them into a tie for third place in their own division.

The Phillies who didn't give up a walkoff home run; they just walked everybody or hit them with pitches.

"Pete Alonso came into the weekend with 45 homers and 105 RBI.

Bryce Harper came into the weekend with 30 homers and 100 RBI."

This merely proves that Harper isn't as bad as you thought.

People grade on a curve.

When Alonso signs his $350 million contract, then 45/120 won't be good enough anymore.

People think too much.

“Bellinger is a great player, MVP-caliber for sure, but half their team is,” says New York Mets reliever Seth Lugo. “Same thing with the Braves – they have so many really good guys. Not to say the Nationals don’t, but in my opinion, Rendon just stands out more among those guys than other players among their teammates. To me, that’s what a real MVP is.

“If the Dodgers lose Bellinger, they got plenty of guys that can cover. If they lose Rendon, they’re in trouble.”

Trout detractors point out his team isn’t good enough.

Bellinger detractors point out his team is too good.

So the MVP should be on a good-enough team, on the playoff cusp, pushed into the playoffs by their star player. Uh huh.

If Rendon is the best player in 2019, then he’s the MVP. Maybe he is, maybe he isn’t.

If you think he can’t be replaced in this imaginary argument, then I challenge the notion by replacing him with Bellinger. If I do that, then the Nationals might be in first place in their division. Which would make them too good for an MVP.

Something of an immortal?

"If that conversation seems awfully far away for a pitcher who has yet to win his 64th career game, that’s because it is. deGrom, who debuted a month before his 26th birthday, may have started his Major League career a bit too late to make the Hall of Fame realistic.

A second Cy Young Award would make him something of a baseball immortal, regardless."

I think we all know instantly that this isn't true.


"If deGrom can accomplish the feat, it would have implications on things as distant as his Hall of Fame resume, should he pitch well enough into his mid-30s to make that a consideration. Of the 19 pitchers to win multiple Cy Young Awards, 11 of them are in Cooperstown. A 12th, Roger Clemens, would be if not for PED concerns, while two others, Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw, are likely headed to the Hall after they retire."

Which leaves 5 near-immortals who aren't near-immortals.

I phoned the folks at Elias Sports Bureau - they know everything! - and this is the list:

Corey Kluber
Johan Santana
Tim Lincecum (oh, yeah)
Denny McLain (trivia question answer)
Bret Saberhagen

It just sounds funny

Not to make fun of a flabbergasted Nimmo ... it just came out funny:

"When I came in here, I didn't really know what happened, it just seemed like a bad dream,” Nimmo said after the Nationals’ largest ninth-inning rally in their history. “That's hard to do even in a Little League game. To come back from (six) runs down against guys throwing 99 mph, I don’t really have words for that.”

It just sounds funny to me.

The difficulty of Little Leaguers coming back in the ninth inning … against a guy throwing 99 MPH.

What is the distance from the mound to home plate in Little League?

Forty-five feet?

So you're saying the Yankees won't win the World Series.

Let's talk about things that everybody knows:

"Everybody knows this is a home run time in baseball. Everybody can see it’s another home run season, one in which teams will again hit more home runs in a season that at any other time in history."

Unless we're talking about Pete Alonso.


"The Yankees set the team record last season with 267, and they are likely going to fly past that number in September -- even in a season when Giancarlo Stanton, who once hit 59 in a season for the Marlins, has hit just one because of injuries and Aaron Judge, who has gotten hot lately, had just 18 coming into the weekend because of his own injury issues earlier in the year."

No mention of Encarnacion.


"The Yankees have hit more home runs in August alone (70) than any team has hit in a calendar month. They had 250 for the season heading into their weekend series against the A’s, and guess what? That number wasn't even the most in baseball this season, because the Twins had 261."

Twins hoping to ride home run surge to World Series win.


"I called the Elias Sports Bureau on Thursday -- they know everything! -- because I was curious about the correlation between homers and winning a World Series. This is the list I was given:"

You called the Elias Sports Bureau?

That's 5 minutes of research on the Internet.


"Not only are the 2009 Yankees the last to do it, the Astros in '17 were the last team to finish in the Top 5 in homers and win it all."

2009 was only ten years ago.

2017 was only two years ago.


"Nobody would suggest that the number of homers hit by the Twins and Yankees -- who are going to finish first and second in homers in 2019, unless the Dodgers or Astros have the kind of power surge in September that the Yanks just had in August -- are some kind of disqualifier for actually winning the World Series in a home run world."


Nobody except you.

This entire exercise is suggesting that the number of homers hit by the Twins and Yankees are some kind of disqualifier for actually winning the World Series.

If you're not suggesting that, then why did you call Elias Sports Bureau and provide us with a table correlating regular season home run totals to World Series victories?

If it's just rows and columns of random numbers signifying nothing, then you can call the folks at Purina and ask how much dog food was purchased in the cities of ALCS Champions over the past 20 years. You can even run trending analyses and figure out the standard deviation.


"And they're probably going to hit 300 home runs this season.

It’s a pretty amazing number. So are the numbers in our list of World Series winners."

The numbers that don't suggest anything. They're simultaneously amazing and suggestive of nothing.


Say what you mean, coward.

You're saying the Yankees won't win the World Series because they rely too much on the home run and strike out too much.

You're saying you're unimpressed.

You can't wait for Madison Bumgarner to shut 'em down in October.

Well, if that's what you really think, then don't hedge your bet.

If that's not what you really think, then there is no point to any of this.


It's not even a risky proposition.

Only one team is going to win the World Series. It probably won't be the Yankees or the Twins.

It probably won't be the team that hits the most home runs. It also probably won't be the team who wins the most games in the regular season. It probably won't be the team with the best team ERA.

Boston was 8th in team ERA in 2018 ... Houston was 11th in 2017 ... the Cubs were first in 2016, but that was three years ago! ... KC was 10th in 2015 ... San Francisco was 10th in 2014 ...

Not because any of these are bad things for baseball teams to do, but because ten teams make the playoffs and winning the World Series is hard.

You have to play well at the right time and get lucky.


You'll always be able to explain why the championship team won the championship. The winning team probably out-pitched the competition and, in retrospect, the bullpen had hearts of champions and overcame adversity. The vets came through by providing leadership and two or three unheralded heroes "stepped up."

But you won't find regular season team stats that provide much predictive guidance, nor will you easily be able to predict the winner before the playoffs start.

I figured that out all by myself without calling Elias.

Aaron Judge is the best player on the Yankees and one of the best players in MLB.

Lupica just capriciously picks players that he's going to debase every chance he gets, regardless of on-field performance:

"Sometimes you wonder if Aaron Judge, who finally started to pull the ball for home runs during the Yankees’ last road trip, might have crossed himself up, and more than somewhat, by falling in love with that Williamsport-like rightfield wall at the new Stadium."

Of all the criticisms of a player I've ever heard ... the ability to hit opposite-field HRs ... the ability to effectively adjust to the home ball park ... sound the most like compliments.

Put it this way: If Judge wants to hit 73 opposite field HRs in 2020, I'm all for it.


How crossed up is Aaron Judge, anyway?

.280/.387/.514.

55 runs, 42 RBIs, 18 HRs, 15 doubles, 50 walks in approximately half a season.

Some slump.

Throw in his baserunning and fielding and guess what? He's the best player on the Yankees.


He strikes out too much and probably always will

If that really qualifies as "crossed up," then he has been crossed up his whole Rookie of the Year near-MVP All Star career.


By the way?

The advantages "Willamsport-like rightfield wall" at Yankee Stadium goes for Gio Urshela, Luke Voit, Brett Gardner ... and, really, every Yankee HR hitter since Babe Ruth

Difference is, Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle, Yogi, Gamble, Nettles, Winfield, Jeter, Ibanez, Dan Pasqua, and all the others didn't get to play with Steroid Ball.

I am pleased I underestimated Gio Urshela.

Is he the biggest surprise on the Yankees? I guess so.

German is 17-3 and I didn't even knew who he was before the season started.

Tauchman has an .886 OPS and 45 RBIs in half a season ... and ... who is Mike Tauchman?


Some of offensive numbers I don't know what to make of anymore.

Alonso and Bell and Urshela and Alvarez ... they're all doing well against their peers.

I just don't know if we can process the power numbers of 2019 in any kind of historical context.

No matter.

Urshela proved doubters wrong and I was a doubter.

In fact, I still think Andujar has a higher ceiling.


My gripe is not with the content of the article.

My gripe is the Jinx Factor.

Though it didn't work with Urshela the first time ... let's not forget how Lupica wrote off Aaron Judge two weeks ago.

After which Judge basically hit a HR-per-game.

Game-tying run taken off the scoreboard in the ninth inning.

When Tauchman struck out, Boone should have pointed out that the Dodgers never called Time In.

Or at least ask the umps for a Do Over.

Quick, before our parents call us in for dinner … olley olley in come free.

Of course it's not a big deal anymore.

Ask Chris Carter.

The numbers back up the grouchy old men in this case.

I'm not sure why Bob Nightengale feels a need to disparage the activity which indirectly employs him ... (have you ever thought about the actual job of being the baseball columnist for USA Today? ... it must be like being the crossword puzzle editor for Reader's Digest) ... but it's hard to argue with the facts:

"For the 12th consecutive season, hitters are on pace to break the strikeout record with 42,607 – 1,400 more than last year.

This year, 36% of all plate appearances have resulted in a strikeout, homer, walk or hit-by-pitch.

'We’re seeing all kind of guys who can hit home runs,' Rose said, but they can’t hit.'

Of course, that dovetails with the record home run rate this season. Entering Sunday, the league was on pace for 6,823 homers, more than 700 above the record set in 2017."

I also think the modern-day pitcher needs to be cut some slack.

I don't know how Seaver and Carlton would perform these days.

They'd surely be better than, say, Ivan Nova and his six innings per start.

But I'm almost 100% sure they couldn't sail through these lineups in these ballparks with these juiced up baseballs.

Judge has hit .212 over the past 30 games. I love the fans and writers who already think Judge is old news.

If I wanted to, I could do this analysis for any Championship team ever.

I could also do this analysis for every current MLB team.

"Sure, [team] has won [xyz] games, but their team has a flaw that has not been adequately addressed. They recently lost badly to [team] because [player] played poorly. They are relying on [star player] who is in a slump. What will happen in October? Fans of [team] should be worried."

"This was going to be about the Yankees and their starting pitching, and whether they could get their starters through the other team’s batting order at least twice in the postseason before turning the game over to their bullpen."

Twice through the lineup?

Probably.

Not three times through the lineup.


The Yankees want a tie game after five innings, with the presumption that they can win a battle of the bullpens.


"Then the Yankees went with one of those relievers, Chad Green, as an opener in Thursday night’s game against the Indians. Green didn’t make it through the Indians’ order once before giving up a grand slam to Jose Ramirez. The game ended up a 19-5 win for the Indians."

Everything changed because the Yankees lost a game by 14 runs.


"If the Yankees face the Indians in October, whether the Indians are the American League Central champs or an AL Wild Card, they won’t be throwing Green at them in Game 1."

Well, okay.

I can easily think of a scenario where Chad Green starts Game One of a playoff series.

But, whatever.

"Won't" means "probably won't" and I can move on.

I don't know what this is leading to.

I just think Lupica wanted to point out that the Yankees lost a game by 14 runs.


"Now, no one is still quite sure who the Game 1 starter for the Yankees, whether it will be Domingo Germán, this year’s young ace, or the rehabbing Luis Severino, last year’s young ace. Or Masahiro Tanaka. Or James Paxton."

If you're talking about the playoff rotation pecking order, it's Tanaka in Game One and German in Game Two.

Barring injuries and other unforeseen circumstances.


"But what we do know is that starting pitching is going to be an issue for the Yankees come October, even though they are likely going to be coming off a regular season in which they win even more than the 100 games they won last year, and still might end up with the best record in their league, maybe even in the whole sport."

Completely backwards.

It's as if Lupica doesn't actually know that English words have specific meanings.


What we know with reasonable certainty is the starters the Yankees will use in the playoffs.

What we don't know with reasonable certainty is how effective they will be. Or what team(s) they will play.

About the only thing I'd bank on is Paxton giving up runs in the first inning. What a tool that guy is.


"The Yankees didn’t make a deal for a starter at the July 31 Trade Deadline. Rather than make what he considered a bad deal, general manager Brian Cashman made no deal at all. Here is something Cashman said after the Trade Deadline:

'This is a damn good roster and it can compete, we feel, with anybody in the game.’' "

Eh, forget it.

Too much wasted energy discussing the pitchers the Yankees were going to acquire at the trading deadline.


It's as if nobody has noticed that every AL playoff game is going to have double-digit scores and lots of home runs and no starting pitcher can stop it.

Certainly no starting pitcher that was available at the trading deadline.


"The questions about the Yankees’ starting pitching -- especially if they end up against the Astros in the AL Championship Series the way they did two years ago -- will stick to them like a tick until one of their starters throws a gem in October."



The Yankees are going to rely on their bullpen, their fielding, hitting with runner in scoring position.

The same way they got to 100 wins.
 
Of course it will be harder in the playoffs. It's the playoffs.

It's going to be harder for their opponent, too.

Get used to it.

Every rookie is the best rookie ever?

It's getting hard to understand the numbers.

Is 30 HRs and 100 RBIs just mediocre?

Ruth and Gehrig alright.

An extreme example.

John and Suzyn lose their minds when a batter fouls off a lot of pitches:

"We all wish he could have hit one out of the park or something like that, but there are so many positives in that at-bat," McGuire said. "All three of those at-bats were, I guarantee, a lot tougher than Chapman was probably expecting.”

He fouled off a bunch of pitches and then grounded into a double play.

... and he won't be the last.

Q:	Aristides Aquino became the second player in MLB history to record a three-homer game in his first 10 career games. Who was the other player to achieve this feat?
A:	The Phillies' Bobby Estalella (1997)

A record that will probably last until Thursday.

A convoluted partial defense of J.A. Happ.

“Right now it seems like if it can go wrong, it will,” Happ said. “It's frustrating. I'm certainly not feeling sorry for myself, I've got to find a way out of it. I felt like I made a pitch to get out of that fourth, and it didn't happen. Then I didn't make a pitch, and we got hurt there. Every out is huge, and I just wasn't able to close it down.”

No need to highlight your teammate's error, but have any pitchers pointed out what is going on with the ball?

Happ has allowed 29 HRs this season, 3 more last night.

Has any pitcher, in a postgame interview, finally snapped and called BS on this?

Gregorius hit one onto Eutaw Street.

Romine hit one out of Fenway Park.

I heard someone say Alonso is a "low ball hitter" after he golfed a ball 450 feet on an off-balance swing.

Frazier's game-tying HR was legit ... but the upper deck at Citi Field?

It wasn't long ago that distance like that was reserved for Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire.

The ball is juiced. 

They took the game away from pitchers like Happ.

Bo Bichette is the next Ted Williams.

"If that sounds impressive for a rookie, it’s because it is.  Bichette is the first freshman to pick up 12 or more extra-base hits in his first 11 games and the first rookie since Ted Williams in 1939 to collect an extra-base hit in nine straight. He’s also the first player in MLB history—not just rookies, but everyone—with a doubles streak of nine or more games."

Home runs are cheap.

Nothing against Alonso, but something about the WOW coverage of HRs is bugging me.

As every HR record falls, can we please stop being faux-impressed with HR totals? 

Put them in context.

Chop 30% off the inflated number.

Alonso's 36 HRs in 2019 are really 25 HRs. Still a lot for early August, but he's not Darryl Strawberry.

While the profile of Alonso’s high school coach is one of the most edge-of-your-seat fascinating profiles of a high school baseball coach I’ve ever read in my entire life, and Alonso is doing quite well compared with his peers ... Alonso is going to strike out 180 times and is batting .208 with RISP.

He is not in the NL MVP conversation.

At first, it sure seems odd that the Yankees don't call up Frazier.

But Tauchman and Maybin aren't exactly playing like chopped liver, Suzyn.

NOW can Frazier get promoted? For a couple of weeks?

The Eye Test

Something is up.

It's not just the volume of HRs, it's when the backup catcher hits an opposite field 450-foot fly ball.

Bright side; It really frees up October. Maybe I'll learn a new language or something.

You know what the Yankees should have done?

They should have traded Frazier and Bird to the Dodgers for Kershaw, the skinny guy Ferris Buehler or whatever his name is, and the fat Asian guy with the good ERA.

The Dodgers probably need a young outfielder, am I right?

Good career record.

I had been dismissive of Strasburg, maybe because  of all the early hype.

This joke is already tired.

NFL scores occur in MLB every day.

But I thought the other 29 teams were farm teams for the Yankees.

As long as the playoff games aren't in London, you go with what you've got and hope to turn it over to the bullpen in the sixth inning with a lead.

Maybe the fifth inning.

Heck, maybe the fourth inning.

That's the direction baseball is heading, anyway.


Bumgarner is the best SP who the Yankees could conceivably acquire.

Game Three of the ALCS? He won't last 5 innings at Target Field.

The strategy for beating the Twins is simple: Score 15 runs.

44-49 career record.

Kind of makes you appreciate the boring player who's slightly above average for a long time.

Red Sox fan writes about the Red Sox

Lupica writes to the non-existent audience of baseball fans who are counting out the Red Sox:

"The Yankees are playing this season the way the Red Sox played last season. Maybe better, considering what they’ve had to overcome with injuries. They might not win as many games as the Red Sox did last season. But they might come close. Injuries haven’t stopped them, because nothing has."

What?

What are we talking about?

The Yankees have to win 108 games in 2019 because the Red Sox won 108 games in 2018?


"The Red Sox aren’t going to catch the Yankees this season. But they do have a chance to catch the teams ahead of them in the AL Wild Card race -- the Indians, A’s, Rays -- and get another shot at their top rival the way the Yankees got their shot at the Red Sox last October. The team that won everything in 2018 now just looks to win that."

The Red Sox can still win the AL East.

As for "having a chance" to get the second Wild Card ... they're two games out.

With 65 games to go.

So, yeah. It's in the realm of possibility.


" 'You only get only so many chances to win in this game,' Frank Cashen said about his Mets back in 1987, when they were trying to repeat as World Series champs and then didn’t even make the playoffs that year."

The '87 Mets, huh?

Dwight Gooden, Darryl Strawberry, Mookie Wilson, Buck Showalter, Bobby Grich, and Wee Willie Keeler.

"The key to winning baseball games is having a team with good baseball players," Lee Elia once told me in a postgame steam bath on Chicago's south side in 1982.


"There was no Wild Card for the Mets back then, no one-game playoff lifeline. But there is for the Red Sox. Now their fans and everybody else must ask themselves -- after what has so often been a mediocre and disappointing regular season despite the life they’ve shown lately -- if the Sox can get good enough, starting now, to secure the AL Wild Card Game at Fenway."


I believe.

Ya gotta believe.

You convinced me.

Also, if I didn't believe, it would be at my own risk.

Not sure what I'd be risking, but I'd rather not take any chances.


"Can this year’s Red Sox look like last year’s Red Sox two months from now? We’re going to find out. They are four behind the Indians in the loss column, two behind the A’s, one behind the Rays. What feels like a 65-game pennant race for the defending champs starts now. You only get so many chances, Frank Cashen said. The Red Sox still have this chance: Proving that they got counted out too soon."

Nobody counted them out.

Maybe a few drunks dialing WEEI.

Yeah, why is Harold Baines in the Hall of Fame?

"Under the Baines standard, Larry Walker, Fred McGriff, and others would stroll into Cooperstown. There are even more unlikely names that have to be looked at in a new light now. Forget even about never-Hallers like Bobby Abreu (60 rWAR to Baines’ 38), Brett Gardner (40), or Placido Polanco (41.5). And forget about clearly better steroid-era candidates swept up in writers’ desire to pretend performance-enhancing drugs don’t exist — even if players from that era were never tied to PEDs. Andruw Jones, Jeff Kent, Scott Rolen, Lance Berkman, and dozens of others are more deserving."

First guy I thought of was Willie Wilson ... just in terms of the worst player who conceivably had a better career than Baines.

Wilson got 2% of the HOF vote and then instantly fell off the ballot.

Baines never got more than 6.1% of the vote.

Hard to imagine Frazier doing worse ...

Legendary

I think Torres deserved it, but no surprises for the New York teams.

DeGrom's record isn't too good, but, whatever. He's an All Star.

There are, like, 64 All Stars between the 2 leagues ... sas there really any doubt McNeil was going to be an All Star?

Let's check in with Tim Tebow. Is he batting is weight at AAA?

No, he is not.

.147/.230/.203.

That's a .203 slugging percentage.

One home run and 73 strikeouts in 177 at-bats.

Accomplishments matter compared to your contemporaries, of course ...

... but as every home run record falls, bear in mind that the ball is juiced.

The playoffs are a crapshoot.

"We hear a lot now about what a crapshoot the playoffs are in baseball. And there is something to that. Except that the Red Sox have been playing at the same craps table in this century, and won four Series in the last 15 years. The Giants won three Series in this decade."

The Giants leaned quite a bit on one superstar pitcher.

But, besides the uniform, what does the 2004 Red Sox team have in common with the 2018 Red Sox team?

Nothing.

They have nothing in common.

There is no reason to link the different Championship Red Sox teams in terms of strategy, roster, coaching, managing.

Other than the simple observation that, like, it often pays off to spend a lot of money on payroll. The Red Sox have enough money to survive some of the worst free agent signings in baseball history. Small payroll teams can't do that.

Believe it or not, there is really no reason to think the Red Sox have been smarter than the Yankees the past 15 years. They just came through more often in the playoffs.


"Since the Red Sox started their own winning in ’04, they’ve won the Series with three general managers, three managers, two team presidents."

Exactly.

In other words, it's a crapshoot.

Lots of Jose Devers fans out there in Yankee Universe?

Lupica's back at the Daily News just in time to put pressure on the Yankees to win the World Series.

Because if they don't win the World Series this year, then they'll endure even more ridicule from Mike Lupica next year.


He's back at the Daily News and just as out of touch as ever.

I'm not making this up: A Buck Showalter reference, a Phil Jackson reference, a shot at long-forgotten ARod, and ... get this ... even a gratuitous shot at Jacoby Ellsbury.

Get some new material, for cryin' out loud.


As for a brief mention of current players on current New York teams that are currently playing, he is predictably off the mark:

"How do you think the polling would go among Yankee fans if they got a do-over on the Stanton trade?"

Well, the Yankees traded Starlin Castro, Jose Devers, and Jorge Guzman for Stanton.

I'm not sure how the poll would go.

Smart fans would endorse the trade. Yankee fans, however, are not smart. Baseball columnists who write about the Yankees also are not smart.

So maybe a better question is, "How many professional sports columnists can name the players who the Yankees traded for Stanton?"

Or "How many professional sports columnists can name the Yankee starting rotation?"

Or "How many professional sports columnists are so ignorant of baseball, that they think Encarnacion strikes out a lot?"