So far tonight, Rodon has allowed one home run, one walk, one wild pitch, one balk, five stolen bases, and four earned runs.
In two innings.
He has allowed nine home runs in 27 "first innings."
If one thing goes wrong in the first inning of a playoff start, he will melt down. If he melts down, the Yankees will not win the game. If they don't win the game, they probably don't win the series.
RISP
2024: 19-for-97, .196.
Career: 42-for-210, .200.
Two outs, RISP
2024: 13-for-62, .210.
Career: 21-for-117, .179.
I remember being a detractor of this guy for the first three seasons. Rightfully so, if you look at his first three seasons.
Rockies' third inning:
They might win the World Series, and that would be fine, but they should be dominant.
"Confidence was high after 2017, and even after 2019, but since after the Wild Card clunker in ’21, the Houston sweep in ’22, and last year’s October off, it seems like falling short is all the Yankees ever do."
Yeah, it's all they do.
" 'Their record says the Yankees have the most wins in baseball, but I don't care what their record says – no team in baseball is on pace for 100 wins, so all the Yankees are is one of a bunch of teams that can win the World Series just because the odds are you're in the postseason, so you have a chance to win a World Series…not because they're built to be a World Series team. Big difference.' "
I'm not sure what planet you've been living on the past 25 years.
The Yankees are a successful marketing campaign, basically, living off past glory.
In that sense, they remind me of New York City in general and WFAN as well, come to think of it.
Sal:Mad Dog::Rizzo:Gehrig.
Enjoy the magic of Soto and Judge and that's it. They will probably lose in the playoffs, but from a fan's perspective, I'm enjoying this duo performing at tip top level on the same team in the same season.
“Man, he’s blown 10 saves,” Boomer said. “Think about where they would be if he just did his job half the time.”
I think Mr. Genius means "done his job" half the time in the games with blown saves. Which would mean five blown saves instead of ten. "Doing his job half the time" ignores the 26 successful saves.
I'm not delusional enough to think Holmes is an elite closer. There aren't many elite closers. If there were, then the word would lose its meaning. But he's been good all season, with a small number of horrible outings.
I mean, it takes two minutes to look this up on the Internet.
The Yankees have won three of the games in which Holmes has blown the save.
In four of Holmes's ten blown saves, he has allowed zero earned runs. That's one of my favorite stats, actually.
Bad defense; grounding into double plays; never throwing out opposing base stealers; pitchers all over the place who walk too many batters at inopportune times and also hit them with a lot of pitches at inopportune times; inability to hit situationally or hit with RISP.
Do any of these problems sound familiar?
Doesn't anyone watch the games?
Doesn't anyone remember this gem where lizard-brained commenters put the blame on Holmes because he didn't just strike out all the batters?
The general consensus is that Holmes will blow a save in the playoffs and this will cost the Yankees a trip to the World Series.
I say the Yankees get swept in a three-game series in which they score a grand total of five runs, allow seven unearned runs, and bat 1-for-24 with RISP. Holmes has an ERA of 0.00 while pitching one inning in a Game Three loss. Boone decides to use Holmes in a non-save situation because, when your team is shutout, there ain't no save situation.
I can even describe in great detail the first inning of any playoff game started by Stroman, Rodon, or Cortes. The first two outs will come easily. Then an 0-2 count on the third batter becomes a 12-pitch full count foul-ball-fest until the batter walks. Then a stolen base with a throw into centerfield. Followed by a wild pitch. So it's 1-0. But now pitcher is flustered. A HBP, an error on a pickoff throw, an error by Gleyber or Volpe scores run #2. Then a walk, walk, walk, walk, grand slam. It is 8-0 and Suzyn is explaining how it is frustrating because he was one pitch away from getting out of the inning. Also, there is some action in the Yankee bullpen by this point.
What Boomer is imagining is five more wins for the Yankees. I guess. I am applying logic to illogical and ignorant observations.
So where would the Yankees be if Holmes had done his job half the time? Five more wins. That was easy math. Ten divided by two is five last time I checked. Then the Yankees are in first place by five games instead of tied for first place. That's how things work!
But that silly analysis requires imagining a closer with a 100% save percentage and a shortstop who can field ground balls in the ninth inning.
If this rule is implemented, then the pitcher just has to walk the batter on four pitches and claim it was not intentional.
200+ career at-bats with RISP and a batting average of .200.
110+ at-bats with two outs and RISP and a batting average of .180.
Also, what's with all the strike outs? With RISP, can you please focus on putting the ball in play? Do you think you're going to hit a grand slam?
Alternate title: "It's a nice problem to have":
“Every home run this guy hits…the price goes up. Honestly, he’s pricing himself out of the Yankees,” Sal said. “They know this is gonna be a ridiculous price. I’m not sure they would go to those extents.”
I just read that two times to be sure, and I must conclude that Sal Licata doesn't know what the word "honestly" means.
The Rangers are a mediocre team that won the World Series. They're right in front of you and they strongly support the argument that the baseball postseason is a crapshoot:
"I love it when I still hear about what a 'crapshoot' the postseason is in baseball."
It is.
"What, it wasn't a crapshoot when Mr. Torre's Yankees were winning four World Series in five years and nearly making it five out of six?"
It was a crapshoot. Ask the superior Braves in 1996. Or the inferior Diamondbacks in 2001. Or the inferior Marlins in 2003.
Not sure why he stopped at five out of six when it was "nearly" six out of eight.
The "nearly" part kind of contradicts his entire argument, if you think about it.
It's excruciating, isn't it?
"Nearly" winning is the same thing as "losing," and it's cut and dried, it's all or nothing, it's binary.
It's a bloop single into centerfield, it's non-HOFer Graeme Lloyd getting HOFer Fred McGriff to ground into a double play. You put your best team out there and hopefully they'll play with poise and skill. But you just never know what is going to happen.
Kind of like every time a roll of the dice craps out it was "nearly" a winner. Which is why it's a good analogy.
"That is still the biggest and best reason why Torre is the greatest Yankee manager of them all, even if others won more World Series than he did."
To the victors go the spoils. Only a fool would ignore the fact that luck plays a part in it.
The earlier Yankee dynasties didn't have to deal with multiple playoff rounds, did they?
The Torre era didn't have to deal with three wild card teams in each league.
Each round of the playoffs is just Bayesian Logic writ large in the sporting world.
Conclusion? Yeah ... it's a crapshoot.
They have lost seventeen in a row and it barely even makes the news.
I mean, when I heard the first name with the last name, I was able to identify who he was. "That guy."
But when I first heard the Yankees got "Chisolm," I wasn't sure who they were talking about.
It's kind of the inevitable result of the trade deadline deals every year.
"Once again" going after a big name, he says. Because the Yankees are constantly landing superstars at the trade deadline. Because Benintendi is also a big name, or something?
I mean, it's been a while. Cone in 1995, Justice in 2000 ... anybody else in the past 24 years who is worth mentioning?
Glenallen Hill? That's like a Chisolm-level "big name." A guy whose jersey is ranked in the top 200 at MLB.com.
I'm probably missing somebody. I know a lot of relievers come and go. Armando Benitez that one time and maybe a few others I don't remember.
But the trade deadline overall is a bunch of hype with minimal impact.
Thirteen errors and a defensive WAR of -0.1 ... which seems like a generous defensive WAR to my eyes.
I'll admit this guy was under my radar.
Just be wary of a player who has a dominating half a season; A guy who walks five players per nine innings.
I know Yankee fans are envisioning a five-K bailout performance in Fenway last night, but you might get a walk, walk, HBP, wild pitch Dellin Betances Special. Throw in a Volpe error and a Gleyber botched double play you've got my vision of a Yankee playoff game.
Also, it's quite a hilarious situation when an average old bullpen guy finds a dominant stretch for 40 innings and millions of sports radio callers around the nation assume he's going to join their team and save their team:
"According to Jon Heyman, several teams are in pursuit of Scott: The New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks, and the Mariners."
You know what?
I'm not even being cynical.
Go ahead and get this guy and make him the new closer.
If Holmes is really a horrible pitcher, then the Yankees will still be vulnerable in the 7th and 8th innings.
There simply is no formula for success in the playoffs. If the Marlins want our entire starting infield for a reliever rental, I'd make that trade today.
But why would the Marlins want to buy anything the Yankees are selling?
Volpe is cut a lot of slack because he's young and likable.
His career stats:
If he's not a choker, he'll do until the choker gets here.
Because he's young, there is a lot of room for improvement and it's likely he will improve.
But if you look around this touted infield, it's total garbage. The Yankees would probably be better off with some of their castoffs. IKF, Refsnyder, Voit, and Urshela come to mind.
The wild card kind of ruins everything, if you ask me.
If you made me choose right now, I'd pick the Guardians and the Dodgers in the World Series.
These analyses don't even mean anything: "Can the Mets beat the Phillies in a short series?"
Of course they can. The Rockies beat the Red Sox by 13 runs last night. The A's could beat the Phillies in a short series.
The Mets will probably make the playoffs. That's all you need. The Padres might knock off the Phillies and the Mets won't need to.
Put it this way, and this should be obvious: It's easier to win the World Series than it is to catch the Phillies.
I'd be impressed if they caught the Phillies.
MLB should get rid of the wild card and force the Mets to get serious and make some aggressive moves.