Friday, July 14, 2006

Alex Rodriguez is Overpaid.

Get over it.

Acknowledge and move on.


I don't know why Tom Hicks paid ARod $25 million per year when he could have paid him $20 million per year.

Tom Hicks broke the market with that contract. No contract since has even come close.

I think Hicks was trying to rejuvenate baseball in Texas and he thought ARod Mania would increase the value of his nearby real estate.

I don't know why and I don't really care. Tom Hicks's lack of contract negotiaton skill does not hamper my ability to observe what happens on a baseball field.

Tihs contract was signed five and a half years ago.

Why are so many people still continually obsessed with this contract? Why do I read about this contract almost every single day in the sports pages? Why not talk about something more current, like Sarah Hughes battling Michelle Kwan for the gold medal?

It was shocking at the time. Now you've had five and a half years to absorb the shock. Now it's old news.


Besides being boring and misleading, there are other problems with Kieran Darcy's analysis:

I. It's rigged
.

"David Wright makes $400,000 compared to ARod's $25,000,000."

Well, duh.

David Wright is not a free agent yet. Funny how all the young players make less money than the veterans. Because of this free agency rule, just about every young player is automatically a better value than just about every veteran.

When David Wright signs his $20-mill-per-annum contract, is Kieran Darcy going to expect him to hit 2,000 homeruns per season so he can maintain his relative value?


You know what I'm going to enjoy? I'm going to enjoy when David Wright sits down for his first contract negotiation.

Met fans everywhere proclaiming that their third baseman is better than Alex Rodriguez. Until it's time to pay him.

"You want $27.5 million per year? You've never even hit 40 homeruns, won a batting title, or stolen 40 bases! ARod goes 40-120 every year with 120 runs scored, too! You've came close in 2006, but that is only one time. Who hasn't done it once or twice? Oh, and can we get a $500k discount for every error? Jeez, Louise. Ty Wiggington had a better glove."


II. The Talent Pyramid.

There is nothing more expensive than a $1,000 car.

Yeah, yeah, I know ARod has had a subpar first half of 2006.

But the reason you pay for once-in-a-lifetime talent is because it only comes along once in a lifetime.

The statistical analysis of baseball players should not be linear. It's more like a bell curve or a pyramid.

Standard deviations? ANOVA? The Law of Diminishing Returns? Anybody know what that stuff is?

With ARod you've got a five-tool player who averages ... well, I don't need to go through this again.

ARod is one of the elite players of all time. The reason you pay a premium for this type of talent is because it is exceedingly rare and difficult to replace.

There are so many overpaid players who signed bloated contracts based on one or two good seasons. It's dopey to focus on a player who has consistently delivered.


III. For The Last Time...

The Yankees pay ARod $16 million, not $25 million.

Which means the Rangers pay ARod $9 million for 0 hits, 0 homeruns, 0 runs scored, and 0 runs batted in.

Again, I don't know what Tom Hicks was thinking.

But this contract fact is vital to this exact discussion. Elimination of this fact is misleading at best.

We're specifically discussing whether or not Cashman should have made this deal. The proposition is that ARod's $25 million salary makes him the worst bargain in baseball. Everyone who reads this article is forced to believe that the Yankees are paying $25 million for .282 ba and 65 rbis.

They're not. They're paying $16 million.

$16 million may still be too much for ARod's 2006 production, but it absolutely changes the parameters of the discussion.

Cashman paid $16 million for the AL MVP.

In two and a half seasons, Cashman's investment has returned over 100 homeruns and over 300 rbis.

If Kieran Darcy was expecting much more than that, then he simply does not understand the physical limitations of the human body.

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