Monday, March 19, 2007

The Follow-Up Nobody Dares Ask.

"I know a lot of you are ready to throw Mientkiewicz under the bus. But give him a shot. You won’t see it in the box score but A-Rod threw wildly in the first inning and Mientkiewicz came off the bag to get the ball and swiped a tag on Lyle Overbay as he went by.

Minky will do that two or three times a series and there’s value in that."

Numbers are specific. The use of specific numbers invites scrutiny. It's a problem when you're really trying to convey vague information.

"Two or three times a series" can mean a lot of things.

The difference between two and three is 50%. Which is a lot of variance, depending on the context.

"A series" probably means three games. Or four. Less commonly, two games, or five games.


I'm going to average it out. The average of 2 and 3 is 2.5. The average length of a series is 3.5 games. Not so much the average, probably, but the median.

Using 2.5 saved errors for every 3.5 games, Abraham is suggesting that Doug M. will save 116 errors by Yankee infielders this year.

The absurdity of this observation is immediately obvious. The Yankee infielders wouldn't make that many throwing errors this season if Jorge Posada had to cover first base on every play.

But the scenario which Abraham is describing isn't even just saving 116 errors, it's supposedly saving 116 errors that other first baseman -- say, Andy Phillips, Jason Giambi, Shea Hillenbrand, Craig Wilson -- pick any old first baseman who could hit over .100 -- would not have been able to save. Jason Giambi is a statue, but even Jason Giambi can occasionally catch baseballs and tag runners as they run by.


This isn't even that difficult to figure out. All you have to do is watch the games.

Count the number of times a thrown ball evades Andy Phillips. An error that Mintkayvitch probably would have turned into an out. The "probably" is subjective, but you can still count "potential errors." It could be an entirely new stat category.

Over the course of the season? This will occur maybe 10 or 12 times. Nowhere near "two or three times a series."

If Doug Mintkayvitch could really turn 116 baserunners into outs, then he'd probably be the best player in baseball.

Which he is not.


"Here’s what Joe Torre said about it:

'Is it more beneficial to help your pitching staff and be more defensive oriented? Certainly if [we] don’t score runs we can’t sit here and blame Mientkiewicz. That’s my whole thought process. Not when you have a second baseman like we have, a shortstop like we have and the production that the center fielder puts out plus a catcher. You’re stealing from some positions that are defensive positions.' "


I don't know if it's more beneficial to help your pitching staff and be more defensive oriented. That would be a good question for the manager of the Yankees.

If you find the manager of the Yankees, you can tell him that, if the Yankees don't score runs, and Mintkayvitch hits .002 with runners in scoring position, then he can partially blame Mintkayvitch.

But the obvious, important, nagging follow-up question would go something like this: "Then why the heck did Gary Sheffield play first base in the playoffs last year?"

One more follow-up Mr. Torre: "Does green tea cause disintegration of the frontal lobe? Because I'm running out of alternate explanations."

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Wow, this is great. Thanks again for sending people to my blog. Every page hit counts.

Anonymous said...

Also, just so you know, it's "Mientkiewicz"

Darren Felzenberg said...

If Mintkayvitch hits .280, I'll learn how to spell his name. Until then, he gets the phonetic version. Also, I refuse to refer to a grown man as "Minky."

Do you like Torre's nickname for Karstens? I think it's "Karst." That is cool, isn't it? "Karst."

In contrast, Torre can not think of a cool nickname for Igawa. This is probably why "Karst" has the inside track for the #5 starter.

Paulie, Minky, Scotty, Georgie ...

What can Torre possibly call Kei Igawa? Kei-y? Iggy?

Torre will give some story about Igawa's inabilty to find the strike zone or that Igawa doesn't look "comfortable." But I will know the awful truth. Torre just can't think of a cool nickname for Igawa.