Sunday, December 02, 2007

Like Pedro Martinez.

"The Yankees have already spent $400 million the past few weeks and you know what that means, right?

They're ready to spend more!

They're ready to break the bank for Johan Santana and thereby go against all the data on signing starting pitchers to longterm deals."


Just to be clear, that $400 million pays for a combined 16 seasons of baseball by three different players, two of whom are going to the HOF and one of whom makes a pretty decent case for the HOF.

Use the mathematical concept of "average" and the economic concept of "future value of money," and I think you'll find the Yankees paid the 2007 equivalent of 25 Roger Clemens strikeouts.


Over the past three seasons, the Mets have paid Pedro Martinez an average of $13 million for an average of 9 wins.

Ask Mike Lupica, and he'll tell you that Pedro is the baseball equivalent of Moses leading the Mets to their current status as (ahem) the Kings of New York City.

(Speaking of the George Mitchell report, hasn't Lupica noticed the peculiar swelling of Pedro's head over the past ten years?)

Pedro was worth every penny, and if you don't understand why, then you've never been at the pink-and-grime colored walls near Gate D, waiting for the #7 Train, cannoli in one hand and warm Bud Light in the other.

It's about Hope and Pride and dem straphangers.

Yankee fans are eating caviar and hiring people to shovel their driveways.


I don't really think the Twins will trade Santana until July. See if they're out of the race and wait to drive up the price.

The Yankees may part with one of their young pitchers, but they'll be getting a young pitcher in return. Yes, Santana will likely get injured at some point, just like Hughes will likely get injured at some point. They all get injured at some point.

The high rate of injury amongst MLB pitchers also explains why Cashman will likely take a different approach, stockpiling his starting staff with young, cheap, effective arms.

But the reason you trade Hughes for Santana is because Santana has already accomplished what Hughes can only hope to accomplish.

It's the difference between potential and realized potential.

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