Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Ignorance is fun.

You know what drives people crazy? It's not the spectre of subjectivity and it's not the debating.

It's the inconsistency:

"The whole thing is completely subjective and debatable, which drives statistical analysts crazy, but makes baseball fun."

Well, it's not completely subjective.

Every candidate's case is firmly grounded in statistical analysis.

If it was completely subjective, then Kevin Reese might win the AL MVP simply because his name sorta sounds like former Attorney General Edwin Meese.


"Morneau won because he batted a major-league best .362 after June 7, when the Twins went a major-league best 71-33."


Those are statistics.

You are analyzing them.

That's crazy.


"But then why did most of the Twins endorse Morneau? Simple: They believed that his importance to the team transcended his numbers — which, by the way, were pretty darned impressive.

There's something to that, no matter how many times analysts cite VORP and runs created and all the other newfangled statistics that point to Mauer or Jeter as more deserving MVPs."

No, no, no.

That's bad, bad, bad.

You're admitting that the sportswriters voted for Morneau just because his teammates liked Morneau more than they liked Mauer.

Stop doing it.

Stop asking the players their opinion. This is absolutely the worst way to determine the MVP.

What if most of the Yankees think Chien-Ming Wang should have won the Cy Young? Or Mariano Rivera? Or Scott Proctor?

Are you going to vote for Scott Proctor because Aaron Guiel says Proctor is an inspiration to the rest of the team?


"For those who must know, the Indians' Travis Hafner led the AL in runs created per game last season. Terrific. He also was a designated hitter who appeared in only 129 games for a team that finished fourth in a five-team division. Runs created per game doesn't tell you that, does it?"

Who led the AL in runs created per game? I Must Know.

Even if this particular statistic does not tell me how many games he played or his team's position in the standings. I Must Know Who Led the AL in Runs Created Per Game.


Actually, no stat tells you games played or the team's position in the standings.

Batting average, slugging percentage, errors, stolen bases, runs batted in, OBP, VORP, WHIP, or any other stat.

The only stats that tells you the number of games played is the games played stat The only stat that tells you a team's position in the standings is the standings stat.

The idea is to take all the information you can gather -- honest-to-goodness so-called objective stats and also intangible attributes -- and then you prioritize the data, weigh the data, and analyze the data.

Runs create per game is simply one more piece of information. I don't think anybody claimed that Hafner was MVP of the AL simply because he led the league in one stat.

But, you know, now that you mention it, he might have won the award if he had not gotten hurt. Hafner is a one-dimensional player who can rake and whose team didn't make the playoffs -- kind of like Ryan Howard.


"For the 1,653rd time, the award is not for best stats, not for best hitter, not for player of the year; it's for MVP, however that is defined by voters in a given year."

How about defindng MVP simply as "most valuable player?"

Do you really think Justin Morneau was the most valuable player in the American League in 2006? Because I don't. Even if the Twins players said so.


"As for the AL, it's downright amusing to hear statistical analysts rally to the defense of Jeter, a player they've trashed for years, screeching that his defense was overrated. That's true to an extent, but for heaven's sake, watch the games. Jeter's value is almost immeasurable."

Ken Rosenthal's propensity for hyperbole is almost immeasurable.

But, there you go.

If a player's value is immeasurable, if you can only divine this value by watching the games or maybe asking his teammates, then you no longer have to defend your case with common sense and logic.

You end up with the fourth-best player on the Twins as the MVP of the entire AL.

2006 AL MVP.

I'm quite proud of my friends simply because they downgraded Justin Morneau vis a vis the opinion of the baseball writers.

Still not quite sure why Morneau's status was elevated above other sluggers like Ortiz, Hafner, Konerko, etc., and I'm truly baffled why Morneau's status was elevated above the catcher on his own team.

Ditto for Frank Thomas. Frank Thomas was the fourth-most valuable player in the American League? Thomas is a DH who hit .270 and scored 77 runs. He only played in 137 games.

Paul Konkerko, as an example, exceeded Thomas in every single offensive statistic, even stolen bases (1 to 0). Konerko ended up with 3 MVP points compared to Thomas's 174. I have no explanation for this occurrence.

In any case, the voting comparison is below.

A few of my friends just boycotted the NL ... which makes me even more proud of them.


Baseball Writers
Felz & His Friends
Justin Morneau
320Derek Jeter
29
Derek Jeter
306David Ortiz
13
David Ortiz
193Joe Mauer
10
Frank Thomas
174Justin Morneau
10
Jermaine Dye
156Jermaine Dye
8
Joe Mauer
116Johan Santana
4
Johan Santana
114Aex Rodriguez
1
Travis Hafner
64

Vladimir Guerrero
46
Carlos Guillen
34
Grady Sizemore
24
Carlos Delgado23
Jim Thome
17
Alex Rodriguez
13
Jason Giambi
9
Johnny Damon
7
Justin Verlander
7
Ichiro Suzuki
7
Joe Nathan
6
Manny Ramirez
6
Miguel Tejada
5
Raul Ibanez
4
Robinson Cano
3

Paul Konerko
3
Magglio Ordonez
3
Vernon Wells
3
Carl Crawford
2
Mariano Rivera
2
Kenny Rogers
2
Chien-Ming Wang
2
Troy Glaus
1
Gary Matthews Jr.
1
A.J. Pierzynski
1
Michael Young
1

I really don't understand why Morneau won ...

... but it had nothing to do with Alex Rodriguez.


I understand Sherman's point regarding Jeter's lack of leadership and I don't disagree.

But please remember that MVP voting occurs before the postseason even starts.

Even after Game One of the ALDS, Jeter was still 5-for-5 Cap'n Courageous and the Yankees were Murderer's Row & Robinson Cano.

A lot changes in three games.

The Yankees fell asleep against Detroit, ARod batted sixth and then eighth, clubhouse discord spilled out onto the field, and the leadership abilities of Torre and Jeter were called into question.

But the MVP votes didn't change one bit. The MVP votes were already locked up.


Also, second place in MVP voting is not a snub.

Jorge Posada was snubbed. Paul Konerko was snubbed. I'd say Miguel Tejada and Jimmy Rollins were snubbed relative to other players in their league at the same positions.

Derek Jeter came in second in the whole league.

It's an honor, not a snub.

Monday, November 20, 2006

2006 NL MVP.

Baseball WritersFelz & His Friends
Ryan Howard388Ryan Howard20
Albert Pujols347Albert Pujols18
Lance Berkman230Carlos Beltran10
Carlos Beltran211Lance Berkman5
Miguel Cabrera170Barry Bonds2
Alfonso Soriano106Miguel Cabrera2
Jose Reyes98Alfonso Soriano1
Chase Utley98David Wright1
David Wright70
Trevor Hoffman46
Andruw Jones29
Carlos Delgado23
Nomar Garciaparra18
Rafael Furcal10
Garrett Atkins10
Matt Holliday10
Aramis Ramirez5
Freddy Sanchez5
Chris Carpenter4
Chipper Jones3
Mike Cameron2
Jimmy Rollins2
Bronson Arroyo1
Jason Bay1

Saturday, November 18, 2006

You'd better not let Joe Mauer beat you. Because he can.

"During the past 10 years, the Most Valuable Player award has gone to two admitted steroid users (Ken Caminiti and Jason Giambi), two strongly suspected (wink, wink) steroid users (Sammy Sosa and some guy in San Francisco) and one guy, Pudge Rodriguez, who has shrunk more drastically in the past two years than Lindsay Lohan.

If you can give baseball's most prestigious honor to Barry Bonds six times and to Alex Rodriguez twice, don't you think it's about time the academy showed some love for Derek Jeter?"

What the hell is this guy's problem with Alex Rodriguez?

Why is he lumping Alex Rodriguez in with steroid users and cheaters?

That's truly disgusting and offensive.


"I know, the MVP is not supposed to be a lifetime achievement award, but it's not supposed to be a stats competition, either."

Of course it's a stats competition.


"Unfortunately, as baseball fell deeper and deeper into its drug-fueled love affair with the long ball, so too have the MVP voters."

Do we have to go through this again?

Pick a decade, pick any decade. Peruse the history of MVP winners. It's very easy to find on the Interweb. Even Hal Bodley could probably find it.

While homeruns are not the only statistic that matters, they're historically pretty damned important in MVP voting. It's just incredibly ignorant to suggest that the nation's love affair with the homerun is some sort of recent phenomenon.


"You can say what you want about Jeter, that he's too smug, that he's protected in a great lineup, that he's a bad teammate for not cradling poor widdle A-Rod to his bosom -- it's all hogwash, by the way -- but even the most fervent Jeter-haters out there would have to concede that not only does he play hard and play well every time out, he also plays clean."

Okay, fine. Derek Jeter plays clean.

David Ortiz doesn't play clean? Joe Mauer doesn't play clean? Justin Morneau doesn't play clean? Travis Hafner doesn't play clean? Johan Santana doesn't play clean? Poor widdle Alex Rodriguez doesn't play clean?


"Plus, more than any of his teammates, he sets the tone for what opponents have come to expect from the Yankees."


A first-round exit in the playoffs?


"The perception that the Yankees never quit, that the Yankees play smart baseball, that the Yankees will find any way to beat you, all come from Derek Jeter. He doesn't represent the Yankees so much as the Yankees represent him."

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present, for your consideration, Wallace Matthews: A New York City sportswriter who missed the entire 2006 American League Divisional Series.


"Granted, those are tickets to Cooperstown, not the MVP award, but if we are going to reward numbers, artificially enhanced or not, then for once, why not reward 'intangibles,' the qualities that can't be juiced?"

Even if I was convinced that "intangibles" should be rewarded (why is "intangibles" in quotation marks? "Intangibles" is regular ol' English word, is it not?), I'd still have to be convinced that Jeter provided more intangibles than his AL MVP competitors.


"This season, it was those qualities in Jeter that kept the Yankees ahead of the AL East when they had every excuse to pack it in early."

You know, the injury-riddled Yankees still had Jeter, Damon, ARod, Posada, Rivera, Wang, Abreu and well over $100 million on the field every night ... in other words, they had absolutely no excuse to pack it in early.


"Despite what A-Rod told Esquire, I have yet to hear anyone in baseball say, 'We better not let Joe Mauer beat us.' I have heard plenty say it about Jeter."


Matthews never heard anyone in baseball say, "We better not let Joe Mauer beat us."

Wow.

Maybe that's why Joe Mauer beat so many people in baseball.

Or maybe Wallace Matthews doesn't know too many people in baseball.

Or maybe people in baseball are just really, really, really, really stupid.

If I was a baseball person? I'd be aware of the catcher who batted .347 with a good eye and decent power.

Then, right before I played the Twins, I'd say, "We better not Joe Mauer beat us."

Hal Bodley wires in another baseball column.

"There's so much money in the sport these days — it took in $5.2 billion in 2006 — I'm not sure my computer has enough dollar signs."

(1) You don't own a computer.

(2) No matter how big the dollar amount, you only need one dollar sign.

Friday, November 17, 2006

Wins divided by payroll.

"Willie Randolph should have won, even if his own payroll with the Mets was nearly $85 million more than Girardi's was with the Marlins."

Mike Lupica is obsessed with money when the Yankees spend it.

Mike Lupica is oddly not so obsessed with money when the Mets (or the Red Sox*) spend it.

(* By the way, in case you weren't familiar with Lupica Math, don't be fooled. The Yankees did not spend $57 million for Randy Johnson. It's just one of those typical Lupica tricks where he conveniently decides what counts as a debit and what counts as a credit. In this case, Lupica is adding Johnson's salary + luxury tax + portions of Javier Vazquez's salary.)

According to Lupica, Steinbrenner and Cashman are greedy villains who are ruining baseball. But Randolph is Manager of the Year and Theo Epstein is the (ahem) "future Boy Prince of Baseball."

Too bad Lupica can't use glue and sparkles to write out Theo Epstein's name. Maybe a little heart to dot the "i."


"The guys who gave Girardi all those first-place votes have a perfect right to their opinion. This is mine."

I checked the Constitution of the United States and, sure enough, the writers who voted for Girardi have a perfect right to their opinion. As long as Mike Lupica grants them that right. It says so right there in the First Amendment:

Mike Lupica shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Mike Lupica for a redress of grievances.


"He just should have won because of the way he won with the Mets, the way his team ran away with things in a year when nobody expected them to do that."


If you say so. I didn't think the Braves would be so bad, but I think just about everybody picked the Mets to win their division.

On the other hand, I don't think anybody expected the Marlins to win more than 55 or 60 games.


"He won big in the NL East in a year when he got nine wins - nine - out of Pedro Martinez, who was supposed to be the ace of his staff again."

Nine. Nine? Nine!

But Randolph also had $eighty five million - $eighty five million - more in payroll, which kind of helps offset the fact the Pedro Martinez only had nine - nine - wins.


I'd also like to point out that Pedro Martinez's 2006 salary was higher than the payroll of the entire Marlins roster. Not that Pedro is an evil free agent mercenary. Only Yankees are evil free agent mercenaries.


"He lost Victor Zambrano early, and whatever you think of Zambrano or thought about him, he was in Willie Randolph's rotation coming out of spring training."

Maybe Randolph's decision to keep Zambrano in the rotation is another reason Randolph did not deserve to be named Manager of the Year.

Because Zambrano wasn't just "in" Willie Randolph's rotation by magic or happenstance or coincidence. In fact, Willie Randolph was one of the key decision-makers in the entire world when it came to determining who was in Willie Randolph's rotation.


"Then he was gone and a kid named Brian Bannister got plugged in and he showed some promise and then Bannister was gone."


I'm convinced. Randolph deserved Manager of the Year because the Mets were actually the only team in baseball whose players suffered through injuries.


"The Mets nearly won 100 games this season and would have won 100 if they had needed to."


Huh?

They would have won 100 if they had needed to?

I guess they didn't really need to win Game Seven vs. St. Louis. But they would have won that game if they had needed to.

Or is Lupica praising the manager of a team and, at the same time, claiming that this team didn't win as many games as they could have?


"Jim Leyland won Manager of the Year for the job he did with the Tigers."


Right, but the Tigers are in the American League and the Mets are in the National League.


"Leyland didn't have nearly the stick on offense that Randolph did. But look at the pitching Leyland had. The Mets didn't have anything close this season."

Right, but the Tigers are in the American League and the Mets are in the National League.


"Even after the votes were in for Manager of the Year, Randolph kept managing his team."

Oh, I see.

That's a dig at Joe Girardi because the Marlins didn't make the playoffs.

The Marlins, with their $85 million disadvantage and their pitching staff of Dontrelle Willis plus the Bingo Long Traveling All-Stars.


"But even when the Mets finally stopped hitting, even when David Wright gave them nothing in the biggest games of the year, Randolph's team stayed in there against the Cardinals, nearly beat them the last two games at Shea, nearly made it to the World Series with John Maine starting Game 6 and Oliver Perez starting Game 7."

Wowza.

The heavily favored 97-win Mets almost beat the 83-win Cardinals.

The Mets almost beat the powerhouse team that had Jeff Weaver and everything!


"Girardi had $85 million less to work with than Willie? There was even more of a gap between Willie and Joe Torre, and people talked about Torre doing the best job he's done in years getting his team to 97 wins."


Okay, let me help Mike Lupica with this concept once again.

Major League Baseball consists of two leagues: The American League and the National League.

When one discusses the National League Manager of the Year, one usually limits the discussion to managers of teams in the National League.


Lupica is simply trying to divert attention away from the Mets/Marlins payroll gap. Lupica can not deal with it. Lupica needs the Mets to be underdogs. Lupica needs Randolph to be the Con Ed kid in the left field bleachers.

Instead of comparing the Mets to the Marlins, Lupica is pointlessly comparing the Mets to the Tigers and Yankees: "The Tigers had better pitching than the Mets. The Yankees spent more money than the Mets."

Yeah, but ... the rest of us were talking about the Marlins, weren't we? The team with the lowest payroll in the major leagues by far?

It should be obvious that, using Lupica's criteria, the Marlins compare even less favorably to their AL counterparts than the Mets do.

Yet, the Marlins managed to compete for a playoff spot for most of the season and almost finished with a .500 record.


Now, let's drill down on this payroll gap. For the sake of this discussion, I'll use payrolls of $15 mill for Florida, $100 mill for the Mets, and $200 mill for the Yankees. Close enough.

The gap between NYM and Florida is $85 mill and the gap between NYY and NYM is $100 mill.

So, technically speaking, the gap between the Yankees and Mets is greater than the gap between the Mets and the Marlins.

But you don't need an economics refresher to understand that Lupica is misreprazentin'. You just need common sense.

The expectations for a $200 million team are high. The expectations for a $100 million team are nearly as high, especially since that $100 million team has the highest payroll in their league.

But what are the expectations for a $15 million team? In a league where the league minimum is $10 million? For a team whose payroll is 1/3rd Tampa Bay's?

I was expecting '62 Mets territory.


Even more to the point, Torre did not win Manager of the Year in the AL. He wasn't even close, despite what "people talked about."

This is beacause voters typically use a simplistic formula when determining Manager of the Year: Wins divided by payroll.

Even if this methodology is flawed, at least it's fairly consistent.

Unless your name is Mike Lupica.

If your name is Mike Lupica, the only mathematical consistency is that the Yankees are Bad and the Mets are Good.

Thursday, November 16, 2006

2006 AL Cy Young.

Baseball WritersFelz & His Friends
Johan Santana140Johan Santana28
Chien-Ming Wang51Chien-Ming Wang17
Roy Halladay48Roy Halladay15
Francisco Rodriguez5Mariano Rivera3
Joe Nathan3Fraincisco Rodriguez3
Kenny Rogers3Joe Nathan2
Justin Verlander2B.J Ryan1
Justin Verlander1
Barry Zito1

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

2006 NL Sigh Yawn.

Baseball WritersFelz & His Friends
Brandon Webb103Brandon Webb17
Trevor Hoffman77Chris Carpenter10
Chris Carpenter63Trevor Hoffman8
Roy Oswalt31Carlos Zambrano8
Carlos Zambrano6Francisco Cordero4
Billy Wagner4Roy Oswalt4
John Smoltz3Billy Wagner4
Takashi Saito1Derek Lowe1
Dontrelle Willis1

Saturday, November 11, 2006

That's "Mr. Leyland" to you, pal.

"I'm happy it didn't drag out," manager Joe Torre said Friday night at a dinner for his foundation. "It just looked like it was getting uncomfortable for both sides."

Oh, no.

Not the dreaded uncomfortable.

I think both Sheffield and Cashman could handle it. They are grown men. Maybe Torre should just be quiet and go back to drinking green tea or whatever it is that he does.


"At least Gary's going back to the manager he won a World Series with and I know that Jimmy thinks very highly of him."

James Richard Leyland is 62 years old.

Have you ever used the nickname "Jimmy" for any person over the age of eleven?


Just when you thought they Mr. Leyland and Mr. Torre were co-presidents of the Mutual Admiration Society, Jimmy takes a not-so-subtle dig at Joey's managerial decisions:

"I have no plans to play him at first base," Leyland said. "It might get on his mind and affect his hitting."

Hmmm ... Sheffield played first base against the Tigers in the playoffs ... Sheffield had only one hit against the Tigers in the playoffs ... hmmm ...

Friday, November 10, 2006

Mission 27 in full effect.

It's just logical, folks:

Step 1: Tigers beat Yankees in the 2006 playoffs with young pitching.

Step 2: Yankee acquire young pitching from the Tigers in 2006 offseason.

Step 3: The team formerly known as the Columbus Clippers wins the 2007 AAA Championship.

Saturday, November 04, 2006

The Moral Watchdogs Shrugged.

Read this quote from the New York Post when Jason Giambi's grand jury testimony was leaked:

"He has disgraced the Yankee pinstripes and made a mockery of everything that is wonderful and good and pure about the game of baseball.

So now it's up to George Steinbrenner. Say what you will about the man, he has only ever put one thing above winning: class. And now Major League Baseball and the fans - indeed, the nation - need to know what class really means."


Then read this.

Friday, November 03, 2006

That wasn't so hard, was it?

Captain Mariano stands up for Alex Rodriguez, Yankee teammate:

"This guy, he's a great player. We're a better team with him. I hear people say we should trade him and I don't agree. I don't think we lost because of Alex. We lost, period. The fans, everybody, they should be with him.''

This simple statement of support will not guarantee that ARod is a Yankee next year.

This simple statement of support will not guarantee that the fans stop booing ARod.

This simple statement of support will probably not improve ARod's on-field performance.

This simple statement of support will not guarantee a Yankee World Series title in 2007.


But when you compare it to the comments by Derek Jeter, ask yourself one question: Who sounds like the true Yankee leader?

Tuesday, October 31, 2006

When somebody says they're not rubbing it in, they're usually rubbing it in.

"Eckstein has now won two rings as a starting shortstop, one in each league. Not to rub it in. [sic] but he and Scott Spiezio are now each up two rings on A-Rod."

Eckstein and Spiezio are now each up two rings on the combined totals for ARod, Ernie Banks, Ty Cobb, Ted Williams, Don Mattingly, Mike Piazza, Vladimir Guerrero, Barry Bonds, Carl Yastrzemski, Garth Iorg, Matt Luke, Peyton Manning, and Charles Barkley.

Andy Fox and Clay Bellinger are now each up only one ring.

Is there a point?

Yes, there is.

The point is ...

Well, there is no point.

Other than to rub it in.

Sunday, October 29, 2006

Peters Abrahams are Jeter's Biggest Fanboys.

"For the first time in his career, Derek Jeter's character has been questioned."

I think Jeter is a phony. Great baseball player, but a phony.

I think Jeter likes to win as much as anybody else, but Jeter also wants to win on his own terms. His antagonistic relationship with ARod has simply revealed a side of his personality that was always there.

Gary Sheffield refuses to play first base and, because of this, lots of people are angry with Gary Sheffield's attitude. Derek Jeter refused to leave his position at shortstop when ARod came to the Yankees (Jeter wasn't asked to leave his position, of course), but this selfish attitude was perceived as the confident swagger required of a premier baseball player.

Why should Jeter have moved from shortstop? Or at least considered it? Simple. To help the New York Yankees win baseball games.


"Some believe he has shirked his duties as captain of the Yankees by not rising to the defense of beleaguered teammate Alex Rodriguez."

Well, duh.

The duties of a captain are not legally binding or explicitly codified, but defending beleaguered teammates seems like Priority One.

Why is this Priority One? Simple. To help the New York Yankees win baseball games.


"Jeter apparently is supposed to make some sort of public show of support for A-Rod."

Yes. Not just for ARod, but for every single Yankee player ever. Every player, coach, manager, scout, ballboy, owner, fan, beer vendor, and guy selling unlicensed merchandise from the back of a van on Jerome Avenue.

Okay, okay. Perhaps I'm being unfair since I just ridiculed Jeter for being a phony and then demanded his 100% number one happy media face. But the treatment of ARod is quite conspicuous due to the lack of support. I think Jeter publicly supported Ruben Rivera more forcefully than he supports ARod.

It's very curious if you read the reactions of Jeter and Torre when they're asked about ARod.

Jeter expects ARod back because ARod has several years left on his contract. Torre expects ARod back because of, well, the no-trade clause for one. Also, ARod is an important piece of the puzzle, I guess, since he's the reigning AL MVP and all.

Once -- just once -- somebody say that ARod is a great ballplayer. That's why you want him on the Yankees. Because you want to win baseball games.

One nanosecond of visible dismay at the notion of ARod being traded away from the Yankees. You want him on the Yankees because he's a great ballplayer and even a great teammate. Or even if he's a lame teammate, you take the high road because you're a great teammate.

But Jeter and Torre won't say anything like that because they don't want to share credit or share blame.

You have four rings without ARod, don't you? ARod will never be able to catch you, will he? He was demoted to number eight in the batting order, wasn't he? It's his fault, wasn't it?


"Theoretically, this would lead to great harmony in the Bronx and the booing would stop."

Well, not exactly, but it couldn't hurt.


"Our question is this: What exactly needs to be fixed? In his three seasons with the Yankees, Rodriguez has hit .299 with an average of 40 homers and 119 RBI per season.

Only four players in baseball have driven in more runs in those three seasons. In games played at Yankee Stadium — in front of those mean fans whom Jeter is supposed to lecture — Rodriguez is hitting .314.

With Rodriguez in the lineup, the Yankees have been either first or second in the majors in scoring and averaged 98 victories a season."


Who is the "our" that is asking this question?

Crass jokes about weight aside, is Peter Abraham a plural?

I'm glad the Abrahams pointed out ARod's success in New York. Maybe they should remind Jeter and Torre next time they see them.


"Rodriguez creates his own problems with self-reverential comments about how good-looking and smart he is. He preens one day and pouts the next, presenting the image of a tortured artist. There are more self-help books in his locker than at the local Barnes & Noble."

What problems? To quote from Peters Abrahams:

In his three seasons with the Yankees, Rodriguez has hit .299 with an average of 40 homers and 119 RBI per season.

Only four players in baseball have driven in more runs in those three seasons. In games played at Yankee Stadium — in front of those mean fans whom Jeter is supposed to lecture — Rodriguez is hitting .314.

With Rodriguez in the lineup, the Yankees have been either first or second in the majors in scoring and averaged 98 victories a season.

Maybe this column really is written by two people: Peter Abraham's split personalities.

Thursday, October 26, 2006

But who's counting?

"It's easier to keep the team together when you're winning," said Jeter, mobbed by reporters after he stepped away from the presentation table. "It's been five years since we've won. I would expect we'll probably make some changes."

1) '01 with the ninth-inning homeruns and the bloop single by the steroid guy.

2) '02 with the Angels.

3) '03 with Jeff Weaver and Josh Beckett.

4) '04 with the Red Sox.

5) '05 with the Angels again.

6) '06 with the Tigers.

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Backhanded Compliments.

"One NL scout said it's an insult to David Eckstein to keep talking about what an overachiever he is. 'He's not an overachiever,' the scout said. 'He's just a very good ballplayer.' "

Dude, don't be insulted.

In 2006, this overachiever had a .344 slugging percentage and 23 whole runs batted in.

Imagine if he'd merely achieved. He might have had negative runs batted in.


"Randolph is likely to get a three-year extension. And why not? He easily outmanaged Joe Torre."

The term "outmanaged" is typically used when one manager's team faces another manager's team head to head.

In the playoffs, Randolph may have outmanaged Little and La Russa. Randolph didn't outmanage Torre, because the Mets never played the Yankees.

But, yeah, I think we can safely assume that Randolph would have outmanaged Torre had their teams met in the World Series.

Give Willie an extension and a raise.

Or maybe Minaya should give the raise and three-year extension to a cardboard cutout of Randolph instead. Because we can similarly safely assume that a cardboard cutout of Willie Randolph would have outmanaged Joe Torre.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Talk Radio

Overheard within a five-minute span on sports talk radio this afternoon:

  1. "Chris Duncan couldn't hit a lefthander if it was a tee-ball game."
  2. Caller: "I think Delgado would have scored on Green's double if it were not for fan interference." Joe Benigno: "But it's a moot point because they both scored on Valentin's double." Caller: "Oh, yeah."

The first time is often the most difficult.

When will a New York City Metropolitan area sports columnist actually openly criticize David Wright?

Dan Graziano takes the plunge:

"Give David Wright credit for one thing. When it was all over, he was right there at his locker, answering questions about where Game 5 went wrong. Got to give him credit for that.

But that's it."

The best part is that Wright was 1-for-4 with a "close-and-late" eighth inning double that almost saved the game (and the season?!) for the New York Mets.

But once you break the seal, there's no turning back.

If the Mets lose tonight and Wright pulls an o-fer ... well ... then the Mets might have to trade Wright to the Cubs.

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Imagine if he had two hits.

David Wright is looking at his slump the "wright" way.

David Wright is back on track.

David Wright has broken out of his doldrums.

David Wright has an airplane named after him.

At the risk of jinxing the Cardinals with a ninth-inning grand slam, I think it's appropriate to point out that David Wright has one hit in sixteen at-bats in the National League Championship Series.

Sunday, October 15, 2006

The best .000 hitter in playoff history.

The continued wonders of small sample size:

"Just think, for a minute, what would be going on right now in New York if that other third baseman were 0-for-9 in an LCS and his team was trailing. Just think what we'd be saying about Alex Rodriguez if he were rattling off clichés like those Wright was spinning when this one was over.

David Wright doesn't get ripped the way Alex Rodriguez does, and he shouldn't."


Imagine my shock and delight when Dan Graziano (1) noticed that David Wright has been a bust in the playoffs so far and (2) Alex Rodriguez shouldn't get ripped the way he gets ripped.


"He doesn't have nearly as much experience. He makes approximately $25 million less per year. He doesn't walk around alienating everybody by talking about how bright he is."


Oh.

The "he" who shouldn't get ripped is David Wright.

I forgot: David Wright makes less money than Alex Rodriguez, is less experienced than Alex Rodriguez (which is good?), and doesn't walk around alienating everybody like Alex Rodriguez does.

Ed Coleman also is on record claiming he wishes he had a son like David Wright.

The fans want Wright to be the new Mets cap'n because he's a young, energetic, hard-working .000 hitter who brings the team together while hitting .000 in the NLCS with a positive attitude that belies his .000 NLCS batting average.


I can only hope Eddie Jr. tanks for the whole series and makes a couple of errors at third base for good measure .

His "stubbly face" plastered on the back cover of the New York newspapers with a big, red circle and a slash through it.

I've even got an awesome headline ready to go: Wright is wrong.

Saturday, October 14, 2006

Mets' Season Slipping Away!

I keep hearing how the Mets want to grab all the back page headlines away from the Yankees.

You want the back page?

You got it.

But you're not allowed to lose a game, ever.

Friday, October 13, 2006

Next time, just stop at two.

There is no rule that says you have to stretch to come up with a list of Five Things.

You can bullet two things or just write two separate paragraphs.

For inexplicable reasons, Jon Heyman stretched logic to a breaking point to achieve a list of Five Things.

In this case, it's the Top Five Yankee Castoffs who are achieving success with the Mets:

"1. Randolph. Yankees decision-makers never envisioned Randolph as a potential replacement for Joe Torre, and in fact the Mets' solitary pause before hiring Randolph came after so-so recommendations from Yankees people."

I don't know how true this really is.

The Yankees already had their manager and Randolph was a Yankee coach for a long, long time. His success with the Yankees undoubtedly helped his resume.

Upon Torre's long-overdue departue, would Randolph had been a serious candidate? He probably would have been.

Randolph got tired of waiting and, at this rate, Randolph undoutedly made the correct career decision. At this rate, Torre will be managing the Yankees until he decides to retire ca. 2050.

Randolph is achieving success this year with the Mets, but it's not accurate to label him as a Yankee castoff.


"2. Beltran. On the day he would sign with the Mets, he offered to become a Yankee for $99 million, a $20 million discount that agent Scott Boras rarely gives. But the Yankees turned Beltran away. Instead, the object of their affection was a pitcher 15 years' Beltran's senior, Randy Johnson."

Depends on how you look at it.

In 2005, Beltran was dogmeat and the Mets only won 83 games.

In 2006, Beltran has been an MVP candidate and Johnson has been a 5.00 ERA bust. But Johnny Damon had a nice little season himself with the Yankees.

See, put this decision in the context of Game Seven of the 2004 ALCS. Downtown Kevin Brown.

The Yankees specifically decided they'd rather have Unit on the mound with Crosby in CF than have Beltran in CF with, say, Jon Lieber on the mound. Pitching and Defense, people. Remember? Pitching and defense?

Two years later, Johnson has busted, despite 35 regular season wins.

But it's hard to regret the decision to add more pitching, pitching, pitching.


Not a huge deal.

If Heyman insists, I will give him the top two: "The Yankees regret missed opportunities with Randolph and Beltran."

Now is when the list gets really goofy:

"3. Hitting coach Rick Down. The day before Down was dumped by the Yankees following the 2003 season, Torre kissed him on the cheek and told him he had nothing to worry about. The next day the call came, but not from Torre: Down was fired."

Ummm ... I'm speechless.


"4. Jeff Weaver, Kenny Rogers and Jose Contreras (in 2005). Bronx pitching flops seem to find their groove as playoff participants after they leave. Weaver pitched another gem on Thursday night, save for Beltran's two-run home run."

To be truthful, I don't think the Yankee rotation would benefit from any of these pitchers.

The headline of this article reads, "Mets prosper thanks to Yankees' many poor decisions."

But what do Weaver, Rogers, and Contreras have to do with the Mets?


"5. Strawberry. Steinbrenner loves the big names, so even this one probably hurt. Straw looked great in orange and blue, except that he still needs to learn how to drop the lowlifes that tend to hang with him (beyond Steinbrenner, I mean)."

Besides the classy dig at the 76-year-old owner of the Yankees, this is really quite a stretch.

Seven years after winning his third ring with the Yankees, Strawberry is back with the Mets.

Throwing out the first pitch.

This supposedly bothers George Steinbrenner and Yankee fans for some reason.

In all honesty, I don't recall who has been throwing out the first pitch at Yankee games recently. Maybe Rudy Giuliani, maybe Drew Barrymore, maybe Yogi Berra, maybe Ronan Tynan.

It probably wasn't a degenerate wife beater like Darryl Strawberry.

Thursday, October 12, 2006

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Hooray!

What a relief!

The speculation has ended and Joe Torre will be back to manage the Yankees in 2007.

But that's not the question that was truly answered this afternoon.

Why am I happy? Why am I relieved? I thought Felz didn't want Torre back in 2007.

Yes, that is absolutely correct, astute reader.

But a more important question has been definitively answered this afternoon. A question that Man has pondered for eons.

If this is true, then there is no God.

Hooray!

No Heaven and no Hell and no reason to go to church or synagogue!

Now millions of people can kick back and watch the NFL pregame shows on Sunday morning.

Hooray!

Monday, October 09, 2006

Managers don't make any difference.

So why does a team even have a manager in the first place?

"Just ask yourself something first. What would Lou Piniella or any other manager have done differently?"

I don't really think Piniella is the best choice. I'd go straight to Mattingly. But Piniella would certainly do a lot of things differently.


"Scream more?"


Yup, for starters.

This team needed a kick in the butt for so long, that Jason Giambi, of all people, was apparently forced to insist on some tough love.

Lou Piniella would hopefully never, ever refer to David Ortiz as "Big Papi." Ortiz gets dusted his first two at-bats at the Stadium next year. Every time Jeter gets hit by a pitch, the other team's shortstop gets hit twice.


"Hit and run less?"


Funny you should mention that, but it's a good idea. Hit and run less.

From my count, small ball tactics were 0-for-4 in the ALDS and maybe -- it's all speculation, of course -- but maybe, the .340 hitter who was just 5-for-5 doesn't need to bunt in the first inning of game two.

Would Piniella hit and run less? Maybe not.

Let's get a manager who will.


"Use the hook on one pitcher a little earlier or another a little later?"


Is Litke joking?

This is a rather insouciant dismissal of the most important decision a manager can make.

Piniella is a bad counter-example because he shreds through bullpen arms almost as quickly as Torre does.

But the Yankees lost the entire ALDS, quite possibly, when Torre let Mussina pitch to Granderson. Or maybe when Torre sent Wang to New York for a non-existent Game Five.

"A little earlier or a littler later" is kind of the "little" difference between "winning" and "losing."


"But whatever team you turn over to whomever has the manager's job next season, keep in mind that the Big Apple is no place for the meek. Torre has shown more patience than the job merited, sought less credit than he deserved, won as often as he should have and never once complained."

Joe Torre never once complained? Go read the SI article.

Joe Torre sought less credit than he deserved? Joe Torre has been focusing on his post-career speaking tour for years. He won't argue a call at third base because he's got a lot of promotional money wrapped up in the whole Classy image.

If the Big Apple is no place for the meek, then it's no place for Joe Torre.

It was a great and successful run. But this has been coming for a long time.


Don't weep for Joe Torre.

Weep for the ad managers for Bigelow Tea and Subway sandwiches.

Sunday, October 08, 2006

Give Peter Abraham a Pulitzer.

Just don't take him to Vegas with you:

"Last fall, as he contemplated leaving the job he has loved the most, Torre briefly wondered how all those books and the other keepsakes in his stadium sanctuary would fit into the trunk of his sedan.

For several days, friends now say, Torre planned to quit the Yankees and return to broadcasting. His relationship with George Steinbrenner had soured to the point where Torre felt unwanted.

...

Nearly a year later, Torre's office remains cluttered but his mind is clear. Now 66, he talks about managing the team into his 70s. A new coaching staff and an infusion of young talent have energized him, and his rapport with Steinbrenner is strong.

As the Yankees again head into the postseason, Torre is at peace.

...

'My wife keeps asking me when I'm coming home for good,' Torre said. 'I tell her I will when I stop having fun at this job. I don't think that is going to happen any time soon.' "

I'm not even arguing anymore. Okay, I'm still arguing.

I don't personally believe that ARod's past ten playoff games are predictive of his next ten. I don't understand what causes slumps and streaks, but I know a slump is always followed by a streak, and it's still just ten games of failure.

But I absolutely agree with Ian O'Connor that the ARod/fan relationship will be untenable in 2007.

Luckily for you, dear reader, even when I agree with Ian O'Connor, I still disagree:

"The Yankees have to find some young power arms somewhere, the kind of playoff arms that keep beating them, the kind belonging to Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya."

It's a good plan. Just go to the Young Power Arms store on route 17. Maybe we can find Young Power Arms on sale at Walmart.

You know what is amusing? The Yankees are constantly accused of ignoring pitching.

Mussina, Weaver, Vazquez, Johnson, Brown, Pavano, Lieber, Contreras, etc.

It's not as if they didn't try to get pitching. It's not as if Cashman drastically changed his philosophy. It's not as if Wang didn't win 19 freakin' games this season.

It's just really difficult to find effective pitchers, young or old. The minor leagues are not chock full of pitchers like Chien-Ming Wang.


"Hired mercenaries have sucked the soul out of the Yankee dynasty, leaving Torre's team vulnerable to the underdog Angels then, and the underdog Tigers now."

Please stop insulting hired mercenaries. Torre has zero rings without them.

Boggs, Cone, Key, Wells, Clemens, Fielder, Wetteland, Tino ... well, too many to list.

I'm not sure how much soul they all had (Charlie Hayes seemingly had more soul than Wade Boggs), but they were all mercenaries.

Are the 2006 Yankees too top-heavy? Perhaps.

An argument can be made that Mussina's $15 million could be better spent on a better bullpen or a deeper bench. But even that's a crap shoot. Because middle relievers tend to be erratic and bench players tend to be starters on other teams if they're any good.


"Giambi? His absurd contract can't be moved, so he must be reduced to a DH who never again gets to make a sorry throw from first base at the worst October time."

O'Connor claimed a few years ago that Giambi's contract was the worst in the history of pro sports.

Since then, Giambi has rebounded quite nicely and pretty much earned his money, certainly when compared to about 100 other major league players. Just about led the Yankees in homeruns, rbis, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage this year.

But O'Connor still has the nerve to call it an "absurd contract" rather than admit he was wrong.


"Cashman then has to find the next Scott Brosius at third, and the next Tino Martinez at first, and make the bloated likes of Rodriguez, Sheffield and Jason Giambi go poof in the night."

Must I slay these sacred cows once again?

Scott Brosius in the playoffs: 1998 World Series MVP. Overall .245/.278/.418, 8 homeruns (not bad), 30 rbis (not bad) in 200 at-bats.

Tino Martinez in the playoffs: Benched in 1996. Overall .233/.321/.351, 9 homeruns, 38 rbis in 350 at-bats.

I think a lesson can be learned for sure. After Tino tanked in the '96 playoffs, Torre stuck with him rather than throw him under the bus and Ian O'Connor probably didn't insist that the overrated mercenary get traded.


Oh, and exactly who are the "next Scott Brosius" and the "next Tino Martinez"?

You just put a .230 hitter at third base and hope he hits a couple of big homeruns in the World Series? Good plan.

How can anybody possibly know when a mediocre player is going to have a defining moment in the World Series?


For the most part, I think O'Connor's plan will be implemented.

ARod will be traded. I'm guessing the Cubs may be a likely fit. Maybe the Yankees get Aramis Ramirez straight up. Or maybe the Yankees will have to throw in Proctor. After all, the Yankees are only going to get fifty cents on the dollar for their number eight hitter.

Or maybe the Yankees sign Soriano to play third and trade ARod for five minor league pitchers.

Sheffield, Mussina, and Bernie are gone.

Unit is probably still on the team one last season as a #3 or a #4.

The Yankees stock up the minors with young pitchers and, just like the Tigers, they wait three or four years to see the results. Maybe push Hughes through the minor leagues and give Rasner a shot at the #5.

Other than that, it's an awesome plan.

Find the next Pettitte, Brosius, and Tino and make sure B.K. Kim is pitching against us in the playoffs.

The Yankees are going to win the 2013 World Series for sure.

Yeah. Him, too.

I went all in with ARod this postseason and that roll came up craps. I thought he was going to win the World Series MVP. I think he will be traded during the offseason and I think he needs to be traded. 2006 was bad enough and 2007 is shaping up to be downright unbearable for all parties involved.

Just make sure you trade him to the National League, please.

Hmmm ... doublemint ... I always liked doublemint even more than spearmint ... say, how many outs are there?

"Joe Torre chewed his gum. It was all he could do, really, as he sat in the Yankee dugout here last night. Chew his gum while watching the season - and perhaps his tenure as Yankee manager - come crashing down around him."

That's really all he could do, huh?

How about bring in a lefty to face Granderson, game two, seventh inning?

How about showing more respect for Alex Rodriguez, reigning MVP, than Tom Verducci, lapdog reporter?

How about taking the first round of the playoffs seriously?

What was the turning point of this series? Was it ARod's first-inning, bases-loaded strikeout in game 2? Was it Mussina's inability to hold a lead? Was it Kenny Rogers taking the hill?

The turning point of this series was the bad umpire call at third base. The Yankees fell behind early in game 3 and Joe Torre had a golden opportunity to fire up his team, or at least try to.

Joe Torre sat in the dugout chewing gum.


Torre's stoic, businesslike approach has now completely backfired.

It's a thin line between stoicism and disinterest, between enthusiastic professionalism and drudgery, between steadiness and stubbornness.

Yes, the players always shoulder most of the blame. But Torre sets the tone and Torre's approach has failed for several years now.

Baseball is a tough game and luck is a big part of it. I never expected the Yankees to win every year and I don't even necessarily believe losing in the playoffs requires a leadership chance.

But anybody who still defends Torre is not paying attention.

This team did not even go down swinging.

They were as meek as their manager.

Saturday, October 07, 2006

Where were you when you heard the news?

2:40 pm, Saturday, October 7th, 2006.

Alex Rodriguez is batting eighth.

If you asked me at 2:39 pm, I'd have told you that Alex Rodriguez was never going to get traded in the offseason. Now it seems inevitable.

When ARod's Yankee tenure is reviewed, you will see some great regular season stats (though still somewhat underappreciated), an MVP, a great start to the postseason, and an obviously disappointing finish to the postseason.

ARod deserves the criticism he has received for his postseason failures, though it's still a team game and he's obviously not the only Yankee player who deserves to be criticized for the team's postseason failures.

Having said that, I never thought Torre would throw a player under a bus quite like this. The SI article, batting sixth suddenly in the first game of the playoffs, batting eighth in the fourth game of the playoffs. Torre will probably put in Nick Green to pinch hit for ARod if men are on base.

It's stunning and shocking and disheartening.

It's hard to imagine this makes sense anymore strategy-wise or as a motivational ploy. I mean, gee, just take a look at the batting averages of all the guys who Joe stuck with and moved ahead of ARod in the lineup. Sheffield and Cano aren't exactly inspiring confidence, either.

Torre's treatment of ARod now seems like nothing more than a mean-spiritied way to embarrass a player and divert blame.

Can you seriously imagine the reaction if any other manager pulled a stunt like this? Reyes is 1-for-7 (.143) in the ALDS, so Randolph benches him?

The past 26 playoff at-bats are a damn shame and ARod deserves his share of ridicule for the Yankee postseason failures. But he is still a .300/.400/.550/40/120 third baseman, mark it down every year.

Don't you know the inevitable result of the impending trade?

(1) A Yankee third baseman who drives in 65 runs.

(2) A third-place finish.

(3) ARod comes back to punish them in a future playoff series.

I thought last night's Yankee loss was one of the worst since I've been alive. This morning, it got worse. This is a sad episode in Yankee history, made worse by a petty, mean-spirited manager.

Not anxious enough.

"We got a little overanxious at times," Torre said. "We're a better ballclub than that. But we couldn't do anything."

Joe Torre respects the Tigers so much, that he pulled his lineup out of a hat for games one and two of the playoffs.

Joe Torre takes the Tigers so seriously, that he puts Sheffield at first base instead of Giambi, Phillips, Cairo, Wilson, Guiel, Fasano, Mussina, or my butt. Not that Sheffield's play at first base hurt the Yankees, it's just that Torre treats the first round of the playoffs like nothing more than a tryout for the second round of the playoffs.

Joe Torre lets everybody know before the series even starts that the Yankees have so much firepower that he won't need Mariano more than one inning per game.

The Yankees did not appear overanxious against Kenny Bleepin' Rogers last night. They looked like they were playing a mid-April Sunday afternoon getaway day in Tampa.

The Yankees do not look uncomfortable vs. Detroit in the ALDS. They look very comfortable. They just ate a big plate of spaghetti in meatballs, they're lying back in the recliner, their shoes are kicked off, and they're settling down for a good round of Sunday afternoon golf on CBS. They're getting sleepy... very sleepy...


What is Joe Torre's response to the sleepwalking team? Have a meeting that is described as "somewhere between a tongue lashing and a pat on the back."

Who got the pat on the back? Bernie Williams for providing the Yankees' offensive highlight, a foul ball down the left field line?

It is the only response Torre knows. When the team is playing uninspired and listless, Torre tells them to relax more.

This is a guy who shut it down after the Yankees swept the Red Sox in mid-August. This is a guy who's bored with making the playoffs. This is a guy who says he respects the little team that "Jimmy" has over there, but he doesn't mean it. This is a guy who finally decides winning a ballgame is important when the Yankees are down 2-1 in a five-game playoff series.


Hey, Joe, next time there's a close play at third base, maybe you should check out the baseball rulebook. When your third baseman catches a ball and tags the runner before the runner reaches the base, the runner is out.

Go ahead, Joe. Put down the cup of green tea and argue with the umpire.

Friday, October 06, 2006

Tough Crowd.

While contemplating how easily Alex Rodriguez could be hitting .500 in the playoffs if a little luck were on his side, I realized that his batting average yet another example of the distorting effect of a small sample size.

With this in mind, Anthony McCarron apparently expects Derek Jeter to go 5-for-5 in every game. Either that, or McCarron just felt like writing an anti-Jeter article in a New York newspaper, for no other reason than to see what it feels like.

I haven't brushed up on my baseball record books lately, but a 1.000 playoff batting average would be, like, a record, or something.

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Five million dollars per year, folks.

I really don't know anymore. I don't know if Joe Torre speaks the same language that I speak. Maybe there's an inherent understanding that, when he speaks in absolutes, he doesn't really mean what he says.

It's not English, it's Englishish.

Example 1: Game three, Yankees down 2 games to 0, bottom of the eighth inning, score tied, Bruney or Farnsworth walk three in a row and load the bases with two outs.

Joe Torre claims he will not bring in Mariano Rivera.

Why say something like that at all when you know it's not the truth?


Example 2: "Yankees manager Joe Torre said he can pull his lineup out of a hat. He can read it frontwards, backwards or sideways. He has 'six or seven' hitters who could bat cleanup. 'But you have to put them in order,' he said."

Do you remember when Billy Martin pulled the lineup out of a hat one time? Chambliss ended up batted eighth. Hilarious.

Billy Martin was also a crazed alcoholic.

That also wasn't a playoff game.


You know what? I'm actually convinced.

Joe Torre's team is so good that he can pull the lineup out of a hat. A monkey can make the linep by throwing darts at a board. Then, the monkey can hold up the lineup card and move it around. Frontwards, backwards, and sideways. Here's a banana, you funny monkey!

As a bonus, a banana costs a lot less than $5 mill.

Cashman can use the savings to shore up the middle relief.

Sunday, October 01, 2006

Friday, September 29, 2006

Did you ever know you were my hero, Jason Whitlock?

And everything I would like to be?
I can fly higher than an eagle.
You are the wind beneath my wings:

"Lupica is an insecure, mean-spirited busybody. He’s upset because I put a clown suit on him on that show and in a follow-up column I wrote for ESPN. His little disingenuous overreaction to an opinion I’d stated previously on the show was staged to try to put me in a bad light. I guess no one had ever informed Mike that the E in ESPN stood for Entertainment. The Little Fella probably won’t let the producer (Joe Valerio) have me back on the show again. ... Lupica doesn’t like to be disagreed with, and he’s spoken so abusively to that producer for years that the producer probably doesn’t realize people are allowed to disagree with Lupica. I enjoyed my time on the show. But if the price of admission is stepping to Lupica’s drum, I’m more than happy to go without."

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Baseball writers continue to grapple with the "v" word.

Why is it so important for so many people to ignore baseball statistics as they try to determine the value of a baseball player?

This is a debate about the relative value of Derek Jeter and Jose Reyes and the numbers are right there on the page -- and the debaters still insist on ignoring the numbers:

"The essence of Derek Jeter's greatness has never had anything to do with whether he has better 'tools' than all those more 'talented' players on those other 29 teams."

Derek Jeter has been a five-tool world-class athlete for ten years.

His power doesn't quite qualify? Not enough homeruns? Okay, perhaps. He still has 350 career doubles, 50 career triples, 180 career homeruns, and a .463 career slugging percentage. He's not exactly Frank Robinson in the power department, but he's not exactly Gary Disarcina, either.

The essence of Derek Jeter's greatness as a baseball player is pure baseball-playing talent.


"And it has never had anything to do with almost all the stuff his critics bring up -- not his Zone Rating or his OPS or his VORP or anything else."

In 2006, Jeter is #2 in the entire American League in VORP. Hafner is #1, Jeter is #2.

Jeter's OPS is .897. This is 17th in the league, which is good on its own merits, but it's first among all shortstops in the league (with Tejada nipping at his heels).

Jeter's Zone Rating? His Zone Rating is .809. Yeah, that's pretty bad. Jose Reyes has a Zone Rating of .857.

Don't be afraid of statistics. Statistics can be your friend. You could have used those three statistics that his "critics" supposedly bring up and you could have proven Jeter's what? His value.


"So who cares if Jose Reyes is faster, or scores more runs, or inspires more pickoff throws? If I'm trying to win the World Series, I'll take Jeter over any shortstop in baseball."

If Reyes's 60 stolen bases throw a pitcher off his game and throw the defense into complete mayhem, then Jeter's 30 stolen bases at least throw the defense into entropic dissonance.


"Jose Reyes' impact on a game transcends conventional measures."

Sigh.

Silly me.

I was gauging his value by runs scored, runs batted in, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percetange, singles, doubles, triples, and homeruns.


"It shows in the way opposing pitchers speed their deliveries, infielders rush their throws, and Paul Lo Duca -- the Mets' No. 2 hitter -- sees lots and lots of fastballs."

Okay, dude. You win.


"It's manifested in his 63 stolen bases"
(conventional measure.) "66 extra-base hits" (conventional measure.) "he's batting .406 with runners in scoring position and two outs" (conventional measure.)


You know what? I haven't learned anything new from these clowns.

Let me figure out who's more valuable:

Jeter: .341/.414/.483, 14 hrs, 114 runs, 96 rbis.

Reyes: .301/.353/.491, 19 hrs, 120 runs, 80 rbis.

I say Jeter. The 60-point edge in on-base percentage gives Jeter the nod.

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

It warns you about that right on the ticket.

"The odds of such an occurrence seem insurmountable, yet Jay Gibbons pulled off the unimaginable feat: He hit a foul ball that injured his wife.

The scene occurred in the ninth inning of the Baltimore Orioles' game against Minnesota on Saturday. Gibbons fouled a ball straight back over the screen and into the rib cage of his wife, Laura."


It would have been truly unimaginable if she had not been at a baseball game.

Sitting behind home plate.

Watching her husband play baseball.


"It's something you think about every day here. Obviously, it's something I've talked about (to) deaf ears," said Gibbons, Baltimore's designated hitter and player representative. "I've got players coming to me every day saying that one of their family members got hit or almost got hit. I had an usher take one for my wife the other day."

The event with such insurmountable odds, that it almost happened every day.

It's so unimaginable that the players thought about it every day.

Homeruns are exciting and also effective.

"Ultimately, this is what Bud Selig and Donald Fehr have wrought, a baseball culture so myopic and home run-crazed that even Jose Reyes, who reminds us what the game was like when only the fans in the bleachers were juiced, believes the long ball is king."

Yes, this sounds like an accurate and well-rounded analysis of baseball history.

Pre-Selig players like Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, Dimaggio, Mays, Aaron, McCovey, Jackson, Schmidt, Berra, Williams, and Ott were completely ignored by fans and media.

Bud Selig and ESPN were secretly behind Bobby Thomson's shot heard 'round the world, Gehrig's four-hr game, Ruth's three-hr game in the World Series, Mazeroski's World Series walkoff, Maris's 61st, Aaron's 715th ...

I mean, who's Babe Ruth, anyway? Bob Meusel led the 1927 in stolen bases and that's why Meusel still sells so many tee shirts with the number 3 on the back.


"There was a time when players such as Reyes were what the game was all about."

Maybe so, but not in your lifetime, you lying liar. Maybe back in the 1890s when the fielders didn't even wear gloves.


"Apart from batting average, Reyes' numbers are as good or better than Phil Rizzuto's when the Scooter won the AL MVP in 1950 and light-years better than those of Barry Larkin, the last 'traditional' -- read: non-home run-hitting -- shortstop to win the award back in 1995."

Is that meant to be a pro-Reyes argument for 2006 National League MVP?

Because it's not.

Because Ryan Howard's 2006 numbers are much better than Phil Rizzuto's 1950, Barry Larkin's 1995, and also Jose Reyes's 2006.

I give Matthews credit for a new tack, though. The criteria for 2006 MVP is now how they stack up to the 1950 MVP. Freddy Sanchez could be the NL MVP using Matthews's criteria.


Also, I thought Matthews's point was that light-hitting shortstops used to win lots of MVP awards? To prove his point, he goes back to freakin' 1950? That kind of disproves his point.

It's like saying that lots of relief pitchers win MVP awards because Willie Hernandez won one in 1984.

All he's doing is underscoring the decades-long love affair with the homerun.


"But over the last 10 years, baseball has changed every bit as much as Barry Bonds' hat size. Now, the things that Reyes does are considered novelties, quaint relics of a bygone era as dead as dial-up."

How arbitrary is "last 10 years," and how easily disputable?

It's not the last 10 years. It's more like the last 100 years.

I mean, the MVP is not always a slugger. It's sometimes a leadoff batter or a middle infielder or a pitcher. If they can make a compelling argument for that particular season.

But it's purty darn easy to go back to through the decades and prove that Matthews's contention is misleading at best. I mean, Roy Campanella had 25 career stolen bases and 3 MVPs.


"The driving influence behind the MVP voting these days is television. That is where most baseball writers get their information about out-of-town players, and the next time 'SportsCenter' leads off with a guy legging out a drag bunt, stealing second, crossing to third on a groundout and scoring on a sac fly will be the first."

Again, what's with the "these days" nonsense?

How did baseball writers get their information about out-of-town players in the 1970s or the 1940s? A week-old boxscore which didn't list drag bunts? Or a guy in a radio booth reading the plays off a ticker and smacking two pieces of wood together to emulate the sound of a baseball hitting a bat? Exchanging anecdotes over a few beers at the local watering hole?


"That's the kind of things Reyes does. As the engine driving the league's best team, he should be the NL MVP. Yet, he has no chance to win the award because his value to his team and to the league is expressed in ways the highlight reels and boxscores can never capture."

Reyes has no chance to be first in the NL, mainly because of the existence of Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols, but Reyes will probably make a very nice showing in the MVP voting. Top five is my guess.

Oh, and the things Reyes does are absolutely captured in boxscores. Batting average, on-base percentage, walks, singles, doubles, triples, homeruns, runs scored, runs batted in, and steals are all captured in boxscores.


"Disruptive rather than destructive, Reyes not only sets the table, he sets the tone. When Reyes is on base, the runner becomes more important than the batter and the ball becomes a slippery seed in the grip of otherwise sure-handed infielders. And in pitching-dominated playoff baseball, that is likely to win you more games than Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard or Carlos Beltran ever will."

Nonsense.

You know, Carlos Beltran hit eight homeruns in about nine playoff at-bats in 2004. His slugging percentage was approximately 10,000. He could not cause any chaos on the basepaths because he was slowly trotting around them in an orderly manner.

Furthermore, if Wallace Matthews wants to see a man "set a tone," I'll send him a YouTube link of Pujols's two-out, ninth-inning, three-run homerun off Brad Lidge in the NLCS.

Andy Pettitte said "Oh, my God!" That ball is still flying. The crack of the beat is still reverberating.

That's what I call setting a tone and helping a team win a baseball game.


"Reyes' numbers are good but not spectacular - a .300 batting average, 19 homers, 189 hits heading into last night, 80 RBIs and 120 runs scored, more than all but three other National Leaguers, including Beltran, who had one more."

Gosh, it kills me to admit it, but those are spectacular numbers.


"He leads not just the NL, but all of Major League Baseball, in the game's most exciting plays, the triple (17) and the stolen base (60), and though he may never match Beltran for home run totals, a 30-homer season is not beyond his grasp."

Screech ...

Triples and stolen bases are baseball most exciting plays? Huh.

I have always liked the srike-'em-out-throw-'em-out double play.

I have also always liked the homerun.

See, I believe Ryan Howard's 60 homeruns are exciting and also effective. More effective than 60 stolen bases for sure.

Because, when a player hits a homerun, he scores a run 100% of the time. (As a bonus, all the runners on base score, too.)

When a players steals a base, he scores a run less than 100% of the time.

Baseball Basics.

My coworker is going to a baseball game tonight. She asked me for the basics. This is what I sent to her.

If anybody knows Wallace Matthews's email address, maybe I'll also send it to him:

1) Each pitch is a ball or a strike.
2) Four balls is a walk.
3) Three strikes is an out.
4) A foul is a strike, but not if there are already two strikes. Then, it's a do-over.
5) A "hit" is reaching a base safely. An "out" is not reaching the base safely. Usually, an out is a strike out, a fly ball that is caught, or a ground ball that is fielded and thrown the first base before the batter reaches first base.
6) Three outs in an inning.
7) The bases clear after the inning is over. If you were on second base when the inning ended, you don't start at second base when the next inning starts.
8) Nine innings in a game.
9) When the runner touches home plate, it's a "run," not a "point."

Those are the basics.

Don't worry about the infield fly rule or why a runner on first base automatically runs when there are two outs and a 3-2 count. As long as you don't call a "run" a "point," you'll sound smart.

Monday, September 25, 2006

Who's the Best, Most Outstanding, Coolest, Most Awesome, Most Valuable Player?

"First, the disclaimer: I am not an MVP voter, so what you read here is not official, merely an opinion."

I can sleep easier tonight.


"In my definition, the MVP award is not meant to go to the best, or most outstanding, player, but rather to that player most responsible for the success of his team. ... Remember, it's Most VALUABLE Player."

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Very common sentiment, though I disagree fundamentally with the criteria. Because I believe Pepe's logic collapses upon itself.

Emil Brown was more valuable for the success of his team -- however limited that team's success was -- than Jeter has been for the success of his team. Percentage-wise, anyway.

Playoff teams are typically good because they have lots of good players. Where would the Yankees be without Jeter? In the playoffs, probably.

Where would the Indians be without Travis Hafner? Mabye last place. Doesn't matter to Phil Pepe, but it probably matters to the fans in Cleveland and Kansas City.


But what is really baffling to me is this: While the term "valuable" may be vague, I don't think the terms "best" or "most outstanding" or any less vague.

Is Pepe claiming Jeter is the MOST VALUABLE player, but Jeter is not the BEST player or the MOST OUTSTANDING player? I think all of those terms are pretty much synonyms and now you're grading a player based on the effectiveness of his teammates. Miguel Cabrera doesn't pitch, you know what I'm sayin'?


There seems to be a fairly common idea that a separate "player of the year" award or "best player" award would solve this problem.

The stat junkies could satisfy their craving by giving a "player of the year" award to David Ortiz, while the baseball poets can still reward fielding, baserunning, leadership, and all the other qualities that sluggers presumably lack, by giving an MVP to a different player from a winning team.

Can you imagine?

If "most valuable" is vague and ambiguous, how about "player of the year"? What could be more vague than "player of the year"?

My personal "player of the year" is Coco Crisp because his name is funny.

Sunday, September 24, 2006

Every team thinks they're a team of destiny.

From the nj.com Yankees weblog on September 23, 2006:

"It is as fun to be a Yankee fan right now as we can remember since, oh, late October of 2000. We certainly aren't the only ones feeling the swagger of this Yankees team. Yankee Nation is alive and as frenzied as we can ever remember. We are waiting, no, clamoring for October to begin, where we will really see what this team can do."


From the nj.com Yankees weblog on October 1, 2005:

"This is one time when we just know that all the hyperbole, superlatives and cliches wouldn't describe the sheer madness of this 2005 season.

But the rational half of us screams that one thing is for certain: there is no reason this team can't win the World Series this year. Sure, they're not as good as some people thought they would be. But they're certainly not as bad as some people thought they were back in April. And best of all, after all the talk about the 2005 Yankees not being a team--that they were just a bunch of individual players playing together--they've proven that the opposite is the truth. And that's why this season has been more fun than usual. These 2005 Yankees are gritty. They are tough. And they are resilient. They are the opposite of their professionalist counterparts of seasons past.

And that's exactly why they can win the World Series."



It's really not a big deal. Every team that makes the playoffs has a chance to win it and no team has any guarantees. Every fan base ought to be excited every year their team makes the playoffs.

I am just not sure why the 2006 Yankees supposedly have newfound swagger or why the 2006 season was supposedly more fun than the others.

I don't see all that much swagger right now. I saw Mike Mussina lose a game at Tampa Bay as the Yankees lost the ALCS home field advantage to the Tigers.

How's about a little less swagger and a little more covering first base on groundballs to the right side?

The Yankees are in one league and the Mets are in the other.

Three Lupica posts in one day!

I think Lupica is proactively making excuses for the Mets just in case the Yankees defeat the Mets in the World Series:

"The Yankees will enter the 2006 postseason with a payroll, according to the current numbers from Major League Baseball, of $213 million.

The combined payroll of the other three likely playoff teams - A's, Tigers, Twins - in the American League is $222 million.

If the Yankees play the Twins in the first round, the disparity in payroll will be approximately $150 million, which means the Yankees will have the greatest single economic advantage in the history of any postseason, in any sport.

This isn't about how the Yankees spend their money.

They spend it well.

They break no rules.

They pay a high price for success in revenue sharing, and luxury taxes, even if this new stadium of theirs will be a way around some of that.

It doesn't change the fact that only in baseball can one team outspend everybody like this.

While playing by the rules, they are also playing by a different set of rules.

You know what the difference is between their payroll and somebody like the Mets'?

An entire playoff team.

The difference between the Yankees and the Mets is the A's.

Or the Twins.

That's the bottom line here, on the amazing bottom line of the Yankees."

Meanwhile, Mike Lupica thinks Omar Minaya does no wrong and Oliver Perez is going to win 20 games.

Whatever, dude. It's pretty transparent that your perspective is skewed. The Mets are the underdogs and you're Polly Purebred.

But it's downright pathetic to claim the moral high ground, to feign outrage that the Yankees outspend everyone in the American League. A Mets supporter who complains about payroll is a hypocrite.


Last week, the Mets clinched the division while playing the Florida Marlins, and Lupica smiled.

The Mets celebrated so much that night, they went through twenty cases of champagne.

Beltran, Pedro, Delgaod all make about the same as the entire Marlins payroll.

Each case of champagne that the Mets poured over their free-agent mercenary heads cost more than the entire Marlins' bullpen.

Hypocrites like Mike Lupica did not see the irony. Hypocrites like Mike Lupica were not appalled. Hypocrites like Mike Lupica don't hate payroll inequities, they just hate the Yankees.

What Fans Do.

Mike Lupica's biography reads as follows:

"He began his newspaper career with the New York Post in 1975, at the age of 23, covering the Knicks. In 1977, he became the youngest columnist ever at a New York paper when he joined the Daily News."

I can only deduce that it took Lupica thirty years to realize that fans are biased towards the players on their local team:

"If David Ortiz were a Yankee, Yankee fans would have been writing their Congressmen the last two years to get him the MVP award."

Yes, that's how it works. Of course, the major exception being Alex Rodriguez in 2005.

But, generally, the local fans and writers and coaches and teammates and batboys and hot dog vendors and smiley local morning news anchors all pull for the player from the local team.

I mean, Billy Wagner has pitched 70 whole innings and practically leads the league in blown saves (probably, in a lazy, unverified sort of way), but the Mets are pushing his supposed candidacy for the Cy Young Award.

That's how it works.

Go to an ESPN Sports Nation poll and ask if Khalil Greene is the NL MVP. He will receive 0.01% of the national vote, but 90% of the San Diego vote.

So, yeah. Lupica is stating the obvious.

Yankee fans root for Jeter in 2006, (we'll ignore 2005), and they rooted for Soriano in 2002 and Mattingly in 1986.

Red Sox fans, such as New York Daily News columnist Mike Lupica, root for David Ortiz.

Well, bully for the Phillies.

I know that Nick Swisher might score 100 runs and drive in 100 runs this season, but the gas prices in the northeast United States have fallen sharply over the past few weeks.

I know that Barry Bonds leads the NL in walks, but Pluto is no longer considered a planet.

Mike Lupica presents another baseball non sequitur:

"I know that we're already doing sketches for Bobby Abreu's plaque in Monument Park, but it's not like the Phillies exactly fell apart when he left town, right?"

Right.

Are you making a point, Monsieur Lupica?

Are you suggesting that Bob Abreu isn't a good baseball player because the Phillies are playing well in his absence? Are you arguing with a non-existent opponent that Bob Abreu is so good that no team is supposed to able to win without him? That he's supposed to be irreplaceable?

Are you so unwilling to praise any Yankee player or Yankee GM that you have to stoop to indirectly assailing them because the Phillies have played well in August and September?


Since joining the Yankees, Abreu is hitting .330/.428/.486, 30 runs, 34 rbis in 50 games. Nice.

In August, the Phillies' record was 18-11. In September, the Phillies' record ahs been 14-6. All this without Bob Abreu? How is this possible?

Maybe it has something to do with Ryan Howard, among others. In August, Howard hit .348/.464/.750, 14 hrs, 25 runs, 41 rbis. In September, Howard has hit .418/.588/.910, 9 hrs, 19 runs, 15 rbis.

Ryan Howard's surge to NL MVP is not a poor reflection on Bob Abreu or Brian Cashman.

Thursday, September 21, 2006

Captain Keyboard Courageous.

"The money quote, from Jason Giambi, is right there on the cover of Sports Illustrated, like a fastball under Alex Rodriguez's chin.

'Alex doesn't know who he is,' Giambi says of A-Rod, the SI cover boy. 'We're going to find out who he is in the next couple of months.'

Here's something we need to find out first:

Who is Jason Giambi to be saying something like that about Rodriguez?"

Who is Mike Lupica to talk smack about Jason Giambi?

Who is Mike Lupica to make fun of Johnny Damon's hair?

Who is Mike Lupica to tell Serena Williams that she ought to pay more attention to tennis?

Who is Mike Lupica to think he's Alex Rodriguez's psychologist?

Who is Mike Lupica to tell Alex Rodriguez that he shouldn't sunbathe in Central Park?:

"Now A-Rod needs to stop talking, too. He needs to stop telling us how smart he is and how good-looking he is. If he really thinks that one of the reasons people don't love him is because he's 'biracial,' as he suggests to SI's Tom Verducci, then it is worth wondering if maybe he got sunstroke that day in Central Park when he became the photo-op heard round the world. ... He also seems to be as insecure as any great athlete you will come across in any sport. He desperately needs to be loved and has put himself in a situation here where he stands right next to a guy - Jeter - who will always be loved 100 times more at Yankee Stadium. That's on Rodriguez. ... Rodriguez needs to stop analyzing himself or begging to be analyzed by sports writers."

I'll answer Lupica's question: Who is Jason Giambi to be saying something about Alex Rodriguez?

At least Giambi is ARod's teammate.

At least Jason Giambi has worn pinstripes.

Who the heck is Mike Lupica?

Jason Giambi is more of a True Yankee than Mike Lupica will ever be. For that matter, Wil Nieves is more of a True Yankee than Mike Lupica will ever be.

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Rappers are flashy with their benjamins. Bling Bling. Word.

"By their nature, the New York Yankees are an intimidating team. They flash their money like rappers, play in a stadium that oozes history and trot out five players who make more this year than the entire Florida Marlins roster."

Nothing more intimidating than a stadium oozing history.


"So it was odd, then, to see the 2005 Yankees walking around with an unnerving lack of swagger, looking more like kids on the first day of school than bullies on the playground. Their body language said as much about the Yankees as their play did, and they made a quick exit from the playoffs, going without a World Series for the fifth consecutive season."

Do you think Jeff Passan is completely making this up?

The 2005 Yankees stormed back from a rough start to win the AL East from the Red Sox. They won the AL East in a showdown at Fenway in a playoff atmosphere in the last weekend of the season.

Nobody ever knows who's going to win in the playoffs, but I think the Yankees had plenty of swagger as they headed into the first round of the 2005 playoffs. "The team that gets hot in October" and all that jazz.

Unit was fantastic in the second half. Unit was not Kevin Brown. ARod was so "comfortable" in his second season as a Yankee, that he had 48 homeruns, 130 runs batted in, and an MVP award on the way. Mariano had an ERA of 1.38. Even the Giambino had bounced back.

Jeter, Rivera, ARod, Sheffield, Matsui, Giambi, Posada, Mussina, Unit, Wang, Gordon.

Were they really walking around with an unnerving lack of swagger as they headed into the ALDS vs. the Angels?

Or is Passan just making it up because they lost?


Oh, and for accuracy's sake, the Yankees have not gone without a World Series for five consecutive seasons.

I scanned my memory banks and used the Interweb for verification.

Sure enough, Jeff Passan seems to have forgotten about the years "2001" and "2003."


Yeah, yeah. I know what he meant. The Yankees have gone five consecutive years without a World Series title.

Write what you mean, you hayseed.

Trevor Hoffman is the best closer ever.

Saturday, September 16, 2006

The Reason to Boo Big Papi.

Derek Jeter is David Ortiz's Waterloo.

But who can really blame David Ortiz?

He had no idea what he was up against. He has no idea what happens when you take on The Power of Derek Jeter:

"Nobody has ever thought of Ortiz as a bad guy."

I have!

Every time that big, stupid son of a gun has batted against the Yankees, I have thought of him as a bad guy.


"But he also said what he said, and he was dead wrong. If he feels that badly about it, he should have said so last night."

Stop hitting walkoff homeruns against the Yankees, you stupid son of a gun.


"Now Yankee fans can let him have it with a clear conscience."


Now?

Phew.

Thanks, John Harper, for giving me the go-ahead.

It's funny, because, for about three years now, I've had my eye out for David Ortiz whenever I drive. If I happen to see him crossing the street, I might get a sudden attack of amnesia whereby I get the gas pedal mixed up with the brake pedal.

"Yes, Officer, I thought I heard a noise and I thought I might have hit something. That's why I backed up and hit him again. So I could be sure."

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Wang Scratched.

Next time, try some Cruex.

Ba dum bum.

Wednesday, September 13, 2006

What About Bob?

I know it's coming.

It's gaining momentum.

It even kinda sorta makes sense.

The Yankees were in a tight pennant race with Boston. The Yankees added Bob Abreu. The Yankees quickly pulled away. Abreu has been a huge part of the Yankees' success in August and September.

But there's a problem with voting for Abreu for AL MVP.

It's the American League MVP. You can not be MVP of the American League if you only played 60 games in the American League.

Maybe next year, Bob.

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Big Papi Backlash Continues.

Eh, the anti-Ortiz article is predictable enough.

But you've got a look a little more closely to find these bizarre observations by a man who apparently thinks he's coherent enough to determine who's the MVP of major league baseball:

"Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees collected the hardware instead, despite the certain knowledge among Yankees fans that, despite a statistically terrific year, he wasn’t even the MVP of his own team."

What's the emoticon for stammering, shock, surprise?

:-0


One of my frat buddies had a barbecue over Memorial Day Weekend in Connecticut. One of our mutual friends lives in Montreal. We'll call him "George" for the sake of this story.

"George" was unable to attend the barbecue because he chose instead to drive to Toronto to see one of the last performances of the Lord of the Rings musical

Sometimes, no embellishment is needed:

"I also know that when the Red Sox lost Jason Varitek, their catcher and captain, they collapsed despite Ortiz’s continuing presence in the lineup. To me, that makes Varitek, not Ortiz, Boston’s MVP."

...