Wednesday, August 11, 2004

Overrated.

"Beltran's overall numbers look good (.263, 27 homers, 77 RBI), but with the Astros he is hitting .235 with a .316 on-base percentage in 40 games after going 0 for 4 last night."

With Esteban Loaiza already getting booed after a couple of so-so starts, I'd hate to see the fan reaction if Beltran came to New York as the CF Savior and hit .235 for his first 40 games.

If he does come to NY, I hope he proves me wrong. He'd certainly be an upgrade from the 2004 version of Bernie/Lofton/(Crosby). But I wouldn't expect anywhere near Prime Bernie and Cashman might just decide to spend his money elsewhere.

My other Beltran observation is simply disputing the notion that he's a "young" 27 years old and that his best days are ahead of him. Maybe so, maybe not. For the "maybe not" argument, please reference Edgardo Alfonzo, Nomar Garciaparra, Raul Mondesi, Carlos Baerga, countless others who seemed unstoppable when they were a "young" 27 years old. Even the suddenly-older-than-we-thought Alfonso Soriano.

Not that they're bad players -- some might make the Hall of Fame -- but I just see no reason to think that Beltran is necessarily going to get better as he gets older. Before the Yankees fork over $15 million per year, they should realize they might be getting a player who has already peaked. Most of the Beltran excitement seems to be about his untapped potential, a five-tool player who has put up good numbers already and is about to bust out. Color me skeptical.





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